Tiszakecske FC’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just over one goal per match, while Ajka’s away defence has been slightly tighter, allowing fewer than a goal on average. The model favours a home win, with a 40% probability, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 28%. The expected total goals is 2.1, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Tiszakecske FC scored 1.27 goals per home game against similar opposition and conceded 1.18, whereas Ajka scored 1.0 and conceded 0.8 on the road. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 4.5 (93.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.9%), and Home +2 handicap (89.6%). Both teams are on a two-game winning streak, with Tiszakecske FC’s last win 2-1 over Nagykanizsai ULE and Ajka’s 1-0 win over Szentlőrinc SE.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tiszakecske FC win
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ajka win
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tiszakecske FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.40
1.07
1.40
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.22
1.27
1.18
1.42
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
0.88
1.29
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.15
0.88
1.38
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tiszakecske FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.1%
Under 1.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.8%
Under 2.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.2%
1-0
12.7%
0-1
9.9%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.3%
Tiszakecske FC goals ↓
Ajka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.9%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.3%
7.9%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.3%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tiszakecske FC goals (down), columns = Ajka goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Soroksar
2.67
Ajka
2.20
Kecskeméti TE
2.17
Kazincbarcikai
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.80
Karcag SE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
1.67
Szentlőrinc SE
1.40
Fehérvár FC
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Diosgyori VTK
0.80
BVSC
0.80
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.50
Csakvar
0.50
Kozarmisleny FC
0.00
Tiszakecske FC is 0.20 points worse than Ajka in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Soroksar
2.83
Karcag SE
2.00
Kecskeméti TE
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Gyirmot SE
1.83
Kazincbarcikai
1.67
Ajka
1.60
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.40
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Diosgyori VTK
1.00
Csakvar
1.00
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.83
Szeged 2011
0.80
BVSC
0.60
Kozarmisleny FC
0.50
Tiszakecske FC is 0.40 goals better than Ajka in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajka
0.60
Soroksar
0.67
Kazincbarcikai
0.83
Kecskeméti TE
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.00
Tiszakecske FC
1.17
BVSC
1.20
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Karcag SE
1.33
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
2.00
Kozarmisleny FC
2.50
Diosgyori VTK
2.60
Csakvar
2.67
Tiszakecske FC is 0.57 goals worse than Ajka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tiszakecske FC or Draw
72.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Tiszakecske FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC or Ajka
67.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Tiszakecske FC + Ajka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ajka
60.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Draw + Ajka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 1.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tiszakecske FC, so a minus line means Tiszakecske FC give that many goals of a start and Ajka receive them. At -1, Tiszakecske FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tiszakecske FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tiszakecske FC)
Tiszakecske FC -2
5.9%
Draw -2
11.9%
Ajka +2
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tiszakecske FC)
Tiszakecske FC -1
17.7%
Draw -1
22.2%
Ajka +1
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tiszakecske FC)
Tiszakecske FC +1
72.1%
Draw +1
17.5%
Ajka -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tiszakecske FC)
Tiszakecske FC +2
89.6%
Draw +2
7.6%
Ajka -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tiszakecske FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.52
0.45
0.55
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.47
0.59
0.38
0.54
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.58
0.44
0.62
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Tiszakecske FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tiszakecske FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.29
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.70
0.82
0.64
1.17
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.41
0.71
0.54
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.58
0.44
0.75
0.60
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Tiszakecske FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tiszakecske FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
KS (16)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Tiszakecske FC and Ajka have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
KS (7)
€0m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Tiszakecske FC and Ajka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (4)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
KT (2)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
KS (1)
€0m
Tiszakecske FC and Ajka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
KS (8)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Tiszakecske FC and Ajka have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Hungary: NB II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →