PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Tomori Berat vs Besëlidhja Lezhë Result & Analysis

Date: 05/11/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
Vs
53%
28%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tomori Berat win✓ Hit
52.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Besëlidhja Lezhë win✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W12L11D12L01L02L02LA·BES03/09H·LUS10/09A·TËR17/09H·DIN02/10A·ORI08/10H·SKE15/10A·BUR22/10A·LUZ31/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.621.381.001.000.401.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.621.381.001.000.401.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Besëlidhja Lezhë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D21W23L23L04L10W11D11DA·TUR03/09H·BES10/09A·LUS17/09H·TËR01/10A·DIN09/10H·ORI15/10A·SKE23/10H·BUR29/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.121.621.501.250.752.00
vs Stronger (2)0.502.50--0.502.50
vs Similar (6)1.331.331.501.251.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.8%
Under 2.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
12.2%
2-0
10.6%
0-0
9.7%
2-1 ✓
9.4%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
Tomori Berat goals ↓
Besëlidhja Lezhë goals →
01234
09.7%6.3%3.3%1.0%0.2%
112%13%5.2%1.5%0.3%
211%9.4%4.2%1.2%0.3%
35.6%5.0%2.2%0.6%0.1%
42.2%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tomori Berat goals (down), columns = Besëlidhja Lezhë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Skenderbeu Korce
1.88
Dinamo Tirana
1.76
Flamurtari
1.68
Korabi Peshkopi
1.61
Tomori Berat
1.59
Apolonia Fier
1.44
Besa Kavajë
1.42
Luzi 2008
1.40
Burreli
1.26
Lushnja
1.23
Tërbuni Pukë
1.14
Oriku
1.08
Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Pogradeci
0.00
Tomori Berat is 0.94 points better than Besëlidhja Lezhë in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.65).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tirana
1.80
Flamurtari
1.50
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Korabi Peshkopi
1.25
Besa Kavajë
1.23
Apolonia Fier
1.19
Luzi 2008
1.12
Lushnja
1.08
Tomori Berat
1.07
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
0.96
Burreli
0.89
Turbina Cërrik
0.85
Tërbuni Pukë
0.77
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Tomori Berat is 0.42 goals better than Besëlidhja Lezhë in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.65).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Skenderbeu Korce
0.50
Flamurtari
0.68
Korabi Peshkopi
0.89
Dinamo Tirana
0.92
Valbona
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Tomori Berat
1.04
Luzi 2008
1.04
Burreli
1.11
Apolonia Fier
1.15
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23
Oriku
1.32
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.58
Lushnja
1.62
Turbina Cërrik
1.77
Pogradeci
2.00
Tomori Berat is 0.54 goals better than Besëlidhja Lezhë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D00D11D11D01L01L01LA·BES03/09H·LUS10/09A·TËR17/09H·DIN02/10A·ORI08/10H·SKE15/10A·BUR22/10A·LUZ31/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.750.671.000.200.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.380.750.671.000.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Besëlidhja Lezhë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D22D22D02L10W01L01LA·TUR03/09H·BES10/09A·LUS17/09H·TËR01/10A·DIN09/10H·ORI15/10A·SKE23/10H·BUR29/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.121.001.000.501.25
vs Stronger (2)0.001.50--0.001.50
vs Similar (6)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tomori Berat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besëlidhja Lezhë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besëlidhja Lezhë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besëlidhja Lezhë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W12L00D01L00D01L01LA·BES03/09H·LUS10/09A·TËR17/09H·DIN02/10A·ORI08/10H·SKE15/10A·BUR22/10A·LUZ31/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.250.620.330.000.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.250.620.330.000.201.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Besëlidhja Lezhë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L01L02L00D10W10WA·TUR03/09H·BES10/09A·LUS17/09H·TËR01/10A·DIN09/10H·ORI15/10A·SKE23/10H·BUR29/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.500.500.250.250.75
vs Stronger (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
vs Similar (6)0.330.330.500.250.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %62% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tomori Berat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besëlidhja Lezhë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besëlidhja Lezhë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besëlidhja Lezhë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (27)
€7m
SK (27)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SK (9)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
SK (6)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TB wins
0
Draws
0
BL wins

Head-to-head

Tomori Berat vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · H/A from TB
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/10/22ALuzi 2008 Vs TB2-0
22/10/22ABurreli Vs TB2-0
15/10/22HTB Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-1
08/10/22AOriku Vs TB2-1
02/10/22HTB Vs Dinamo Tirana1-1
17/09/22ATërbuni Pukë Vs TB2-1
10/09/22HTB Vs Lushnja2-1
03/09/22ABesa Kavajë Vs TB0-0

Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22HBL Vs Burreli1-1
23/10/22ASkenderbeu Korce Vs BL1-1
15/10/22HBL Vs Oriku1-0
09/10/22ADinamo Tirana Vs BL4-0
01/10/22HBL Vs Tërbuni Pukë2-3
17/09/22ALushnja Vs BL3-2
10/09/22HBL Vs Besa Kavajë2-1
03/09/22ATurbina Cërrik Vs BL0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.62
HomeWDL1.33
AwayDLLLL0.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%33%0%
AVG goals2.002.002.00
Over 1.5 %75%67%80%
Over 2.5 %38%33%40%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored0.621.000.40
Conceded1.381.001.60
BTTS50%67%40%
Clean Sheet12%0%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD1.12
HomeWLWD1.75
AwayDLLD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%50%0%
AVG goals2.752.752.75
Over 1.5 %75%75%75%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %38%25%50%
Scored1.121.500.75
Conceded1.621.252.00
BTTS62%75%50%
Clean Sheet25%25%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce2649
50%
1.9
3713+24
1.9
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.5
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari2847
46%
1.7
4219+23
2.2
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.7
-
3Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi2845
43%
1.6
3525+10
2.1
64%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.20.9
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana2544
52%
1.8
4523+22
2.7
68%
44%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.80.9
-
5Tomori BeratTomori Berat2743
48%
1.6
2928+1
2.1
63%
41%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier2739
37%
1.4
3231+1
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë2637
38%
1.4
3226+6
2.2
54%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Luzi 2008Luzi 20082535
36%
1.4
2826+2
2.2
68%
36%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
9BurreliBurreli2734
30%
1.3
2430-6
2.0
59%
33%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
10LushnjaLushnja2632
31%
1.2
2842-14
2.7
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.6
-
11OrikuOriku2527
32%
1.1
2433-9
2.3
52%
40%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
12Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë2225
27%
1.1
1727-10
2.0
64%
36%
5%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
13Turbina CërrikTurbina Cërrik2624
23%
0.9
2246-24
2.6
69%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë2617
12%
0.7
1741-24
2.2
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.6
-
15PogradeciPogradeci10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
16ValbonaValbona10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

← all matches