The model favours an away win, with Rotor Volgograd’s odds at 45 %. The match is expected to be low-scoring, averaging 2.3 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1 % probability. Tekstilshchik, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages one goal scored and one conceded, while Rotor Volgograd, on the road to a weaker side, scores only 0.5 and concedes 1.5 on average. Home win probability sits at 25 %, draw at 30 %, and away win at 45 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Under 5.5 (97.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.1 %), Under 4.5 (91.8 %) and Away +2 handicap (90.9 %). Rotor’s recent form, after two straight defeats, and Tekstilshchik’s return from a loss, suggest a cautious, defensive contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tekstilshchik win
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tekstilshchik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.92
0.57
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rotor Volgograd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.97
1.53
0.73
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.08
1.42
0.92
1.07
1.21
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.0%
Under 1.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.7%
Under 2.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.9%
Under 3.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.6%
No
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.3%
1-1
14.2%
0-0
13.7%
0-2
9.8%
1-0
9.0%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.3%
Tekstilshchik goals ↓
Rotor Volgograd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
9.8%
4.1%
1.3%
1
9.0%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
2
4.3%
5.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tekstilshchik goals (down), columns = Rotor Volgograd goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Tekstilshchik is 0.54 points worse than Rotor Volgograd in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Tekstilshchik is 0.96 goals worse than Rotor Volgograd in terms of goals scored per game (0.29 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Tekstilshchik and Rotor Volgograd are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tekstilshchik
For 3.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rotor Volgograd
For 8.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tekstilshchik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
9.0
9.0
-
0.7
1.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
12.0
12.0
-
0.8
1.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
6.0
6.0
-
0.7
1.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
-
13%
22%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
-
87%
78%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rotor Volgograd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
13.0
9.0
2.2
2.4
2.0
28.5
30.0
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
11.0
13.0
9.0
1.9
2.5
1.4
28.5
30.0
27.0
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
3.3
2.2
4.4
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
30%
33%
27%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
70%
67%
73%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.6%
Under 9.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
84.7%
Under 21.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tekstilshchik or Draw
55.1%
Avg Implied -
23%
32%
45%
covers Tekstilshchik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik or Rotor Volgograd
68.2%
Avg Implied -
23%
32%
45%
covers Tekstilshchik + Rotor Volgograd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
76.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
32%
45%
covers Draw + Rotor Volgograd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tekstilshchik over/under 0.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 1.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 2.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tekstilshchik, so a minus line means Tekstilshchik give that many goals of a start and Rotor Volgograd receive them. At -1, Tekstilshchik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tekstilshchik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tekstilshchik)
Tekstilshchik -2
1.9%
Draw -2
6.0%
Rotor Volgograd +2
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tekstilshchik)
Tekstilshchik -1
7.9%
Draw -1
15.4%
Rotor Volgograd +1
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tekstilshchik)
Tekstilshchik +1
55.1%
Draw +1
24.0%
Rotor Volgograd -1
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tekstilshchik)
Tekstilshchik +2
79.0%
Draw +2
13.6%
Rotor Volgograd -2
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tekstilshchik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.17
0.43
0.00
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rotor Volgograd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.42
0.67
0.50
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tekstilshchik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tekstilshchik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.75
0.14
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.71
0.00
1.25
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Rotor Volgograd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rotor Volgograd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.33
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.65
0.75
0.42
0.64
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tekstilshchik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rotor Volgograd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
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Away +1 handicap
76.7%
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-
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Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
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-
-
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Over 23.5 fouls
73.1%
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Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
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Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Tekstilshchik's squad is €4m less valuable than Rotor Volgograd's (€5m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Tekstilshchik and Rotor Volgograd have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Tekstilshchik's midfield is €1m less valuable than Rotor Volgograd's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Tekstilshchik's defence is €2m less valuable than Rotor Volgograd's (€2m vs €4m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
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FC Sochi
Nizhny Novgorod
Veles
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
Volga Ulyanovsk
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk