Torpedo Zhodino are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance to a home win. Their recent victory over Arsenal (4-2) fuels confidence, while Dnepr Mogilev’s away form is weak, conceding four goals per game against stronger opposition. The expected total is 3.1 goals, yet the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 10.5%. Torpedo’s home form shows an average of 2.25 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker teams, whereas Dnepr’s away form yields zero goals scored and four conceded to stronger sides. The model’s suggested picks are: Over 2.5 cards - 87%; Over 1.5 - 81.8%; Over 3.5 cards - 72.6%; Under 11.5 corners - 70.2%. The probabilities for the match result are 62% home win, 22% draw, and 16% away win.
Results analysis
The win for Torpedo Zhodino, a 1-0 result, extends their recent victory streak and confirms the model’s pick of a home win, which the model assigned a 62% probability. The actual total of one goal was far below the expected 3.1 and the most likely total of two goals, with a 23% chance, proved wrong. The model’s favourite was correct, but the suggested pick of Over 1.5, with an 81.8% probability, missed. Torpedo’s form at home, scoring an average of 2.25 goals and conceding only one, contrasted sharply with Dnepr’s away struggles, averaging zero goals scored and conceding four. The match finished 1-0 in favour of the home side.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino win✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✗ Miss
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.60
1.20
1.09
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.08
1.17
1.33
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
1.12
2.25
1.00
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.95
2.52
1.09
2.82
0.80
2.20
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.50
0.33
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
2.53
1.38
3.12
0.89
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
1-0 ✓
8.9%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
4.8%
Torpedo Zhodino goals ↓
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
3.6%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.9%
10%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.2%
6.9%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.7%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Zhodino goals (down), columns = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
Torpedo Zhodino is 1.03 points better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
Torpedo Zhodino is 0.47 goals better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
Torpedo Zhodino is 1.37 goals better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 2.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino
For 4.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Zhodino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (21)
8.5
8.6
8.0
1.2
2.2
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
8.6
8.8
8.0
1.9
3.7
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (8)
8.0
8.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
40%
0%
19%
40%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
67%
60%
100%
81%
60%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.6
FC Minsk
12.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.8
Belshina
10.5
Dinamo Brest
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.6
FC Gomel
9.4
Neman
9.0
FC Vitebsk
8.8
Torpedo Zhodino
8.5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
6.4
Belshina
5.5
FC Minsk
5.3
Torpedo Zhodino
5.0
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.4
FC Slutsk
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.8
FC Gomel
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.6%
Under 9.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.6%
Under 3.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Zhodino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.62
0.90
0.70
0.91
0.55
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.83
0.83
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.19
1.10
0.18
1.09
0.20
1.10
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.67
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.24
1.06
0.25
1.25
0.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Zhodino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.48
0.70
0.50
0.18
0.45
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.46
0.33
0.50
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
62% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
1.43
0.91
1.73
0.60
1.10
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.47
1.12
1.88
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Torpedo Zhodino's squad is €2m more valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
Torpedo Zhodino and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Torpedo Zhodino and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Torpedo Zhodino and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Bate Borisov
Dinamo Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
Neman
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
FC Slutsk
Belshina
Dinamo Brest
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk