This match between Torpedo Zhodino and Dinamo Brest looks finely balanced, with a recent storyline emerging from the contrasting recent forms of the two teams. Torpedo Zhodino has struggled lately, suffering two straight defeats, while Dinamo Brest has been on a three-game winning run. The model predicts a home win for Torpedo Zhodino, with a 40% chance of success, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of an away win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.6, suggesting a low-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.9%. Torpedo Zhodino has scored an average of 1.33 goals at home, conceding 1.22 goals, while Dinamo Brest has scored 1.27 goals away, conceding 1.09 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with the suggested picks including Under 9.5 corners (100%), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), Under 3.5 goals (74.4%), Over 1.5 goals (73.8% with a 5% edge), and Under 3.5 cards (70.5%). The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 40%, 29%, and 31% respectively.
In a shocking turn of events, Dinamo Brest stunned Torpedo Zhodino with a 0-1 away win, extending their four-game winning run. This result marks a surprise upset, as Torpedo Zhodino were the pre-match favourite, with a 40% chance of winning. However, the model's call was incorrect, as it had selected Torpedo Zhodino to win.
The model's selection, Torpedo Zhodino, MISSED its predicted outcome. Dinamo Brest, on the other hand, was the model's selection to win under 3.5 goals, which HIT, with a 74.4% probability. The model also selected Under 9.5 corners, which MISSED, and Under 21.5 fouls, which MISSED, both with 100% probability. Over 1.5 goals, which MISSED, had a 73.8% probability, and Under 3.5 cards, which MISSED, had a 70.5% probability.
Torpedo Zhodino| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.13 | 1.67 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.06 | 1.41 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 0.75 | 1.62 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.08 | 0.83 | 2.17 | 1.17 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Brest| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 0.97 | 1.94 | 0.69 | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.64 | 0.84 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Dinamo Brest goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 14% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
Torpedo Zhodino| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | - | - | - | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (17) | - | - | - | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 22% | 20% | 24% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 78% | 80% | 76% | - | - | - |
Dinamo Brest| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 24.0 | 24.0 | - |
| vs Stronger (6) | - | - | - | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 24.0 | 24.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | - | - | - | 1.7 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 28% | 15% | 42% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 72% | 85% | 58% | 0% | 0% | - |
Torpedo Zhodino| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Brest| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.30 | 1.06 | 0.19 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 0.28 | 1.07 | 0.14 | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Zhodino| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.41 | 0.82 | 0.56 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.42 | 0.42 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Brest| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.76 | 0.56 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 92.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 74.4% | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | - | -0.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.8% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | +5.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/04/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/10/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 24/05/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/08/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/03/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/11/22 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/07/22 | A | 0-1 |
Torpedo Zhodino| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 09/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 29/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 1-1 |
Dinamo Brest| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 07/11/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 31/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/10/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 | Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 | Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 | FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 | Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 | ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 | Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 | Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 | Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 | Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 | Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |