PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 02/11/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 0-4
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
18%
22%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Trans Narva will face a tough test at home, with the model predicting an away win for FC Levadia Tallinn. The odds lean heavily toward the visitors, with a 60% chance of victory, a 22% chance of a draw and a 18% chance of a home win. The expected total goals for the match is 3.3, pointing to a high-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9% probability.

Trans Narva’s home form against stronger opposition shows a modest 0.83 average goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. In contrast, Levadia’s away form against weaker teams is prolific, averaging 2.83 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded. The recent run of results supports the prediction: Trans Narva have struggled after two straight defeats, while Levadia enjoy a four-game winning streak.

The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.3% chance of hitting. This single pick stands alone in the suggested picks list.

Results analysis

The win extends FC Levadia Tallinn’s four-game winning run, while Trans Narva’s recent form shows two straight defeats. The model predicted an away win with a 60% probability, and the outcome matched that call. The final score was 0-4, confirming the away victory. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.3% probability, hit as well. Every other suggested pick was settled, and the model’s forecast was accurate. The most likely total of 3 goals (22% probability) did not materialise, but the overall predictions, including the favoured result and the Over 1.5 selection, proved correct.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
60.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W13L13L00D00D23L31W11D04L01LH·TAL23/08A·FC 29/08H·LAA14/09H·KAL17/09A·KUR20/09H·PAI27/09A·TAL04/10H·VAP18/10A·FLO21/10A·LAA25/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.401.931.331.201.47
vs Stronger (13)0.771.770.831.500.712.00
vs Similar (17)2.181.122.671.221.621.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W22D13L12L32W31W30W30W12L31WH·TRA29/08A·TAM13/09H·FLO17/09A·KAL21/09A·FLO24/09H·TAL28/09H·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.131.941.062.001.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.271.401.141.291.381.50
vs Weaker (15)2.670.872.560.892.830.83
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.6%
Under 2.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.6%
1-3
7.1%
0-1
7.0%
0-3
6.3%
2-2
5.6%
2-1
5.1%
Trans Narva goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
01234
04.5%7.0%8.6%6.3%3.4%
13.2%9.9%9.8%7.1%3.9%
22.3%5.1%5.6%4.1%2.2%
30.9%1.9%2.1%1.5%0.8%
40.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Trans Narva is 0.78 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 2.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Trans Narva is 1.00 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 2.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Trans Narva is 0.44 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L12L00D00D03L11D10W01L01LH·TAL23/08A·FC 29/08H·LAA14/09H·KAL17/09A·KUR20/09H·PAI27/09A·TAL04/10H·VAP18/10A·FLO21/10A·LAA25/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.630.800.730.670.53
vs Stronger (13)0.150.690.170.830.140.57
vs Similar (17)1.180.591.220.671.120.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D12L00D02L10W20W30W11D30WH·TRA29/08A·TAM13/09H·FLO17/09A·KAL21/09A·FLO24/09H·TAL28/09H·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.531.000.441.070.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.670.670.860.430.500.88
vs Weaker (15)1.400.401.110.441.830.33
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L01L00D00D20W20W01L03L00DH·TAL23/08A·FC 29/08H·LAA14/09H·KAL17/09A·KUR20/09H·PAI27/09A·TAL04/10H·VAP18/10A·FLO21/10A·LAA25/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.771.130.600.530.93
vs Stronger (13)0.621.080.670.670.571.43
vs Similar (17)1.000.531.440.560.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D01L12L30W21W10W00D01L01LH·TRA29/08A·TAM13/09H·FLO17/09A·KAL21/09A·FLO24/09H·TAL28/09H·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.600.940.620.930.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.600.730.290.860.880.62
vs Weaker (15)1.270.471.440.441.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
TN wins
1
Draws
7
FLT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-1
27/06/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN2-1
05/04/25HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
05/10/24HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-2
02/10/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN0-0
29/06/24HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-2
02/03/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN6-0
01/10/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-0

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25ALaagri Vs TN1-0
21/10/25AFlora Tallinn Vs TN4-0
18/10/25HTN Vs Vaprus1-1
04/10/25ATallinna Kalev Vs TN1-3
27/09/25HTN Vs Paide2-3
20/09/25AKuressaare Vs TN0-0
17/09/25HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
14/09/25HTN Vs Laagri1-3
29/08/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-1
23/08/25HTN Vs Tallinna Kalev2-0

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25AVaprus Vs FLT1-3
22/10/25HFLT Vs Paide1-2
18/10/25AKuressaare Vs FLT0-3
05/10/25HFLT Vs Tammeka3-0
28/09/25HFLT Vs Tallinna Kalev3-1
24/09/25AFlora Tallinn Vs FLT2-3
21/09/25AKalju Nomme Vs FLT2-1
17/09/25HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn1-3
13/09/25ATammeka Vs FLT2-2
29/08/25HFLT Vs Trans Narva3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL1.44
HomeWLDLD1.32
AwayLDWLL1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%36%44%
AVG goals2.862.842.88
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored1.481.441.52
Conceded1.381.401.36
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet26%20%32%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW2.08
HomeWLWWL2.12
AwayDLWWW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%65%67%
AVG goals3.163.043.29
Over 1.5 %80%81%79%
Over 2.5 %72%73%71%
Over 3.5 %40%46%33%
Scored2.202.152.25
Conceded0.960.881.04
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

← all matches