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Tobol 2 vs Khan Tengri Result & Analysis

Date: 20/08/2026
Time: 10:00
Final 3-4
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Vs
50%
24%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tobol 2 is facing off against Khan Tengri in a high-scoring matchup, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. This is driven by Tobol 2's recent form at home, where they've been conceding an average of 2.5 goals to stronger opponents, and Khan Tengri's away form, where they've been scoring an average of 0.5 goals against weaker opponents.

The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability. The model's selection is a home win for Tobol 2, which is the most likely result with a 50% probability. The away win is also a possibility, with a 26% probability, while the draw has a 24% chance.

Tobol 2 has been struggling at home, with four straight defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Arys. Khan Tengri, on the other hand, has been in a dismal run, losing five straight matches, including a 1-3 defeat to Akademiya Ontustik.

The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, which has an 85.3% probability.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, a home win for Tobol 2, fell short as Khan Tengri clinched a 4-3 victory, extending their winning run. The model had given the home side a 50 % probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The suggested picks were mixed: Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 %) missed, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (95.0 %) missed, Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.2 %) missed, Under 2.5 HT goals (90.6 %) missed, Home +2 handicap (88.3 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (86.7 %) hit, and Home under 1.5 HT goals (86.6 %) hit. The final score of 3-4 confirmed the away win, a surprise that overturned the model’s prediction.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol 2 win✗ Miss
49.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L02L03L40WH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.402.001.002.501.671.67
vs Stronger (4)0.752.501.002.500.502.50
vs Similar (1)4.000.00--4.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Khan TengriKhan Tengri

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-703L17L40W13L01L01L02L01L13L00DA·ALT26/09A·IRT03/10H·EKI16/10A·AKT24/10H·KYZ09/04H·YEL16/07A·JAI23/07H·TUR30/07A·AKA06/08H·ARY15/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.832.030.941.440.712.71
vs Stronger (2)0.504.500.002.001.007.00
vs Similar (27)0.851.811.001.400.672.33
vs Weaker (1)1.003.00--1.003.00
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
4.6%
Tobol 2 goals ↓
Khan Tengri goals →
01234
04.6%4.0%3.4%1.6%0.5%
16.1%11%6.6%3.0%1.0%
26.9%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.5%6.1%4.2%1.9%0.7%
42.2%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tobol 2 goals (down), columns = Khan Tengri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Tobol 2 is 0.50 points worse than Khan Tengri in terms of average points per game (0.38 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2 is 0.38 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Tobol 2 is 0.50 goals worse than Khan Tengri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tobol 2 or Draw✗ Miss
73.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Tobol 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 or Khan Tengri✓ Hit
76.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Tobol 2 + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Khan Tengri✓ Hit
50.1%
Avg Implied -
50%
24%
26%
covers Draw + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Tobol 2, so a minus line means Tobol 2 give that many goals of a start and Khan Tengri receive them. At -1, Tobol 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tobol 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tobol 2)Actual: Khan Tengri
Tobol 2 -2
13.8%
Draw -2
15.4%
Khan Tengri +2
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tobol 2)Actual: Khan Tengri
Tobol 2 -1
29.2%
Draw -1
20.8%
Khan Tengri +1
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tobol 2)Actual: Draw
Tobol 2 +1
73.9%
Draw +1
14.3%
Khan Tengri -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tobol 2)Actual: Tobol 2
Tobol 2 +2
88.3%
Draw +2
7.6%
Khan Tengri -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L02L30WH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.200.002.001.000.67
vs Stronger (4)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Khan TengriKhan Tengri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L10W02L01L01L01L00D12L00DA·ALT26/09A·IRT03/10H·EKI16/10A·AKT24/10H·KYZ09/04H·YEL16/07A·JAI23/07H·TUR30/07A·AKA06/08H·ARY15/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.830.500.620.211.07
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (27)0.370.780.530.670.170.92
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.1%
Under 0.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.3%
Under 1.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.4%
Under 2.5
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L01L01L10WH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08A·AST13/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.801.000.500.671.00
vs Stronger (4)0.751.001.000.500.501.50
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Khan TengriKhan Tengri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L05L30W11D00D00D01L01L01L00DA·ALT26/09A·IRT03/10H·EKI16/10A·AKT24/10H·KYZ09/04H·YEL16/07A·JAI23/07H·TUR30/07A·AKA06/08H·ARY15/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.200.440.810.501.64
vs Stronger (2)0.003.500.002.000.005.00
vs Similar (27)0.481.040.470.730.501.42
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.4%-------✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.1%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals95.0%-------✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals92.2%-------✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals90.6%-------✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap88.3%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals86.7%-------✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals86.6%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals85.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.585.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals84.1%-------✗ Miss
Home or Away76.0%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals74.5%-------✓ Hit
Home or Draw73.9%-------✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap73.9%-------✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap70.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
T2 wins
0
Draws
0
KT wins

Head-to-head

Tobol 2 vs Khan Tengri · H/A from T2
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/26AAstana II Vs T20-4
07/08/26AArys Vs T23-0
31/07/26HT2 Vs Shakhter Karagandy0-2
24/07/26ATuran Turkistan Vs T22-1
17/07/26HT2 Vs Akademiya Ontustik2-3

Khan TengriKhan Tengri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/26HKT Vs Arys0-0
06/08/26AAkademiya Ontustik Vs KT3-1
30/07/26HKT Vs Turan Turkistan0-1
23/07/26AJaiyq Vs KT2-0
16/07/26HKT Vs Yelimay Semey 20-1
09/04/26HKT Vs Kyzyl-Zhar0-1
24/10/25AAktobe Jas Vs KT3-1
16/10/25HKT Vs Ekibastuz4-0
03/10/25AIrtysh Vs KT7-1
26/09/25AAltay (Kazakhstan) Vs KT3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.60
HomeLL0.00
AwayLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%0%33%
AVG goals3.403.503.33
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %80%50%100%
Over 3.5 %40%50%33%
Scored1.401.001.67
Conceded2.002.501.67
BTTS40%50%33%
Clean Sheet20%0%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.02
HomeWLLLD1.07
AwayLLLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%30%30%
AVG goals2.902.593.26
Over 1.5 %78%70%87%
Over 2.5 %48%37%61%
Over 3.5 %30%26%35%
Scored1.241.221.26
Conceded1.661.372.00
BTTS40%37%43%
Clean Sheet22%22%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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