Tottenham vs Arsenal Result & Analysis

Tottenham’s recent home form has been uneven, ending with a 0-2 loss to Newcastle, while Arsenal have gone unbeaten in their last five away matches, winning 3-0 over Coventry. The model therefore favours an Arsenal win, rating it 62% and assigning the home win 16% and draw 22%. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely total of two goals at 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10.4% probability. Tottenham average 2.0 goals scored and conceded at home against stronger opponents, whereas Arsenal average 2.17 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded away against weaker sides. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 82.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.5%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 70.0%.

The final score was 1-4, an away win that confirms the model’s favourite, Arsenal, which the model picked with a 62% probability. The prediction was correct. Tottenham’s form, coming off a defeat, was less convincing than Arsenal’s unbeaten run, and the model’s suggested picks reflected that contrast. Under 25.5 fouls at 82.6% missed, while Over 1.5 at 82.2% hit, showing a high-pace game. Under 5.5 cards at 77.8% hit and Over 2.5 cards at 76.8% hit matched the match’s card tally. Under 11.5 corners at 73.5% hit, and Under 23.5 fouls at 70% missed. The model’s overall assessment of the match’s flow and outcome proved accurate.