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Tërbuni Pukë vs Apolonia Fier Result & Analysis

Date: 08/10/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 1-1
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
Vs
49%
30%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tërbuni Pukë win✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D21W32WH·SKE03/09A·BUR10/09H·TOM17/09A·BES01/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.751.251.501.002.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.751.251.501.002.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D52W12L30WA·KOR03/09H·TUR10/09A·BES19/09H·LUS01/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.251.004.001.000.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)2.251.004.001.000.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tërbuni Pukë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.7%
1-0
13.7%
0-0
11.9%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.9%
Tërbuni Pukë goals ↓
Apolonia Fier goals →
01234
012%7.7%3.7%1.0%0.2%
114%14%5.2%1.4%0.3%
211%8.8%3.7%1.0%0.2%
34.9%4.1%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.7%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tërbuni Pukë goals (down), columns = Apolonia Fier goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Skenderbeu Korce
1.88
Dinamo Tirana
1.76
Flamurtari
1.68
Korabi Peshkopi
1.61
Tomori Berat
1.59
Apolonia Fier
1.44
Besa Kavajë
1.42
Luzi 2008
1.40
Burreli
1.26
Lushnja
1.23
Tërbuni Pukë
1.14
Oriku
1.08
Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Pogradeci
0.00
Tërbuni Pukë is 0.31 points worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tirana
1.80
Flamurtari
1.50
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Korabi Peshkopi
1.25
Besa Kavajë
1.23
Apolonia Fier
1.19
Luzi 2008
1.12
Lushnja
1.08
Tomori Berat
1.07
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
0.96
Burreli
0.89
Turbina Cërrik
0.85
Tërbuni Pukë
0.77
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Tërbuni Pukë is 0.41 goals worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 1.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Skenderbeu Korce
0.50
Flamurtari
0.68
Korabi Peshkopi
0.89
Dinamo Tirana
0.92
Valbona
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Tomori Berat
1.04
Luzi 2008
1.04
Burreli
1.11
Apolonia Fier
1.15
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23
Oriku
1.32
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.58
Lushnja
1.62
Turbina Cërrik
1.77
Pogradeci
2.00
Tërbuni Pukë is 0.08 goals worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D22DH·SKE03/09A·BUR10/09H·TOM17/09A·BES01/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.000.500.501.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.751.000.500.501.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W10W10WA·KOR03/09H·TUR10/09A·BES19/09H·LUS01/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.250.252.000.500.500.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.250.252.000.500.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Tërbuni Pukë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W21W10WH·SKE03/09A·BUR10/09H·TOM17/09A·BES01/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.251.000.501.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.000.251.000.501.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W02L20WA·KOR03/09H·TUR10/09A·BES19/09H·LUS01/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.752.000.500.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.000.752.000.500.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tërbuni Pukë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (27)
€7m
SK (27)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SK (9)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
SK (6)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TP wins
0
Draws
0
AF wins

Head-to-head

Tërbuni Pukë vs Apolonia Fier · H/A from TP
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22ABesëlidhja Lezhë Vs TP2-3
17/09/22HTP Vs Tomori Berat2-1
10/09/22ABurreli Vs TP1-1
03/09/22HTP Vs Skenderbeu Korce1-1

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22HAF Vs Lushnja3-0
19/09/22ABesa Kavajë Vs AF2-1
10/09/22HAF Vs Turbina Cërrik5-2
03/09/22AKorabi Peshkopi Vs AF0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWW2.00
HomeDW2.00
AwayDW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals3.002.503.50
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %25%0%50%
Scored1.751.502.00
Conceded1.251.001.50
BTTS100%100%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLW1.75
HomeWW3.00
AwayDL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%100%0%
AVG goals3.255.001.50
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %75%100%50%
Over 3.5 %25%50%0%
Scored2.254.000.50
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet50%50%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce2649
50%
1.9
3713+24
1.9
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.5
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari2847
46%
1.7
4219+23
2.2
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.7
-
3Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi2845
43%
1.6
3525+10
2.1
64%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.20.9
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana2544
52%
1.8
4523+22
2.7
68%
44%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.80.9
-
5Tomori BeratTomori Berat2743
48%
1.6
2928+1
2.1
63%
41%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier2739
37%
1.4
3231+1
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë2637
38%
1.4
3226+6
2.2
54%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Luzi 2008Luzi 20082535
36%
1.4
2826+2
2.2
68%
36%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
9BurreliBurreli2734
30%
1.3
2430-6
2.0
59%
33%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
10LushnjaLushnja2632
31%
1.2
2842-14
2.7
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.6
-
11OrikuOriku2527
32%
1.1
2433-9
2.3
52%
40%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
12Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë2225
27%
1.1
1727-10
2.0
64%
36%
5%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
13Turbina CërrikTurbina Cërrik2624
23%
0.9
2246-24
2.6
69%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë2617
12%
0.7
1741-24
2.2
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.6
-
15PogradeciPogradeci10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
16ValbonaValbona10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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