Tarxien Rainbows are the clear favourites, with the model assigning an 88% chance of a home win. Their recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 0-0 draw against Zabbar St. Patrick, shows they can hold their own defensively while the Rangers, playing away against a stronger side, average 0.92 goals scored and 2.25 conceded. The expected total of 4.0 goals, coupled with a 21% chance of a 6+ scoreline, signals a high-scoring affair. The most likely exact score is 3-0 for Tarxien, a 11.9% probability. Home win, draw and away win probabilities stand at 88%, 9% and 3% respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Home +2 handicap (99.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.5%), Home or Draw (96.7%), Home +1 handicap (96.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (96.5%), Under 7.5 (95.0%) and Over 1.5 (91.1%). Each pick is listed with its exact percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tarxien Rainbows win
87.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
9.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers win
3.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tarxien Rainbows
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.80
1.13
1.80
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.85
1.08
1.92
0.85
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.23
1.00
2.43
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (25)
0.96
2.28
1.00
2.31
0.92
2.25
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.1%
Under 1.5
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.9%
Under 2.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
56.3%
Under 3.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.9%
No
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
11.9%
2-0
10.6%
4-0
10.0%
3-1
7.4%
5-0
6.8%
2-1
6.6%
4-1
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
Tarxien Rainbows goals ↓
Zebbug Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
5.9%
4.3%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
2
11%
6.6%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
3
12%
7.4%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
10%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tarxien Rainbows goals (down), columns = Zebbug Rangers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Tarxien Rainbows is 1.91 points better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of average points per game (2.82 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Tarxien Rainbows is 2.29 goals better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (3.33 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Tarxien Rainbows is 1.23 goals better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 2.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tarxien Rainbows or Draw
96.7%
Avg Implied -
88%
9%
3%
covers Tarxien Rainbows + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows or Zebbug Rangers
91.0%
Avg Implied -
88%
9%
3%
covers Tarxien Rainbows + Zebbug Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zebbug Rangers
12.3%
Avg Implied -
88%
9%
3%
covers Draw + Zebbug Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5
Over
96.5%
Under
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5
Over
65.4%
Under
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 3.5
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tarxien Rainbows, so a minus line means Tarxien Rainbows give that many goals of a start and Zebbug Rangers receive them. At -1, Tarxien Rainbows must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tarxien Rainbows win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tarxien Rainbows)
Tarxien Rainbows -2
52.5%
Draw -2
20.1%
Zebbug Rangers +2
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tarxien Rainbows)
Tarxien Rainbows -1
72.6%
Draw -1
15.1%
Zebbug Rangers +1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tarxien Rainbows)
Tarxien Rainbows +1
96.7%
Draw +1
2.5%
Zebbug Rangers -1
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tarxien Rainbows)
Tarxien Rainbows +2
99.2%
Draw +2
0.7%
Zebbug Rangers -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tarxien Rainbows
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.90
0.47
0.93
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.92
0.46
1.00
0.23
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.21
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
0.88
0.23
0.77
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tarxien Rainbows
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.67
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.92
0.62
0.92
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
0.79
1.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
1.40
0.77
1.54
0.58
1.25
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -1 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
Tarxien Rainbows and Zebbug Rangers have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Tarxien Rainbows and Zebbug Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Tarxien Rainbows and Zebbug Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Tarxien Rainbows and Zebbug Rangers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →