Taraz are favoured to win, with a 48 % chance of triumph, a 26 % draw probability, and a 26 % chance for Tobol 2. The match is expected to produce 2.9 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2 % probability. Taraz, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Tobol 2, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 %), Under 6.5 (96.9 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.1 %), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.5 %). Taraz’s recent form shows a draw, a 1-1 result against Arys, while Tobol 2 returns from a 3-4 defeat to Khan Tengri.
Results analysis
Taraz’s recent win has kept their confidence high, and the model’s favourite, Home win, proved correct as the match finished 3-1 in their favour. The pre-match probability for a Taraz victory was 48%. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals hit, with a 98.9% probability, and the other under-goals picks - Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.1%) and Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.0%) - all came in. The match’s most likely scoreline of 2-1 (24%) was not reached, but the overall predictions were largely accurate.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Taraz win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.37
1.87
0.87
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.20
2.00
0.67
0.77
1.69
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tobol 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.33
1.67
3.00
1.67
1.67
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
1.67
3.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.4%
Under 2.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
3-1 ✓
5.5%
Taraz goals ↓
Tobol 2 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.3%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.0%
12%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.6%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.5%
5.5%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Taraz goals (down), columns = Tobol 2 goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Taraz is 1.12 points better than Tobol 2 in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Taraz is 0.38 goals worse than Tobol 2 in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Taraz is 1.00 goals better than Tobol 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Taraz or Draw✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
26%
26%
covers Taraz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz or Tobol 2✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
26%
26%
covers Taraz + Tobol 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tobol 2✗ Miss
51.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
26%
26%
covers Draw + Tobol 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Taraz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Taraz, so a minus line means Taraz give that many goals of a start and Tobol 2 receive them. At -1, Taraz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Taraz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Taraz)Actual: Draw
Taraz -2
11.6%
Draw -2
15.0%
Tobol 2 +2
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Taraz)Actual: Taraz
Taraz -1
26.6%
Draw -1
21.5%
Tobol 2 +1
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Taraz)Actual: Taraz
Taraz +1
74.1%
Draw +1
14.9%
Tobol 2 -1
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Taraz)Actual: Taraz
Taraz +2
89.0%
Draw +2
7.5%
Tobol 2 -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.64
0.92
0.42
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tobol 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.33
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.80
0.00
2.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.8%
Under 0.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.2%
Under 1.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
1.07
0.40
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.56
1.08
0.25
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tobol 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.83
1.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.00
1.67
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.0%
Under 1.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →