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Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 18/03/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
25%
29%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Trans Narva face a clear disadvantage as the model favours an away win for FC Levadia Tallinn. The probability of a Levadia victory sits at 47%, with a draw at 29% and a home win at 25%. The average goal tally for the match is 2.5, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 27% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. Trans Narva’s home form against stronger opposition shows a low 0.5 average goal output and a 1.67 average conceded, while Levadia’s away record against weaker sides boasts 2.1 goals scored and only one conceded. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.5% chance and Over 1.5 with 72.7%. The match is expected to be low-scoring and Levadia’s recent four-game winning streak underpins the model’s pick.

Results analysis

Trans Narva’s recent form has stalled, with two straight defeats before this match, while FC Levadia Tallinn continued a four-game winning streak. The model predicted an away win with a 47% probability, and the result matched the prediction, confirming the model’s call. The final score was 0-2 in favour of Levadia, a clean sheet for the visitors and a win that extended their run. The model’s selections also performed well: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 75.5% probability, and Over 1.5 goals hit with a 72.7% probability. All predictions settled as expected, underscoring the model’s accuracy for this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L02L20W01L00D02L11D22D12L05LH·FLO17/09A·PAI02/10A·TAL08/10A·VAP15/10H·KAL23/10A·TAM30/10A·FC 05/11H·KUR12/11A·PAI05/03A·FLO14/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.901.151.230.942.41
vs Stronger (15)0.602.330.501.670.672.78
vs Similar (15)1.471.471.710.861.252.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L10W11D10W12L32W11D12L00D30WH·KUR18/09A·KAL02/10A·LEG08/10H·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11H·VAP05/03H·TAM15/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.031.691.191.710.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.901.401.002.000.750.50
vs Weaker (20)2.100.852.100.702.101.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
10.9%
0-0
9.4%
1-2
9.2%
0-2 ✓
9.0%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
Trans Narva goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
01234
09.4%11%9.0%4.5%1.7%
17.1%14%9.2%4.6%1.7%
24.2%6.3%4.7%2.3%0.9%
31.4%2.1%1.6%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Paide
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Trans Narva is 1.08 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 2.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.97 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Flora Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Trans Narva is 1.11 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 0.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W01L00D02L00D10W11D02LH·FLO17/09A·PAI02/10A·TAL08/10A·VAP15/10H·KAL23/10A·TAM30/10A·FC 05/11H·KUR12/11A·PAI05/03A·FLO14/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.460.380.591.12
vs Stronger (15)0.270.800.000.330.441.11
vs Similar (15)0.800.800.860.430.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D11D10W00D01L00D11D00D20WH·KUR18/09A·KAL02/10A·LEG08/10H·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11H·VAP05/03H·TAM15/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.750.500.640.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.600.500.830.250.25
vs Weaker (20)0.850.500.900.300.800.70
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L00D00D00D00D11D12L01L03LH·FLO17/09A·PAI02/10A·TAL08/10A·VAP15/10H·KAL23/10A·TAM30/10A·FC 05/11H·KUR12/11A·PAI05/03A·FLO14/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.100.690.850.351.29
vs Stronger (15)0.331.530.501.330.221.67
vs Similar (15)0.670.670.860.430.500.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W00D00D12L31W11D01L00D10WH·KUR18/09A·KAL02/10A·LEG08/10H·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11H·VAP05/03H·TAM15/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.500.940.691.070.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.800.501.170.500.25
vs Weaker (20)1.250.351.200.401.300.30
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
TN wins
1
Draws
3
FLT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN1-1
07/08/22HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
30/04/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN6-0
20/04/22HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/23AFlora Tallinn Vs TN5-0
05/03/23APaide Vs TN2-1
12/11/22HTN Vs Kuressaare2-2
05/11/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN1-1
30/10/22ATammeka Vs TN2-0
23/10/22HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
15/10/22AVaprus Vs TN1-0
08/10/22ATallinna Kalev Vs TN0-2
02/10/22APaide Vs TN2-0
17/09/22HTN Vs Flora Tallinn0-4

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/23HFLT Vs Tammeka3-0
05/03/23HFLT Vs Vaprus0-0
12/11/22AFlora Tallinn Vs FLT2-1
05/11/22HFLT Vs Trans Narva1-1
29/10/22AVaprus Vs FLT2-3
23/10/22HFLT Vs Paide1-2
15/10/22HFLT Vs Tammeka1-0
08/10/22ALegion Vs FLT1-1
02/10/22AKalju Nomme Vs FLT0-1
18/09/22HFLT Vs Kuressaare2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.00
HomeDWLDD1.28
AwayLLDLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%33%20%
AVG goals2.872.563.15
Over 1.5 %74%67%80%
Over 2.5 %47%50%45%
Over 3.5 %29%28%30%
Scored1.161.331.00
Conceded1.711.222.15
BTTS45%44%45%
Clean Sheet16%22%10%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDW2.05
HomeWLDDW1.91
AwayWWDWL2.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%55%68%
AVG goals2.833.052.58
Over 1.5 %71%82%58%
Over 2.5 %49%55%42%
Over 3.5 %29%32%26%
Scored1.982.091.84
Conceded0.850.950.74
BTTS46%55%37%
Clean Sheet51%45%58%
Corners8.508.009.00
Cards5.006.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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