Torpedo Zhodino are tipped to win, with a 60% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of Naftan triumphing. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.6% chance. Torpedo’s home form shows they average 1.83 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded against weaker opposition, while Naftan’s away record against stronger teams yields 1.17 goals scored and 3.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 84.1%, Over 8.5 corners at 77.0%, Over 1.5 at 77.0% (hit), Under 3.5 at 70.5% (hit), Under 4.5 cards at 70.3% (hit) and Over 2.5 cards at 70.1% (miss). The match is expected to be a home win with a 1-1 draw unlikely, but the 2-1 result is the most probable final score.
Results analysis
The match saw Torpedo Zhodino extend their recent win streak, while Naftan struggled after a series of defeats. The final score was 2-1, confirming the home win that the model had picked with a 60% probability, and the prediction was correct. The model’s selection of Under 5.5 cards, with an 84.1% chance, hit, as did the Over 1.5 (77.0%) and Under 3.5 (70.5%) picks. Under 4.5 cards, at 70.3%, also came in, but the Over 2.5 cards (70.1%) missed. All outcomes were settled, and the model’s choices largely matched the actual events.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino win✓ Hit
59.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftan win✗ Miss
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.40
0.80
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.78
1.11
1.11
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.50
1.83
0.33
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.10
0.80
1.87
1.20
2.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
3.00
0.00
2.50
1.17
3.50
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.50
1.33
1.44
1.22
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-0
11.2%
1-0
11.0%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
4.6%
Torpedo Zhodino goals ↓
Naftan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.6%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.6%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.0%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.3%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Zhodino goals (down), columns = Naftan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino is 1.07 points better than Naftan in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
Torpedo Zhodino is 0.50 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
Torpedo Zhodino is 0.71 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino
For 6.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Naftan
For 4.9 · Against 9.0 · Total 13.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Zhodino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.2
2.0
1.7
2.2
27.0
-
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
8.8
9.0
8.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
27.0
-
27.0
vs Weaker (19)
12.3
12.2
12.4
1.5
0.9
2.2
-
-
-
% over line
62%
64%
58%
28%
24%
32%
100%
-
100%
% under line
38%
36%
42%
72%
76%
68%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.1
12.7
13.6
1.8
1.9
1.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
12.1
11.4
12.8
2.6
2.4
2.8
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
13.9
13.5
14.3
1.6
1.9
1.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
83%
92%
73%
20%
21%
19%
-
-
-
% under line
17%
8%
27%
80%
79%
81%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.1
Dinamo Brest
11.2
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.6
FC Gomel
10.2
FC Slutsk
10.2
Smorgon
10.1
Torpedo Zhodino
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.6
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.6
Neman
9.6
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
4.8
FC Minsk
4.6
Bate Borisov
4.5
Dinamo Minsk
4.5
FC Vitebsk
4.4
Slavia Mozyr
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.3
Neman
4.3
Smorgon
4.2
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.2
Torpedo Zhodino
4.1
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.0
FC Slutsk
3.9
FC Gomel
3.9
Naftan
3.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
66.2%
Under 9.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.9%
Under 3.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Zhodino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.37
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.22
0.61
0.22
0.89
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.40
1.07
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.25
0.00
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.72
0.67
0.78
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Zhodino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
1.07
0.27
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.17
0.89
0.22
0.67
0.11
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.17
0.40
0.80
0.60
1.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.78
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Torpedo Zhodino's squad is €3m more valuable than Naftan's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Torpedo Zhodino's attack is €1m more valuable than Naftan's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Torpedo Zhodino and Naftan have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
Torpedo Zhodino's defence is €1m more valuable than Naftan's (€2m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Neman
Dinamo Brest
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov
FC Slutsk
Arsenal (Belarus)
Slavia Mozyr
Smorgon
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Niva