Tottenham’s recent 0-2 loss to Newcastle has left the Spurs looking fragile at home, while Everton’s 1-1 draw with Bournemouth shows a team still finding its rhythm away. The model’s most pronounced divergence from the market is the 40% probability of an Everton win, a figure that eclipses the 31% home-win and 29% draw odds. This edge stems from Everton’s stronger away form, scoring 1.36 goals per game and conceding only 1.09 against similar opposition, versus Tottenham’s 1.15 scored and 1.69 conceded at home. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring encounter, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 98.4% (3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1% (5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1% (8% edge), Home under 3.5 goals at 96.6% (6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5% (4% edge) and Under 5.5 at 95.3% (3% edge). The home win probability stands at 31%, the draw at 29%, and the away win at 40%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tottenham win
31.4%
Avg Implied 47.4% · @ 1.98
Edge
-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Dafabet
2.00
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.50
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.64
Dafabet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Everton win
39.6%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.67
Edge
+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.78
Dafabet
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
Bet365
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tottenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.70
1.44
1.81
1.07
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.00
1.50
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.68
1.15
1.69
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.30
1.47
1.53
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.38
1.40
1.40
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.33
1.50
1.60
1.36
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.9%
@ 1.28+1.0%
Under 1.5
26.1%
@ 3.46-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.92-2.3%
Under 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.89+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.99
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.7%
@ 3.23-3.3%
Under 3.5
74.3%
@ 1.32+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.27
Betano
3.25
Unibet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
53.3%
@ 1.74-0.2%
No
46.7%
@ 2.01+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
No
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Betano
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 6.25+6.7%
0-1
9.3%@ 9.91+4.7%
0-0
8.9%@ 10.06+4.5%
1-2
8.6%@ 11.35+4.7%
1-0
7.9%@ 7.10+1.6%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.13+2.0%
0-2
7.2%@ 17.42+4.6%
2-0
5.5%@ 9.07+0.6%
Tottenham goals ↓
Everton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
9.3%
7.2%
3.3%
1.1%
1
7.9%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.5%
7.5%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tottenham goals (down), columns = Everton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Tottenham is 0.21 points worse than Everton in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Tottenham is 0.03 goals better than Everton in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Tottenham is 0.18 goals worse than Everton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Tottenham is 6.4 percentage points better than Everton in terms of average possession (50% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Tottenham
For 7.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Everton
For 4.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 9.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tottenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.6
8.6
4.4
5.0
3.8
22.8
22.8
22.8
vs Stronger (4)
7.2
7.0
7.5
3.8
4.5
3.0
26.8
27.5
26.0
vs Similar (41)
10.1
11.3
8.9
4.6
5.3
3.9
22.9
22.9
22.8
vs Weaker (5)
12.6
16.3
7.0
3.4
3.0
4.0
19.2
19.0
19.5
% over line
51%
64%
38%
64%
72%
56%
61%
56%
67%
% under line
49%
36%
62%
36%
28%
44%
39%
44%
33%
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.9
9.8
3.5
3.7
3.2
21.8
21.9
21.6
vs Stronger (14)
10.7
10.3
11.0
2.7
3.4
2.0
21.1
18.8
23.0
vs Similar (34)
9.0
8.6
9.4
4.0
4.1
3.9
22.6
23.4
21.8
vs Weaker (2)
7.0
6.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.0
15.0
9.0
% over line
41%
29%
52%
46%
52%
40%
57%
54%
60%
% under line
59%
71%
48%
54%
48%
60%
43%
46%
40%
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.5%
@ 1.60+6.2%
Under 9.5
36.5%
@ 2.15-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.60
Under
Unibet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.2%
Under 3.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.5%
Under 21.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tottenham or Draw
60.4%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
-13.6%
31%
29%
40%
covers Tottenham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Tottenham or Everton
71.0%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.2%
31%
29%
40%
covers Tottenham + Everton
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Everton
68.6%
Avg Implied 52.7% · @ 1.78
Edge
+15.9%
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + Everton
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tottenham over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
@ 1.20-8.1%
Under
30.2%
@ 4.20+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.35
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Tottenham over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
@ 1.99-13.2%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.75+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Tottenham over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
@ 4.21-10.1%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.20+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Tottenham over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
@ 9.86-6.2%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.04+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
9.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Everton over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
@ 1.41+8.9%
Under
25.4%
@ 2.71-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.80
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Everton over/under 1.5
Over
39.8%
@ 3.03+9.0%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.35-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.15
Marathonbet
3.12
10Bet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Everton over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
@ 7.85+4.0%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.06-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.10
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Everton over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
@ 18.88-0.0%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.01+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tottenham, so a minus line means Tottenham give that many goals of a start and Everton receive them. At -1, Tottenham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tottenham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tottenham)
Tottenham -2
4.4%
@ 7.76-7.1%
Draw -2
9.2%
@ 5.50-7.0%
Everton +2
86.4%
@ 1.24+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.05
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Away
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Handicap -1 (Tottenham)
Tottenham -1
13.6%
@ 3.58-11.5%
Draw -1
17.8%
@ 3.65-6.8%
Everton +1
68.6%
@ 1.79+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.40
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.84
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Betfair
1.73
Handicap +1 (Tottenham)
Tottenham +1
60.4%
@ 1.27-11.1%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 5.18+3.1%
Everton -1
19.0%
@ 8.16+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Tottenham)
Tottenham +2
81.0%
@ 1.06-5.9%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 10.50+3.3%
Everton -2
7.0%
@ 21.00+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tottenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.62
0.75
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.88
0.54
0.69
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.62
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.0%
@ 1.38-0.8%
Under 0.5
33.0%
@ 2.90+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.93
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.76-1.4%
Under 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.41+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.86
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 7.21-2.6%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.07+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tottenham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.6%
@ 1.85-7.8%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.87+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Tottenham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.7%
@ 5.34-7.6%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.12+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Tottenham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 11.00-7.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Everton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.3%
@ 2.37+3.3%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.52-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.39
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
Everton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
@ 8.80+2.3%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.04-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Everton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
@ 13.50-5.2%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tottenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.81
1.06
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.80
0.62
1.00
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.75
1.20
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.76
0.80
1.00
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.6%
@ 1.23+0.8%
Under 0.5
23.4%
@ 3.86-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.5%
@ 2.10-1.3%
Under 1.5
56.5%
@ 1.70+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 4.53-4.3%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.18+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tottenham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.5%
@ 1.62-9.0%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.19+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.12
Tottenham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
@ 3.83-10.0%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.22+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Tottenham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
@ 8.50-8.2%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.05+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Everton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.3%
@ 1.98+5.4%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.75-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Everton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.6%
@ 5.97+1.1%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.10-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.20
Betano
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Everton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 11.50-4.5%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.1%
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+6.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
Under 5.5
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+3.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+7.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+2.6%
Under 4.5
88.2%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.07
+2.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+10.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-2.3%
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
1.24
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+14.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+10.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-4.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+4.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-1.1%
Home +2 handicap
81.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-5.9%
Over 2.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+0.8%
Over 8.5 corners
74.8%
1.36
Unibet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+7.5%
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
+8.9%
Under 3.5
74.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
+3.3%
Over 1.5
73.9%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
+1.0%
Home or Away
71.0%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-2.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Tottenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Solanke33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Mikey Moore0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rodrigo Bentancur33%
Archie Gray33%
Mateus Fernandes33%
Mikey Moore33%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathys Tel33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Everton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierno Barry67%
James Tarkowski33%
Brennan Johnson33%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall33%
James Garner0%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Garner33%
Carlos Alcaraz33%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Thierno Barry0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Mykolenko33%
Iliman Ndiaye33%
Brennan Johnson33%
Thierno Barry33%
Harrison Armstrong33%
James Garner0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thierno Barry67%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall33%
James Garner0%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Tottenham's squad is €461m more valuable than Everton's (€920m vs €459m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Tottenham's attack is €76m more valuable than Everton's (€250m vs €174m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Tottenham's midfield is €120m more valuable than Everton's (€282m vs €162m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Tottenham's defence is €265m more valuable than Everton's (€388m vs €123m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa