Tobol 2’s recent slump, with a 3-4 loss to Khan Tengri, leaves the home side vulnerable, yet their average of 1.67 goals per game at home suggests they still carry an attacking spark. Kaspij Aktau 2, fresh from a 0-0 draw against Jaiyq, has shown defensive steadiness, conceding only 0.5 goals per match away. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 50 % probability, a draw at 24 % and an away win at 26 %. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6 % chance. The match is projected to be high-scoring, with both sides expected to trade goals. Suggested picks include an Under 7.5 at 97.9 %, an Away under 3.5 goals at 94.8 %, Under 6.5 at 94.7 %, Home +2 handicap at 88.0 %, Under 5.5 at 87.9 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 86.7 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 85.7 % and Over 1.5 at 85.5 %. These selections reflect the model’s confidence that the match will stay within a modest goal range while favouring the home side’s edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tobol 2 win
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 win
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tobol 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
2.25
1.25
2.50
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.57
1.25
2.50
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspij Aktau 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.75
2.40
1.40
0.00
2.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.86
1.50
1.50
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.1%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
Tobol 2 goals ↓
Kaspij Aktau 2 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.1%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.1%
12%
7.1%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.4%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.2%
5.5%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.8%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tobol 2 goals (down), columns = Kaspij Aktau 2 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.38
Ekibastuz
1.29
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Tobol 2
0.38
Tobol 2 is 0.88 points worse than Kaspij Aktau 2 in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.38
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Jaiyq
1.12
Astana II
1.12
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.75
Tobol 2 is 0.12 goals worse than Kaspij Aktau 2 in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
0.88
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.88
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Tobol 2 is 0.50 goals worse than Kaspij Aktau 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tobol 2 or Draw
72.1%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
28%
covers Tobol 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 or Kaspij Aktau 2
74.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
28%
covers Tobol 2 + Kaspij Aktau 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaspij Aktau 2
53.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
28%
covers Draw + Kaspij Aktau 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tobol 2, so a minus line means Tobol 2 give that many goals of a start and Kaspij Aktau 2 receive them. At -1, Tobol 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tobol 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 -2
11.3%
Draw -2
14.5%
Kaspij Aktau 2 +2
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 -1
25.8%
Draw -1
20.9%
Kaspij Aktau 2 +1
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 +1
72.1%
Draw +1
15.4%
Kaspij Aktau 2 -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tobol 2)
Tobol 2 +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.2%
Kaspij Aktau 2 -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tobol 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.71
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspij Aktau 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.75
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tobol 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.86
1.25
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspij Aktau 2) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaspij Aktau 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.60
0.60
0.00
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspij Aktau 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Shakhter Karagandy
Turan Turkistan
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Taraz
Jaiyq
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2