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Tobol 2 vs Jaiyq Prediction & Stats

Date: 15/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Vs
40%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jaiyq
Jaiyq
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Tobol 2’s recent slump, with two straight defeats and a 1-3 loss to Taraz, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, as the model projects an average of 3.4 goals. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5% chance. The model favours a home win, with a 42% probability, a draw at 24% and an away win at 33%. Tobol 2, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes 3.0, while Jaiyq, on the road, has a similar defensive profile against this tier. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.6%), Under 6.5 (94.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.9%), Under 5.5 (86.8%), Over 1.5 (86.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (83.7%) and Home +2 handicap (83.3%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol 2 win
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq win
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L02L03L40W34L13L01LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.382.251.252.501.502.00
vs Stronger (7)1.002.571.252.500.672.67
vs Similar (1)4.000.00--4.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JaiyqJaiyq

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L20W22D20W13L00D01LH·KAI08/04A·AST17/07H·KHA23/07A·SPO31/07H·TAR07/08A·EKI14/08H·KAS21/08A·AKT28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.251.250.750.751.75
vs Stronger (2)1.502.501.003.002.002.00
vs Similar (6)0.830.831.330.000.331.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
5.8%
2-0
5.7%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
5.2%
Tobol 2 goals ↓
Jaiyq goals →
01234
05.2%5.3%4.9%2.5%0.9%
15.8%12%8.0%4.1%1.6%
25.7%8.7%6.6%3.4%1.3%
33.1%4.8%3.6%1.8%0.7%
41.3%2.0%1.5%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tobol 2 goals (down), columns = Jaiyq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Tobol 2 is 0.77 points worse than Jaiyq in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2 is 0.38 goals better than Jaiyq in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Tobol 2 is 1.25 goals worse than Jaiyq in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tobol 2 or Draw
65.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
35%
covers Tobol 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 or Jaiyq
74.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
35%
covers Tobol 2 + Jaiyq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jaiyq
60.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
26%
35%
covers Draw + Jaiyq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Tobol 2, so a minus line means Tobol 2 give that many goals of a start and Jaiyq receive them. At -1, Tobol 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tobol 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 -2
8.6%
Draw -2
12.2%
Jaiyq +2
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 -1
20.8%
Draw -1
19.0%
Jaiyq +1
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 +1
65.4%
Draw +1
17.5%
Jaiyq -1
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 +2
82.9%
Draw +2
10.5%
Jaiyq -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L02L30W03L02L01LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.381.500.002.000.751.00
vs Stronger (7)0.001.710.002.000.001.33
vs Similar (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JaiyqJaiyq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W02L10W11D00D00DH·KAI08/04A·AST17/07H·KHA23/07A·SPO31/07H·TAR07/08A·EKI14/08H·KAS21/08A·AKT28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.750.250.250.75
vs Stronger (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (6)0.500.170.670.000.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L01L01L10W31W11D00DH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08H·KHA20/08A·TAR28/08H·SPO03/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.250.500.751.00
vs Stronger (7)1.000.861.250.500.671.33
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Jaiyq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JaiyqJaiyq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L10W20W10W02L00D01LH·KAI08/04A·AST17/07H·KHA23/07A·SPO31/07H·TAR07/08A·EKI14/08H·KAS21/08A·AKT28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.750.500.500.501.00
vs Stronger (2)1.001.000.002.002.000.00
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.670.000.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jaiyq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.4%-------
Under 6.595.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.5%-------
Under 5.589.8%-------
Over 1.583.6%-------
Home +2 handicap82.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.2%-------
Away +2 handicap79.2%-------
Under 4.578.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals77.1%-------
Home or Away74.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
T2 wins
0
Draws
0
JAI wins

Head-to-head

Tobol 2 vs Jaiyq · H/A from T2
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HT2 Vs Sport Academy Kairat0-1
28/08/26ATaraz Vs T23-1
20/08/26HT2 Vs Khan Tengri3-4
13/08/26AAstana II Vs T20-4
07/08/26AArys Vs T23-0
31/07/26HT2 Vs Shakhter Karagandy0-2
24/07/26ATuran Turkistan Vs T22-1
17/07/26HT2 Vs Akademiya Ontustik2-3

JaiyqJaiyq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AAktobe Jas Vs JAI1-0
21/08/26HJAI Vs Kaspij Aktau 20-0
14/08/26AEkibastuz Vs JAI3-1
07/08/26HJAI Vs Taraz2-0
31/07/26ASport Academy Kairat Vs JAI2-2
23/07/26HJAI Vs Khan Tengri2-0
17/07/26AAstana II Vs JAI1-0
08/04/26HJAI Vs Kairat Almaty1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.38
HomeLLLL0.00
AwayLLWL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%0%25%
AVG goals3.623.753.50
Over 1.5 %88%75%100%
Over 2.5 %75%50%100%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored1.381.251.50
Conceded2.252.502.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet12%0%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Jaiyq
Jaiyq
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDL1.00
HomeLWWD1.75
AwayLDLL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%50%0%
AVG goals2.252.002.50
Over 1.5 %62%75%50%
Over 2.5 %38%25%50%
Over 3.5 %38%25%50%
Scored1.001.250.75
Conceded1.250.751.75
BTTS38%25%50%
Clean Sheet38%75%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
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Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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