Torpedo Moskva is coming off a defeat, having lost 0-1 to Arsenal Tula, and this recent form note sets the stage for a closely contested match against FC Sochi. The model's favoured match result is a home win, indicating a slight edge for Torpedo Moskva, with a 41% probability of winning at home, 28% chance of a draw, and 31% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2, and the most likely score being 1-1 with a 13.1% probability.
In terms of recent form, Torpedo Moskva has a strong home scoring record, averaging 1.58 goals per match, while conceding an average of 1 goal per match. FC Sochi, on the other hand, has a weaker away scoring record, averaging 1.29 goals per match, but concedes an average of 2 goals per match.
The model's selections include Under 21.5 fouls (100% probability), Under 9.5 corners (99.9% probability with a 50% edge), and Over 1.5 (77.7% probability with a 9% edge). The home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 31%.
In a stunning upset, FC Sochi secured a 1-2 away win over Torpedo Moskva, extending their win streak and halting the home team's momentum. This result is a surprise given the pre-match favourite, Torpedo Moskva, had a 47% chance of winning. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was Away win. The model's selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit, with a probability of 76.5%, while Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 71.8%.
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.56 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.21 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.97 | 1.40 | 1.93 | 1.07 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.92 | 2.67 | 1.14 | 3.29 | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.62 | 0.75 | 1.33 | 2.11 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Sochi goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.7% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.3% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Torpedo Moskva
FC Sochi
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 32.0 | - | 32.0 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (42) | 8.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 32.0 | - | 32.0 |
| vs Weaker (7) | - | - | - | 2.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 100% | 0% | 36% | 38% | 33% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 0% | 100% | 64% | 62% | 67% | 0% | - | 0% |
FC Sochi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 27.1 | 26.1 | 28.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 26.8 | 25.2 | 28.5 |
| vs Similar (32) | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 27.3 | 26.8 | 27.7 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 10.0 | - | 10.0 | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 52% | 62% | 41% | 62% | 60% | 64% | 94% | 93% | 94% |
| % under line | 48% | 38% | 59% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.17 | 0.29 | 1.57 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.43 | 0.88 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.21 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.86 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 0.78 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.6% | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +6.3% | - |
| Under 3.5 | 76.5% | 1.22 | 1.26 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.19 | - | +1.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | +3.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 29/09/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/04/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 17/07/22 | H | 1-3 |
Torpedo Moskva| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
FC Sochi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |