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Tomori Berat vs Besa Kavajë Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 2-2
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
Vs
51%
30%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tomori Berat win✗ Miss
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë win✗ Miss
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W21W01L00D10W11D10W15L00D14LH·KOR07/05A·TUR18/05H·KOR23/05H·KOR02/09H·LUZ13/09A·BYL17/09H·KAS23/09A·VOR28/09H·LUS01/10A·APO07/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.131.190.690.791.64
vs Stronger (2)1.500.002.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.961.211.130.730.771.77
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W30W24L43W11D02L01L14L12LH·ORI23/04A·SKE07/05H·BUR18/05A·VOR02/09H·LUS13/09A·APO17/09A·KOR23/09H·AF 28/09A·BUR02/10H·FLA07/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.331.501.071.061.56
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (26)1.231.311.451.001.071.53
vs Weaker (3)2.001.672.501.501.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.3%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
13.0%
2-0
11.5%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
4.5%
Tomori Berat goals ↓
Besa Kavajë goals →
01234
013%7.5%3.2%0.8%0.1%
115%13%4.5%1.1%0.2%
212%8.5%3.1%0.8%0.1%
35.4%4.0%1.5%0.4%0.1%
41.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tomori Berat goals (down), columns = Besa Kavajë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Tomori Berat is 0.69 points worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of average points per game (0.52 vs 1.21).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Tomori Berat is 0.45 goals worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals scored per game (0.64 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Tomori Berat is 0.77 goals worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals conceded per game (2.18 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D00D10W10W10W02L00D11DH·KOR07/05A·TUR18/05H·KOR23/05H·KOR02/09H·LUZ13/09A·BYL17/09H·KAS23/09A·VOR28/09H·LUS01/10A·APO07/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.620.310.290.57
vs Stronger (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.460.460.600.330.310.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W11D21W10W00D01L02L01LH·ORI23/04A·SKE07/05H·BUR18/05A·VOR02/09H·LUS13/09A·APO17/09A·KOR23/09H·AF 28/09A·BUR02/10H·FLA07/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.640.500.560.62
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (26)0.580.580.550.450.600.67
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tomori Berat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D01L00D00D01L00D13L00D03LH·KOR07/05A·TUR18/05H·KOR23/05H·KOR02/09H·LUZ13/09A·BYL17/09H·KAS23/09A·VOR28/09H·LUS01/10A·APO07/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.560.380.501.07
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.500.750.530.400.461.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D20W13L22D01L02L00D12L11DH·ORI23/04A·SKE07/05H·BUR18/05A·VOR02/09H·LUS13/09A·APO17/09A·KOR23/09H·AF 28/09A·BUR02/10H·FLA07/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.790.640.500.94
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (26)0.620.770.820.640.470.87
vs Weaker (3)1.001.331.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tomori Berat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
TB wins
2
Draws
0
BK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tomori Berat vs Besa Kavajë · H/A from TB
DateH/AGameScore
05/02/23HTB Vs Besa Kavajë3-3
03/09/22ABesa Kavajë Vs TB0-0

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23AApolonia Fier Vs TB4-1
01/10/23HTB Vs Lushnja0-0
28/09/23AVora Vs TB5-1
23/09/23HTB Vs Kastrioti Krujë1-0
17/09/23ABylis Vs TB1-1
13/09/23HTB Vs Luzi 20081-0
02/09/23HTB Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0
23/05/23HTB Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-1
18/05/23ATurbina Cërrik Vs TB1-2
07/05/23HTB Vs Korabi Peshkopi3-1

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HBK Vs Flamurtari1-2
02/10/23ABurreli Vs BK4-1
28/09/23HBK Vs AF Elbasani0-1
23/09/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BK2-0
17/09/23AApolonia Fier Vs BK1-1
13/09/23HBK Vs Lushnja4-3
02/09/23AVora Vs BK4-2
18/05/23HBK Vs Burreli3-0
07/05/23ASkenderbeu Korce Vs BK0-1
23/04/23HBK Vs Oriku0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDL1.53
HomeLDWWD1.94
AwayWWDLL1.06
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%56%31%
AVG goals2.121.942.31
Over 1.5 %59%56%62%
Over 2.5 %38%33%44%
Over 3.5 %12%11%12%
Scored1.001.220.75
Conceded1.120.721.56
BTTS41%39%44%
Clean Sheet38%44%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.24
HomeLWWLL1.56
AwayWLDLL0.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%44%24%
AVG goals2.552.442.65
Over 1.5 %61%62%59%
Over 2.5 %42%44%41%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.241.441.06
Conceded1.301.001.59
BTTS42%38%47%
Clean Sheet33%44%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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