Torpedo Zhodino are tipped to take the win, with a 55% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 18% for a Naftan victory. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0, a 12.8% chance. Torpedo’s home form is strong against weaker opponents, scoring 2.25 goals per game and conceding just one. Naftan, playing away against a stronger side, have yet to score in recent outings and have conceded 2.25 goals on average. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 76.6% probability and Over 1.5 with a 71.6% probability. The model’s selections also highlight the edge on the Under 3.5 pick.
Results analysis
The win extends Torpedo Zhodino’s recent run, as they came off a 4-2 victory over Arsenal (Belarus). Naftan, after three straight defeats, fell 4-2, confirming the home side’s advantage. The final score of 4-2 was well above the model’s expected total of 2.5, and the actual result matched the model’s pick of a home win, which was correct. The model’s favourite, Home win, had a 55% probability. The suggested pick Under 3.5, with a 76.6% chance, missed, while Over 1.5, at 71.6%, hit. The match delivered more goals than anticipated, underscoring Torpedo’s offensive potency.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino win✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftan win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.83
1.73
0.87
1.27
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.00
1.60
0.80
0.89
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.56
2.25
1.00
2.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.47
1.33
1.60
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
2.44
1.00
2.60
0.00
2.25
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.05
1.50
1.10
0.91
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.8%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
11.4%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.1%
Torpedo Zhodino goals ↓
Naftan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
5.9%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.4%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.5%
2.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torpedo Zhodino goals (down), columns = Naftan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
Torpedo Zhodino is 0.70 points better than Naftan in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
Torpedo Zhodino is 0.27 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
Torpedo Zhodino is 0.83 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torpedo Zhodino
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.2 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Naftan
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.3 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Zhodino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
1.9
2.2
1.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
-
-
-
2.3
2.4
2.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (16)
-
-
-
1.5
1.9
1.2
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
20%
16%
24%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
80%
84%
76%
-
-
-
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
2.9
2.5
3.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
2.5
2.2
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
-
-
-
3.0
2.6
3.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
34%
32%
36%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
66%
68%
64%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Naftan
12.0
FC Slutsk
11.7
Bate Borisov
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
Dinamo Brest
10.5
Neman
10.3
FC Gomel
10.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.0
Torpedo Zhodino
9.5
FC Vitebsk
9.0
Slavia Mozyr
8.8
FC Minsk
8.0
Smorgon
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.9
Slavia Mozyr
3.7
Bate Borisov
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.4
FC Gomel
3.3
Naftan
3.2
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
Dinamo Brest
3.1
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Neman
2.8
FC Slutsk
2.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Smorgon
24.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torpedo Zhodino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.22
0.75
0.50
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.67
0.93
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.44
0.40
1.40
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.80
0.70
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torpedo Zhodino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.13
0.47
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.53
1.00
0.40
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.43
0.70
0.40
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
Torpedo Zhodino's squad is €3m more valuable than Naftan's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
Torpedo Zhodino's attack is €1m more valuable than Naftan's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Torpedo Zhodino and Naftan have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
Torpedo Zhodino's defence is €1m more valuable than Naftan's (€2m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ML Vitebsk
Dinamo Minsk
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Neman
FC Gomel
Bate Borisov
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
Smorgon
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina