Torreense are tipped to win, with a 47% chance of victory against Vizela’s 24% chance of triumph and a 29% chance of a draw. The model expects a modest 2.4 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.8% probability. At home, Torreense averages 1.55 goals scored and 0.64 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Vizela, on the road, averages 0.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded versus comparable opposition. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (96.4% with a 4% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9% with a 6% edge). Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, adding a cautious tone to the encounter.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong as Vizela claimed a 3-0 victory. The model had given the home side a 47% chance of triumph, but the away team turned the tables. Torreense had been coming off a defeat, while Vizela entered on a win, and the final score of 0-3 confirmed the upset. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (96.4%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4%). Each probability was expressed as a percentage and the outcomes were recorded exactly as given.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torreense win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied 46.5% · @ 1.97
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.03
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.23
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.39
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Vizela win✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.65
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Dafabet
3.85
1xBet
3.79
Marathonbet
3.78
Superbet
3.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torreense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.90
1.64
0.86
1.12
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.48
0.86
1.55
0.64
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
1.00
2.00
1.67
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
1.19
1.25
0.71
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.36
1.21
1.29
0.64
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.33+0.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
@ 3.09-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Superbet
3.05
1xBet
3.04
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 2.06-2.3%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.71+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Betano
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
@ 3.62-3.5%
Under 3.5
77.9%
@ 1.25+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Pinnacle
3.76
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
@ 1.84-1.7%
No
51.6%
@ 1.85+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
No
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.86+6.3%
1-0
11.8%@ 6.14+4.6%
0-0
10.3%@ 8.23+5.0%
2-0
9.3%@ 8.60+4.2%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.90+3.4%
0-1
7.5%@ 8.98+2.6%
1-2
6.1%@ 11.62+2.3%
3-0
4.4%@ 16.81+1.8%
Torreense goals ↓
Vizela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.5%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.0%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.4%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torreense goals (down), columns = Vizela goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Torreense is 0.24 points better than Vizela in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Torreense is 0.21 goals better than Vizela in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Torreense is 0.21 goals better than Vizela in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Torreense is 7.7 percentage points worse than Vizela in terms of average possession (46% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torreense
For 5.1 · Against 7.0 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vizela
For 5.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.6 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torreense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
7.4
13.4
4.2
4.3
4.2
23.8
21.5
25.5
vs Stronger (1)
22.0
-
22.0
7.0
-
7.0
33.0
-
33.0
vs Similar (31)
8.9
7.4
11.3
4.4
4.7
4.1
24.2
24.8
23.3
vs Weaker (18)
12.8
-
12.8
3.8
3.6
4.1
21.2
5.0
25.2
% over line
38%
0%
62%
62%
65%
59%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
62%
100%
38%
38%
35%
41%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
11.0
5.2
5.4
5.1
20.8
25.7
15.8
vs Stronger (8)
13.0
9.0
17.0
5.1
3.5
6.8
13.2
11.5
15.0
vs Similar (42)
9.4
9.4
9.5
5.3
5.7
4.8
22.6
29.2
16.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
22%
80%
70%
76%
64%
55%
70%
40%
% under line
57%
78%
20%
30%
24%
36%
45%
30%
60%
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.7
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Torreense or Draw✗ Miss
75.8%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
+1.2%
47%
29%
24%
covers Torreense + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Torreense or Vizela✓ Hit
70.7%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.4%
47%
29%
24%
covers Torreense + Vizela
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Draw or Vizela✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied 53.3% · @ 1.74
Edge
+0.2%
47%
29%
24%
covers Draw + Vizela
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
SBO
1.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Torreense over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.1%
@ 1.22+0.2%
Under
23.9%
@ 3.84-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.19
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.96
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Torreense over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.9%
@ 2.13-1.8%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.65+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Torreense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 4.71-2.3%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.16+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Torreense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 10.38-3.4%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.04+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Vizela over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.0%
@ 1.46-1.4%
Under
38.0%
@ 2.53+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Vizela over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.2%
@ 3.34-2.7%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.29+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.49
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Vizela over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.4%
@ 8.98-3.0%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.80
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Vizela over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 20.50-3.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Torreense, so a minus line means Torreense give that many goals of a start and Vizela receive them. At -1, Torreense must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Torreense win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Torreense)Actual: Vizela
Torreense -2
9.0%
@ 8.30-1.8%
Draw -2
14.4%
@ 5.86-0.9%
Vizela +2
76.6%
@ 1.22+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.20
Superbet
7.50
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.45
Away
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Torreense)Actual: Vizela
Torreense -1
23.4%
@ 3.65-0.6%
Draw -1
23.1%
@ 3.52-1.9%
Vizela +1
53.5%
@ 1.72+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Superbet
3.60
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Away
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.67
Handicap +1 (Torreense)Actual: Vizela
Torreense +1
75.8%
@ 1.25+3.9%
Draw +1
15.2%
@ 5.29-1.9%
Vizela -1
9.0%
@ 8.18-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Superbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Away
Marathonbet
