This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.17
1.06
1.62
1.29
2.79
vs Stronger (20)
1.35
2.40
1.17
1.67
1.62
3.50
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.70
0.75
1.50
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.66+0.4%
Under 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.18-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.2%
1-0 ✓
8.1%
1-2
6.4%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
Ternana goals ↓
Crotone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.1%
12%
6.4%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.7%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.9%
5.8%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ternana goals (down), columns = Crotone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lecce
1.87
Cremonese
1.82
Pisa
1.76
Monza
1.76
Brescia
1.74
Ascoli
1.71
Benevento
1.66
Frosinone
1.53
Perugia
1.53
Ternana
1.42
Cittadella
1.37
Parma
1.29
Reggina
1.26
Como
1.24
Spal
1.11
Cosenza
0.92
Alessandria
0.89
Vicenza Virtus
0.89
Crotone
0.68
Pordenone
0.47
Ternana is 0.74 points better than Crotone in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benevento
1.63
Monza
1.58
Lecce
1.55
Frosinone
1.53
Ternana
1.53
Cremonese
1.50
Brescia
1.45
Ascoli
1.37
Como
1.29
Pisa
1.26
Parma
1.26
Spal
1.21
Crotone
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Cittadella
1.00
Vicenza Virtus
1.00
Alessandria
0.97
Cosenza
0.95
Reggina
0.82
Pordenone
0.76
Ternana is 0.45 goals better than Crotone in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lecce
0.82
Perugia
0.84
Pisa
0.92
Brescia
0.92
Cittadella
0.95
Monza
1.00
Cremonese
1.03
Benevento
1.03
Ascoli
1.11
Parma
1.13
Frosinone
1.18
Reggina
1.29
Spal
1.42
Como
1.42
Alessandria
1.55
Cosenza
1.55
Vicenza Virtus
1.55
Ternana
1.61
Crotone
1.61
Pordenone
1.87
Ternana and Crotone are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ternana
For 4.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.3 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
C
Crotone
For 6.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 13.4 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ternana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
10.5
4.2
4.2
4.3
29.6
30.2
29.0
vs Stronger (20)
10.9
9.8
11.9
3.6
3.4
3.7
29.1
31.2
27.3
vs Similar (30)
9.2
9.0
9.4
4.7
4.6
4.7
30.0
29.7
30.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
44%
60%
62%
68%
56%
98%
100%
96%
% under line
48%
56%
40%
38%
32%
44%
2%
0%
4%
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.0
9.3
5.0
5.5
4.5
28.0
29.3
26.6
vs Stronger (39)
9.9
10.6
9.0
5.0
5.5
4.4
27.9
29.4
26.2
vs Similar (11)
11.3
12.6
10.2
5.1
5.6
4.7
28.3
28.8
27.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
62%
50%
76%
81%
71%
84%
88%
79%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
24%
19%
29%
16%
12%
21%
This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alessandria
11.0
Brescia
10.8
Benevento
10.8
Spal
10.7
Frosinone
10.7
Pisa
10.5
Monza
10.4
Reggina
10.3
Cittadella
10.2
Crotone
10.2
Cremonese
10.2
Cosenza
10.0
Lecce
10.0
Como
10.0
Ascoli
10.0
Ternana
9.9
Pordenone
9.9
Perugia
9.6
Parma
9.5
Vicenza Virtus
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
6.1
Reggina
6.0
Pordenone
5.8
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Como
5.5
Perugia
5.5
Cittadella
5.5
Pisa
5.4
Spal
5.3
Frosinone
5.3
Monza
5.2
Cosenza
5.0
Crotone
5.0
Brescia
5.0
Benevento
5.0
Alessandria
4.9
Cremonese
4.9
Parma
4.8
Lecce
4.8
Ternana
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
34.0
Cittadella
33.7
Ascoli
32.9
Pordenone
32.8
Perugia
32.6
Pisa
32.4
Monza
32.0
Vicenza Virtus
31.9
Spal
31.8
Frosinone
31.0
Alessandria
30.9
Cremonese
30.1
Como
29.7
Ternana
29.6
Benevento
29.1
Crotone
28.0
Brescia
27.8
Cosenza
27.8
Parma
27.5
Lecce
27.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.5%
Under 9.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.5%
Under 3.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.1%
Under 21.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ternana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.73
0.93
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.57
0.86
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.94
0.88
0.88
1.00
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
0.70
0.80
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ternana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ternana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.93
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.77
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.94
0.65
1.00
0.38
0.89
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Crotone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
C
Crotone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.37
0.56
1.06
0.64
1.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
1.60
0.67
1.17
0.62
2.25
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.90
0.25
0.75
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ternana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ternana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ternana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crotone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ternana · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gastón Pereiro30%
Filippo Distefano21%
Antonio Raimondo18%
Salim Diakite16%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Filippo Sgarbi11%
Tiago Casasola11%
Gregorio Luperini8%
Lorenzo Lucchesi7%
Alessandro Celli6%
César Falletti5%
Franco Carboni5%
Andrea Favilli4%
Federico Dionisi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Łabojko35%
César Falletti32%
Salim Diakite32%
Gabriele Boloca29%
Lorenzo Lucchesi26%
Gastón Pereiro25%
Kees de Boer24%
Filippo Sgarbi22%
Gregorio Luperini22%
Lorenzo Amatucci22%
Federico Viviani20%
Iulius Marginean20%
Franco Carboni19%
Alessandro Celli19%
Federico Dionisi17%
Tommaso Vitali17%
Tiago Casasola13%
Andrea Favilli13%
Frederik Sørensen12%
Antony Iannarilli12%
Niklas Pyyhtiä10%
Antonio Raimondo10%
Costantino Favasuli10%
Filippo Distefano9%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Marco Capuano8%
Christian Dalle Mura7%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
César Falletti16%
Kees de Boer12%
Lorenzo Amatucci11%
Salim Diakite11%
Gastón Pereiro10%
Giacomo Faticanti9%
Tiago Casasola8%
Valerio Mantovani7%
Filippo Distefano6%
Gregorio Luperini6%
Niccolò Corrado6%
Jakub Łabojko4%
Lorenzo Lucchesi4%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Costantino Favasuli3%
Antonio Raimondo2%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Andrea Favilli0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Franco Carboni0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antonio Raimondo25%
Gastón Pereiro20%
César Falletti16%
Filippo Distefano12%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Andrea Favilli9%
Salim Diakite5%
Franco Carboni5%
Niklas Pyyhtiä3%
Frederik Sørensen0%
Marco Capuano0%
Federico Viviani0%
Federico Dionisi0%
Antony Iannarilli0%
Tommaso Vitali0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Tiago Casasola0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Jakub Łabojko0%
Gabriele Boloca0%
Alessandro Celli0%
Kees de Boer0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Iulius Marginean0%
Christian Dalle Mura0%
Riccardo Zoia0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Giacomo Faticanti0%
Lorenzo Amatucci0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ternana
Lecce
Cremonese
Monza
Pisa
Brescia
Ascoli
Benevento
Frosinone
Perugia
Cittadella
Parma
Reggina
Como
Spal
Cosenza
Vicenza Virtus