The model favours an away win, with a 54% chance for FC Levadia Tallinn, a 27% chance for a draw and a 19% chance for Trans Narva to lift the trophy. The expected total is 2.5 goals, so a 2-goal match is the most likely total, with a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance.
Trans Narva, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. FC Levadia, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded. The model’s suggested picks are Under 3.5 (75.7%) and Over 1.5 (72.4%). The model also highlights a 27% chance of a 2-goal total and a 12.9% chance of a 1-1 score. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the predicted away win.
Results analysis
The away win, 0-1, was a tidy extension of FC Levadia Tallinn’s four-game winning run, while Trans Narva slipped after two straight defeats. The model’s favourite was the away victory, with a 54% probability, and it proved correct. The expected total of 2.5 goals fell short of the 2-goal reality, but the most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not reached. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 75.7% chance, whereas its Over 1.5 choice missed, despite a 72.4% probability. Overall, the predictions were largely accurate, reflecting the stark contrast between the two sides’ recent form.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trans Narva win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.86
1.30
1.30
1.27
2.36
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
2.30
0.80
1.60
0.60
3.00
vs Similar (11)
1.82
1.45
1.80
1.00
1.83
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.29
0.79
2.54
0.92
2.00
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.43
1.00
2.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
2.88
0.53
3.22
0.44
2.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
54% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1 ✓
12.1%
0-2
10.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
6.0%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.1%
Trans Narva goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
12%
11%
5.8%
2.4%
1
6.0%
13%
9.5%
5.1%
2.1%
2
3.2%
5.1%
4.2%
2.3%
0.9%
3
0.9%
1.5%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Trans Narva is 1.14 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 2.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.86 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Trans Narva is 0.92 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 0.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
0.71
0.40
0.40
0.55
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.90
0.00
0.40
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.55
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
52% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.46
1.08
0.46
0.64
0.45
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.29
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.24
1.33
0.11
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
71% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
1.14
0.90
0.90
0.73
1.36
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.40
0.80
1.20
0.20
1.60
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.91
1.00
0.60
1.17
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
19% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.42
0.33
1.46
0.46
1.36
0.18
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.76
0.29
1.89
0.33
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
75% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
Tammeka
Tallinna Kalev
Legion
Vaprus
Elva