9.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Handicap +2 (Torreense)Actual: Vizela
Torreense +2
91.0%
@ 1.06+4.3%
Draw +2
6.6%
@ 10.45-2.2%
Vizela -2
2.4%
@ 20.50-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.90
Away
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
20.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torreense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.43
0.55
0.36
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.50
1.00
1.33
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.44
0.31
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.28
0.40
0.43
0.21
0.09
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.1%
@ 1.42+2.0%
Under 0.5
32.9%
@ 2.66-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Superbet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 2.96-1.0%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.35+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
Betano
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.6%
@ 7.89-1.2%
Under 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.05+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
Marathonbet
8.00
William Hil
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torreense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.3%
@ 1.92-2.1%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.80+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Torreense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.80-4.3%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.11+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Torreense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 15.50-3.0%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Vizela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.9%
@ 2.52+0.2%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.47-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.57
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Vizela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.1%
@ 9.20-2.1%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.00
Betano
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Vizela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 38.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torreense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.29
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.43
1.00
0.27
1.10
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vizela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vizela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.75
0.94
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.96
0.79
1.07
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.27+4.9%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 3.46-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.52
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.2%
@ 2.25-0.1%
Under 1.5
58.8%
@ 1.58+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 5.01-2.0%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.14+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torreense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.4%
@ 1.66-5.5%
Under
49.6%
@ 2.10+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Torreense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.9%
@ 4.26-1.8%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Torreense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 11.00-4.0%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Vizela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.9%
@ 2.10+1.9%
Under
54.1%
@ 1.65-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Vizela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 6.94-1.4%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.07+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Vizela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 17.50-3.3%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
91.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.05
-
-
-
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.11
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.27
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.6%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
75.8%
1.24
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
75.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
74.8%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.7%
1.28
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.4%
1.33
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Torreense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kévin Zohi38%
Dany Jean20%
Stopira11%
Musa Drammeh10%
Javi Vázquez9%
Lucas Paes0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Arnau Casas0%
Alejandro Alfaro0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme Liberato33%
Alejandro Alfaro29%
Arnau Casas25%
Andre Simões25%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero20%
Musa Drammeh20%
Ismaïl Seydi20%
Leo Azevedo20%
Javi Vázquez18%
Pité17%
Stopira11%
Dany Jean10%
David Bruno9%
Lucas Paes0%
Kévin Zohi0%
Costinha0%
Luis Quintero0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Manuel Pozo Guerrero20%
Alejandro Alfaro14%
Dany Jean10%
Musa Drammeh10%
Ismaïl Seydi10%
Leo Azevedo10%
Javi Vázquez9%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Kévin Zohi0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Arnau Casas0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kévin Zohi25%
Musa Drammeh20%
Alejandro Alfaro14%
Dany Jean10%
Javi Vázquez0%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Costinha0%
Pité0%
David Bruno0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Arnau Casas0%
Luis Quintero0%
Andre Simões0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Mohamed Ali Diadié0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Arielson0%
Danilo0%
Vizela · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Heinz Mörschel57%
Jose Sampaio40%
Luís Rocha20%
Matías Lacava20%
Yassin Fortune17%
Angel Bastunov14%
Thio14%
Leverton Pierre0%
Damien Loppy0%
Andrea Hristov0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Yann Kitala0%
Moha Moukhliss0%
Bright Osuoha Godwin0%
Jójó0%
Antonio Gomis0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Ítalo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Busnić57%
Thio43%
Moha Moukhliss43%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner40%
Antonio Gomis38%
Heinz Mörschel29%
Bright Osuoha Godwin25%
Ítalo25%
Matías Lacava20%
Rodrigo Ramos20%
Yassin Fortune17%
Angel Bastunov14%
Leverton Pierre0%
Damien Loppy0%
Andrea Hristov0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Luís Rocha0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Yann Kitala0%
Jójó0%
Jose Sampaio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matías Lacava40%
Moha Moukhliss29%
Jójó20%
Rodrigo Ramos20%
Yassin Fortune17%
Heinz Mörschel14%
Angel Bastunov0%
Leverton Pierre0%
Damien Loppy0%
Andrea Hristov0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Luís Rocha0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Thio0%
Yann Kitala0%
Bright Osuoha Godwin0%
Antonio Gomis0%
Ítalo0%
Jose Sampaio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Heinz Mörschel71%
Luís Rocha20%
Thio14%
Angel Bastunov0%
Leverton Pierre0%
Damien Loppy0%
Andrea Hristov0%
Miguel Tavares0%
Aleksandar Busnić0%
Yassin Fortune0%
Jean-Pierre Rhyner0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Matías Lacava0%
Yann Kitala0%
Moha Moukhliss0%
Bright Osuoha Godwin0%
Jójó0%
Antonio Gomis0%
Rodrigo Ramos0%
Ítalo0%
Jose Sampaio0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Torreense's squad is €7m more valuable than Vizela's (€19m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Torreense's attack is €2m more valuable than Vizela's (€7m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Torreense and Vizela have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Torreense's defence is €5m more valuable than Vizela's (€10m vs €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Feirense
Chaves