Tobol 2 is facing off against Khan Tengri in a high-scoring matchup, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. This is driven by Tobol 2's recent form at home, where they've been conceding an average of 2.5 goals to stronger opponents, and Khan Tengri's away form, where they've been scoring an average of 0.5 goals against weaker opponents.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability. The model's selection is a home win for Tobol 2, which is the most likely result with a 50% probability. The away win is also a possibility, with a 26% probability, while the draw has a 24% chance.
Tobol 2 has been struggling at home, with four straight defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Arys. Khan Tengri, on the other hand, has been in a dismal run, losing five straight matches, including a 1-3 defeat to Akademiya Ontustik.
The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, which has an 85.3% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Tobol 2, fell short as Khan Tengri clinched a 4-3 victory, extending their winning run. The model had given the home side a 50 % probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The suggested picks were mixed: Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 %) missed, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (95.0 %) missed, Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.2 %) missed, Under 2.5 HT goals (90.6 %) missed, Home +2 handicap (88.3 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (86.7 %) hit, and Home under 1.5 HT goals (86.6 %) hit. The final score of 3-4 confirmed the away win, a surprise that overturned the model’s prediction.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tobol 2 win✗ Miss
49.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tobol 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.67
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.50
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.03
0.94
1.44
0.71
2.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (27)
0.85
1.81
1.00
1.40
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
4.6%
Tobol 2 goals ↓
Khan Tengri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.0%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.1%
11%
6.6%
3.0%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.5%
6.1%
4.2%
1.9%
0.7%
4
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tobol 2 goals (down), columns = Khan Tengri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Tobol 2 is 0.50 points worse than Khan Tengri in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2 is 0.38 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Tobol 2 is 0.50 goals worse than Khan Tengri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tobol 2 or Draw✗ Miss
73.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Tobol 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 or Khan Tengri✓ Hit
76.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Tobol 2 + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Khan Tengri✓ Hit
50.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Draw + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tobol 2, so a minus line means Tobol 2 give that many goals of a start and Khan Tengri receive them. At -1, Tobol 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tobol 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tobol 2)Actual: Khan Tengri
Tobol 2 -2
13.8%
Draw -2
15.4%
Khan Tengri +2
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tobol 2)Actual: Khan Tengri
Tobol 2 -1
29.2%
Draw -1
20.8%
Khan Tengri +1
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tobol 2)Actual: Draw
Tobol 2 +1
73.9%
Draw +1
14.3%
Khan Tengri -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tobol 2)Actual: Tobol 2
Tobol 2 +2
88.3%
Draw +2
7.6%
Khan Tengri -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tobol 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.83
0.50
0.62
0.21
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.37
0.78
0.53
0.67
0.17
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.1%
Under 0.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.3%
Under 1.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.4%
Under 2.5
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tobol 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.20
0.44
0.81
0.50
1.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
1.04
0.47
0.73
0.50
1.42
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →