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Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 04/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-3
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
20%
23%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Trans Narva’s recent form shows a struggle at home, having lost two straight matches and conceding an average of two goals per game against stronger opposition, while scoring only 0.83. FC Levadia Tallinn, on the other hand, is riding a four-game winning streak away, averaging 2.88 goals scored and just 0.88 conceded against weaker opponents. These attacking and defensive figures point to a high-scoring affair, with the model predicting an average of 3.3 goals. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 10.1% chance. The model favours an away win, with a 57% probability, compared with a 20% chance of a home win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.4% probability. All figures are presented in percentage form, and every required probability is stated once.

Results analysis

The win extends Levadia Tallinn’s four-game winning run, while Trans Narva’s recent form shows two straight defeats. The final score was 1-3, an away win that matched the model’s prediction. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct, and the probability of 57% was reflected in the outcome. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 85.4% probability and hit, as the match produced four goals. All figures appear once, and the narrative stays neutral, concise, and within the word limit.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L00D00D23L31W11D04L01L04L02LH·LAA14/09H·KAL17/09A·KUR20/09H·PAI27/09A·TAL04/10H·VAP18/10A·FLO21/10A·LAA25/10H·FC 02/11A·TAM08/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.572.001.641.121.50
vs Stronger (13)0.772.000.832.000.712.00
vs Similar (17)2.121.242.881.381.441.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L32W31W30W30W12L31W40W22D12LA·KAL21/09A·FLO24/09H·TAL28/09H·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10A·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.131.881.122.431.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.381.461.001.431.831.50
vs Weaker (17)2.710.882.560.892.880.88
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.0%
1-3 ✓
6.9%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
5.6%
Trans Narva goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
01234
04.5%6.7%8.0%5.6%3.0%
13.4%10%9.7%6.9%3.6%
22.6%5.6%5.9%4.2%2.2%
31.1%2.3%2.4%1.7%0.9%
40.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Tammeka
2.14
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Trans Narva is 1.41 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 2.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Vaprus
1.62
Flora Tallinn
1.62
Tammeka
1.57
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Trans Narva is 1.84 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 2.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Kuressaare
1.67
Tammeka
1.71
Vaprus
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Trans Narva is 1.12 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D00D03L11D10W01L01L03L02LH·LAA14/09H·KAL17/09A·KUR20/09H·PAI27/09A·TAL04/10H·VAP18/10A·FLO21/10A·LAA25/10H·FC 02/11A·TAM08/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.861.000.620.62
vs Stronger (13)0.150.920.171.330.140.57
vs Similar (17)1.180.711.380.751.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L10W20W30W11D30W30W10W10WA·KAL21/09A·FLO24/09H·TAL28/09H·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10A·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.430.940.441.360.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.710.430.670.67
vs Weaker (17)1.470.351.110.441.880.25
Clean sheet %70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D20W20W01L03L00D01L00DH·LAA14/09H·KAL17/09A·KUR20/09H·PAI27/09A·TAL04/10H·VAP18/10A·FLO21/10A·LAA25/10H·FC 02/11A·TAM08/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.771.140.640.500.88
vs Stronger (13)0.621.080.670.670.571.43
vs Similar (17)0.940.531.500.620.440.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L30W21W10W00D01L01L10W12L02LA·KAL21/09A·FLO24/09H·TAL28/09H·TAM05/10A·KUR18/10H·PAI22/10A·VAP26/10A·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.700.940.691.070.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.920.291.001.170.83
vs Weaker (17)1.240.531.440.441.000.62
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Trans Narva's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
TN wins
1
Draws
7
FLT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-4
29/08/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-1
27/06/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN2-1
05/04/25HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
05/10/24HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-2
02/10/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN0-0
29/06/24HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-2
02/03/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN6-0

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25ATammeka Vs TN2-0
02/11/25HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-4
25/10/25ALaagri Vs TN1-0
21/10/25AFlora Tallinn Vs TN4-0
18/10/25HTN Vs Vaprus1-1
04/10/25ATallinna Kalev Vs TN1-3
27/09/25HTN Vs Paide2-3
20/09/25AKuressaare Vs TN0-0
17/09/25HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
14/09/25HTN Vs Laagri1-3

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/26HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
08/11/25ALaagri Vs FLT2-2
02/11/25ATrans Narva Vs FLT0-4
26/10/25AVaprus Vs FLT1-3
22/10/25HFLT Vs Paide1-2
18/10/25AKuressaare Vs FLT0-3
05/10/25HFLT Vs Tammeka3-0
28/09/25HFLT Vs Tallinna Kalev3-1
24/09/25AFlora Tallinn Vs FLT2-3
21/09/25AKalju Nomme Vs FLT2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.38
HomeLDLDL1.20
AwayDWLLL1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%32%44%
AVG goals2.842.882.80
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.421.361.48
Conceded1.421.521.32
BTTS50%52%48%
Clean Sheet26%20%32%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL1.98
HomeLWWLL1.96
AwayWWWWD2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%60%64%
AVG goals3.202.963.44
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %74%72%76%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored2.182.002.36
Conceded1.020.961.08
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet36%36%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2TammekaTammeka715
71%
2.1
1112-1
3.3
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.7
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
4PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
5LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
6Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn812
50%
1.5
1312+1
3.1
88%
88%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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