This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.93
0.94
1.12
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.80
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.96
0.86
1.14
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.5%
0-0
10.0%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.2%
Tondela goals ↓
Leixoes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.2%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.7%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.6%
3.9%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tondela goals (down), columns = Leixoes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Tondela is 0.68 points better than Leixoes in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Tondela is 0.62 goals better than Leixoes in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Tondela is 0.21 goals better than Leixoes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Tondela is 3.8 percentage points worse than Leixoes in terms of average possession (47% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tondela
For 6.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 11.6 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leixoes
For 4.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.1 · Against 11.0 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tondela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.6
10.4
4.4
4.7
4.0
26.9
25.4
28.5
vs Stronger (6)
11.0
11.7
10.0
6.2
4.2
10.0
28.6
28.7
28.5
vs Similar (39)
10.7
11.2
10.1
4.3
5.2
3.6
26.8
24.5
29.4
vs Weaker (5)
13.5
17.0
12.3
2.6
1.5
3.3
25.5
30.0
24.0
% over line
70%
68%
72%
64%
71%
58%
82%
75%
89%
% under line
30%
32%
28%
36%
29%
42%
18%
25%
11%
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.1
5.0
5.1
4.9
29.4
30.8
28.1
vs Stronger (13)
8.1
7.2
8.8
5.5
5.6
5.5
30.5
31.4
29.8
vs Similar (37)
10.6
10.5
10.6
4.8
5.0
4.6
29.0
30.6
27.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
40%
47%
84%
88%
80%
92%
95%
90%
% under line
56%
60%
53%
16%
12%
20%
8%
5%
10%
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Feirense
11.6
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
10.9
Portimonense
10.7
Penafiel
10.6
União de Leiria
10.5
Chaves
10.5
FC Porto B
10.3
Torreense
10.2
Benfica B
10.1
Mafra
10.0
Vizela
10.0
Academico Viseu
9.9
Pacos Ferreira
9.9
Maritimo
9.8
Leixoes
9.7
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Alverca
9.0
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
6.2
Maritimo
5.9
Chaves
5.9
Leixoes
5.5
Oliveirense
5.5
Portimonense
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Vizela
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
FC Porto B
5.1
Tondela
5.1
União de Leiria
5.0
Torreense
4.9
Feirense
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.8
Mafra
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
30.2
Leixoes
29.4
Maritimo
28.7
Oliveirense
28.1
Chaves
28.1
Vizela
27.5
Penafiel
27.4
Portimonense
27.1
Tondela
27.1
Torreense
25.6
Benfica B
25.5
União de Leiria
25.0
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Feirense
25.0
Mafra
24.5
Academico Viseu
24.3
FC Porto B
24.2
Alverca
19.0
Felgueiras 1932
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.7%
Under 9.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
77.2%
Under 3.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
72.3%
Under 21.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tondela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.71
0.43
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.71
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.57
0.29
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.30
0.50
0.43
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tondela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tondela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.64
0.93
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.62
0.70
1.00
0.93
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.44
0.62
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.14
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.20
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.65
0.36
0.71
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tondela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tondela
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Miro38%
Costinha25%
Moudja Sie Ouattara25%
Rodrigo Ramos25%
Hélder Tavares20%
Pedro Henryque14%
André Ceitil14%
Ricardo Alves12%
Roberto12%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Talocha0%
Xavier0%
Cicero0%
Tiago Manso0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tiago Manso38%
Costinha25%
Rodrigo Ramos25%
Nuno Cunha25%
Talocha20%
Hélder Tavares20%
André Ceitil14%
João Afonso12%
Roberto12%
Miro12%
Pedro Henryque0%
Bebeto0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Xavier0%
Cicero0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Costinha25%
Hélder Tavares20%
Pedro Henryque14%
André Ceitil14%
Emmanuel Maviram12%
Rodrigo Ramos12%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Talocha0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Xavier0%
Cicero0%
Roberto0%
Tiago Manso0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Miro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miro38%
Pedro Henryque14%
André Ceitil14%
Roberto12%
Rodrigo Ramos12%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Talocha0%
Costinha0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Xavier0%
Cicero0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Tiago Manso0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Leixoes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Martins40%
José Bica33%
Ricardo Valente25%
Simãozinho25%
André Simões0%
Rafael Santos0%
André André0%
Henrique0%
Hugo Basto0%
Fabinho0%
Jean Felipe0%
Rafael Vieira0%
João Amorim0%
Daniel Figueira0%
Regis Ndo0%
Paulité0%
Werton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
André André50%
Simãozinho50%
Hugo Basto40%
Rafael Martins20%
Fabinho17%
André Simões0%
Rafael Santos0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Henrique0%
Jean Felipe0%
Rafael Vieira0%
João Amorim0%
Daniel Figueira0%
Regis Ndo0%
Paulité0%
José Bica0%
Werton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Simãozinho25%
Paulité25%
André Simões20%
Henrique20%
Rafael Santos0%
Rafael Martins0%
André André0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Hugo Basto0%
Fabinho0%
Jean Felipe0%
Rafael Vieira0%
João Amorim0%
Daniel Figueira0%
Regis Ndo0%
José Bica0%
Werton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
José Bica100%
André Simões0%
Rafael Santos0%
Rafael Martins0%
André André0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Henrique0%
Hugo Basto0%
Fabinho0%
Jean Felipe0%
Rafael Vieira0%
João Amorim0%
Simãozinho0%
Daniel Figueira0%
Regis Ndo0%
Paulité0%
Werton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Tondela's squad is €5m more valuable than Leixoes's (€10m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Tondela and Leixoes have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Tondela and Leixoes have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Tondela's defence is €4m more valuable than Leixoes's (€6m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses