Tondela’s recent run of three straight losses and a 0-2 defeat to União de Leiria leaves them looking fragile, while FC Porto B, after a 0-3 loss to Penafiel, are also in doubt. The odds are razor-thin: a 35% chance of a home win, 31% for a draw, and 34% for an away triumph, making a home victory the model’s pick. With an expected total of 2.3 goals, the most likely total is two, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 14.6% probability. Tondela, playing at home against a stronger side, averages just 0.2 goals scored and concedes one per match, whereas FC Porto B, on the road against a weaker opponent, nets 0.91 goals and concedes 1.55. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (97.1%) and Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tondela win
34.8%
Avg Implied 55.0% · @ 1.67
Edge
-20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.74
Dafabet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Draw
31.2%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.63
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.80
Betfair
3.70
Marathonbet
3.70
Betano
3.70
FC Porto B win
34.0%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.70
Edge
+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.85
Pinnacle
4.83
1xBet
4.82
10Bet
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tondela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.47
0.81
1.12
0.86
1.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.89
0.20
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.25
1.20
1.10
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto B
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.21
0.93
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.00
1.11
2.00
1.25
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
1.19
0.90
0.80
0.91
1.55
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.26-6.0%
Under 1.5
32.4%
@ 3.51+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.68
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.42
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.7%
@ 1.87-10.5%
Under 2.5
60.3%
@ 1.88+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.5%
@ 3.14-10.0%
Under 3.5
80.5%
@ 1.32+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
47.4%
@ 1.80-3.6%
No
52.6%
@ 1.88+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Unibet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 6.59+8.0%
0-0
11.6%@ 9.83+7.2%
1-0
10.5%@ 6.41+3.7%
0-1
10.3%@ 11.78+6.6%
2-1
7.6%@ 7.43+1.8%
1-2
7.5%@ 13.66+4.3%
2-0
6.8%@ 7.36+0.8%
0-2
6.6%@ 24.00+4.7%
Tondela goals ↓
FC Porto B goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
6.8%
7.6%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tondela goals (down), columns = FC Porto B goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Tondela is 0.14 points worse than FC Porto B in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Tondela is 0.03 goals worse than FC Porto B in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Tondela is 0.07 goals better than FC Porto B in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tondela
For 4.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto B
For 3.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 14.8 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tondela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.8
4.6
4.1
5.1
25.7
24.9
26.5
vs Stronger (16)
9.7
10.0
9.4
4.6
4.9
4.1
25.5
25.9
25.1
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.0
9.9
4.8
3.9
5.5
25.8
24.2
27.1
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
53%
50%
58%
60%
56%
80%
80%
81%
% under line
49%
47%
50%
42%
40%
44%
20%
20%
19%
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.3
5.4
5.5
5.2
21.9
19.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.4
11.0
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.7
27.8
29.0
27.0
vs Weaker (35)
11.3
9.7
12.2
4.7
4.8
4.7
19.8
15.7
22.9
% over line
64%
80%
56%
72%
76%
68%
74%
62%
82%
% under line
36%
20%
44%
28%
24%
32%
26%
38%
18%
This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.6
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Chaves
6.1
Leixoes
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Sporting CP B
6.0
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.9
Farense
5.7
União de Leiria
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.5
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
Penafiel
22.9
FC Porto B
21.9
Portimonense
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.3%
@ 2.95+16.2%
Under 9.5
52.7%
@ 1.33-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
81.8%
Under 3.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.9%
Under 21.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tondela or Draw
66.0%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.16
Edge
-14.0%
35%
31%
34%
covers Tondela + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Tondela or FC Porto B
68.8%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.23
Edge
-6.6%
35%
31%
34%
covers Tondela + FC Porto B
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Draw or FC Porto B
65.2%
Avg Implied 44.5% · @ 2.08
Edge
+20.6%
35%
31%
34%
covers Draw + FC Porto B
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tondela over/under 0.5
Over
68.2%
@ 1.15-12.6%
Under
31.8%
@ 4.83+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.65
Tondela over/under 1.5
Over
31.7%
@ 1.78-20.4%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.94+20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Tondela over/under 2.5
Over
10.9%
@ 3.42-16.2%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.27+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.41
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Tondela over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
@ 7.66-9.2%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.06+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
FC Porto B over/under 0.5
Over
67.6%
@ 1.54+7.3%
Under
32.4%
@ 2.33-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.41
BetVictor
2.38
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
FC Porto B over/under 1.5
Over
31.1%
@ 3.68+5.9%
Under
68.9%
@ 1.24-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.76
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
BetVictor
3.70
Under
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.24
FC Porto B over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
@ 9.84+0.9%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.05-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
FC Porto B over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
@ 34.00-97.2%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tondela, so a minus line means Tondela give that many goals of a start and FC Porto B receive them. At -1, Tondela must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tondela win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tondela)
Tondela -2
4.7%
@ 5.73-10.7%
Draw -2
10.2%
@ 4.65-8.9%
FC Porto B +2
85.1%
@ 1.35+19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.45
Draw
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Handicap -1 (Tondela)
Tondela -1
14.9%
@ 2.78-16.4%
Draw -1
19.9%
@ 3.35-6.1%
FC Porto B +1
65.2%
@ 2.04+22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.85
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Unibet
2.70
Draw
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.00
Away
Marathonbet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
1.83
Handicap +1 (Tondela)
Tondela +1
66.0%
@ 1.15-2.8%
Draw +1
19.6%
@ 4.25+1.0%
FC Porto B -1
14.4%
@ 6.35+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.15
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
6.35
Handicap +2 (Tondela)
Tondela +2
85.6%
Draw +2
9.9%
FC Porto B -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tondela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.44
0.50
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.44
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.50
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto B
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.48
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.45
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.4%
@ 1.36+0.4%
Under 0.5
31.6%
@ 2.89-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.8%
@ 2.70-2.6%
Under 1.5
68.2%
@ 1.41+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Under
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 6.61-3.2%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.08+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.55
William Hil
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tondela over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.9%
@ 1.71-6.6%
Under
52.1%
@ 2.05+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
Tondela over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
@ 4.64-7.3%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.16+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Tondela over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
@ 11.00-6.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
FC Porto B over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.1%
@ 2.69+2.7%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.41-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.68
10Bet
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
FC Porto B over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
@ 9.83-1.0%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
FC Porto B over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tondela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.38
0.62
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.44
0.20
0.80
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto B
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.71
0.36
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.56
1.50
0.50
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.43
0.57
0.40
0.30
0.45
0.82
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.8%
@ 1.22+0.8%
Under 0.5
23.2%
@ 3.85-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
Betano
3.95
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
William Hil
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.1%
@ 2.06-5.3%
Under 1.5
59.9%
@ 1.71+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
@ 4.29-6.5%
Under 2.5
84.9%
@ 1.18+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tondela over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
@ 1.49-4.4%
Under
42.2%
@ 2.46+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Tondela over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.1%
@ 3.29-7.2%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.29+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Tondela over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
@ 8.23-6.2%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.04+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
FC Porto B over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.3%
@ 2.21+4.2%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.60-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
FC Porto B over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.4%
@ 7.40-0.1%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.06+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.60
10Bet
7.50
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
FC Porto B over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
+5.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+9.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.2%
Over 2.5 cards
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+7.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+1.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-0.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+3.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
89.1%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+16.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+0.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
+7.3%
Home +2 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
1.35
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
-
-
+19.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
+6.5%
Over 3.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.5%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+10.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.29
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
-
+7.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.8%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+0.8%
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.5%
Over 21.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tondela · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Pedro Henryque15%
Bebeto12%
Emmanuel Maviram10%
João Silva8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Cicero6%
Makan Aïko6%
Rodrigo Conceição5%
Jordan Siebatcheu5%
Sphephelo Sithole4%
Joe Hodge4%
Tiago Manso4%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Hugo Félix0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rémy Vita50%
Brayan Medina36%
Cicero33%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka30%
Tiago Manso25%
Miro25%
João Afonso23%
Sphephelo Sithole23%
Pedro Henryque21%
Rodrigo Conceição20%
Emmanuel Maviram20%
Christian Marques19%
Rony Lopes19%
Bebeto17%
Afonso Rodrigues14%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Joe Hodge12%
Makan Aïko11%
Juan Rodríguez10%
João Silva8%
Moudjatovic8%
Ivan Cavaleiro8%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Bernardo Fontes6%
Hélder Tavares5%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
André Ceitil0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Yarlen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Makan Aïko11%
Rony Lopes6%
Pedro Henryque6%
Cicero6%
Emmanuel Maviram5%
Brayan Medina4%
Joe Hodge4%
Hugo Félix4%
Tiago Manso4%
Jordan Siebatcheu0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Yefrei Rodriguez0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Henryque30%
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Makan Aïko6%
Juan Rodríguez3%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Cicero0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Tiago Manso0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Joe Hodge0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
FC Porto B · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Duarte Cunha40%
Leonardo Vonić33%
Brayan Caicedo33%
André Miranda25%
Tiago Andrade22%
Gonçalo Sousa22%
Bernardo Lima20%
Mateus Mide20%
Kauê14%
Domingos Andrade11%
João Teixeira10%
Yann Karamoh0%
João Costa0%
Lipe0%
Gabriel Brás0%
Luis Gomes0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
Dinis Rodrigues0%
André Oliveira0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Pedro Lima0%
Kaio Henrique0%
Tiago Silva0%
Yoan Pereira0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayan Caicedo67%
Pedro Lima67%
Luis Gomes40%
André Oliveira40%
Mateus Mide40%
Yann Karamoh33%
Yoan Pereira33%
Dinis Rodrigues29%
Kaio Henrique27%
André Miranda25%
Leonardo Vonić22%
Bernardo Lima20%
Trofim Melnichenko12%
Domingos Andrade11%
Tiago Andrade11%
Gonçalo Sousa11%
Lipe10%
João Costa0%
Gabriel Brás0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
João Teixeira0%
Kauê0%
Tiago Silva0%
Duarte Cunha0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Lima33%
André Miranda25%
Gonçalo Sousa22%
Gabriel Brás20%
Luis Gomes20%
Bernardo Lima20%
Mateus Mide20%
Yann Karamoh0%
João Costa0%
Domingos Andrade0%
Leonardo Vonić0%
Lipe0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
Tiago Andrade0%
Dinis Rodrigues0%
André Oliveira0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
João Teixeira0%
Kauê0%
Brayan Caicedo0%
Kaio Henrique0%
Tiago Silva0%
Yoan Pereira0%
Duarte Cunha0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Trofim Melnichenko12%
Tiago Andrade11%
Yann Karamoh0%
João Costa0%
Domingos Andrade0%
Leonardo Vonić0%
Lipe0%
Gabriel Brás0%
Luis Gomes0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
Dinis Rodrigues0%
André Oliveira0%
João Teixeira0%
Gonçalo Sousa0%
Kauê0%
Brayan Caicedo0%
Pedro Lima0%
Kaio Henrique0%
Bernardo Lima0%
Tiago Silva0%
André Miranda0%
Yoan Pereira0%
Duarte Cunha0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
Mateus Mide0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Tondela's squad is €19m less valuable than FC Porto B's (€10m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Tondela's attack is €10m less valuable than FC Porto B's (€2m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Tondela's midfield is €5m less valuable than FC Porto B's (€1m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Tondela's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Porto B's (€6m vs €9m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves