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Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
15%
20%
64%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Trans Narva’s recent 0-4 loss to FC Levadia Tallinn signals a fragile defense, while Levadia’s 4-0 win over Trans Narva shows a potent away attack. The model predicts an away win with a 61 % chance, a draw at 22 %, and a home win at 17 %. The expected total goals is 3.3, and the most likely total is 3, with a 22 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.9 % chance. Trans Narva averages 0.75 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Levadia averages 2.89 scored and 1.0 conceded away against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.1 %), Away +2 handicap (93.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.2 %), Away over 0.5 goals (88.7 %), Under 5.5 (88.6 %), and Over 1.5 (84.7 %). These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a low-scoring, Levadia-dominated outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win
15.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn win
64.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-803L31W00D21W02L80W11D04L20W02LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NÕM31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.502.501.331.001.75
vs Stronger (14)0.932.071.111.780.602.60
vs Similar (15)2.271.073.121.001.291.14
vs Weaker (1)10.000.0010.000.00--
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W22D12L31W11D50W21W40W41W32WA·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08A·LAA16/08H·TRA21/08H·PAI26/08A·KAL30/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.471.132.400.932.531.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.851.541.711.292.001.83
vs Weaker (17)2.940.823.000.622.891.00
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.4%
Under 2.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
0-2
9.1%
1-3
7.5%
0-1
7.1%
0-3
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
2-1
4.5%
Trans Narva goals ↓
FC Levadia Tallinn goals →
01234
04.3%7.1%9.1%7.0%4.0%
12.8%9.3%9.7%7.5%4.3%
22.0%4.5%5.2%4.0%2.3%
30.7%1.6%1.9%1.4%0.8%
40.2%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Trans Narva is 1.41 points worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 2.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Trans Narva is 1.84 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 2.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Trans Narva is 1.12 goals worse than FC Levadia Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trans Narva or Draw
36.0%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Trans Narva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva or FC Levadia Tallinn
79.5%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Trans Narva + FC Levadia Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn
84.5%
Avg Implied -
15%
20%
64%
covers Draw + FC Levadia Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
90.0%
Under
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Trans Narva, so a minus line means Trans Narva give that many goals of a start and FC Levadia Tallinn receive them. At -1, Trans Narva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trans Narva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.2%
FC Levadia Tallinn +2
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva -1
5.8%
Draw -1
9.7%
FC Levadia Tallinn +1
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva +1
36.0%
Draw +1
21.7%
FC Levadia Tallinn -1
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva +2
57.7%
Draw +2
19.3%
FC Levadia Tallinn -2
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L20W00D20W01L40W10W01L20W01LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NÕM31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.731.220.720.330.75
vs Stronger (14)0.360.860.561.000.000.60
vs Similar (15)1.130.671.620.500.570.86
vs Weaker (1)4.000.004.000.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W10W20W01L30W11D10W11D02LA·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08A·LAA16/08H·TRA21/08H·PAI26/08A·KAL30/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.571.200.471.270.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.770.771.000.570.501.00
vs Weaker (17)1.590.411.380.381.780.44
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D00D01L01L40W01L03L00D01LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NÕM31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.771.280.610.671.00
vs Stronger (14)0.571.210.560.780.602.00
vs Similar (15)1.130.401.500.500.710.29
vs Weaker (1)6.000.006.000.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L02L11D10W20W10W30W30W30WA·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08A·LAA16/08H·TRA21/08H·PAI26/08A·KAL30/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.571.200.471.270.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.080.770.710.711.500.83
vs Weaker (17)1.350.411.620.251.110.56
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.6%-------
Under 6.594.4%-------
Away +2 handicap94.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals90.6%-------
Away over 0.5 goals90.0%-------
Under 5.587.5%-------
Over 1.585.8%-------
Draw or Away84.5%-------
Away +1 handicap84.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals80.0%-------
Home or Away79.5%-------
Under 4.575.0%-------
Home under 1.5 goals71.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Trans Narva's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Levadia Tallinn's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
TN wins
0
Draws
8
FLT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN4-0
04/07/26HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-3
02/11/25HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-4
29/08/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-1
27/06/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN2-1
14/05/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN1-0
05/04/25HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
05/10/24HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-2

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HTN Vs Tammeka0-2
26/08/26HTN Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
21/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN4-0
16/08/26HTN Vs Paide1-1
11/08/26HTN Vs Kompanii Marjamaa8-0
08/08/26HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-2
31/07/26ANõmme United Vs TN1-2
22/07/26HTN Vs Flora II0-0
18/07/26HTN Vs Vaprus3-1
10/07/26ALaagri Vs TN3-0

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AKalju Nomme Vs FLT2-3
26/08/26HFLT Vs Paide4-1
21/08/26HFLT Vs Trans Narva4-0
16/08/26ALaagri Vs FLT1-2
09/08/26HFLT Vs Nõmme United5-0
02/08/26AVaprus Vs FLT1-1
04/07/26ATrans Narva Vs FLT1-3
28/06/26HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
08/11/25ALaagri Vs FLT2-2
02/11/25ATrans Narva Vs FLT0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.46
HomeLWDWL1.63
AwayLLLWL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%39%
AVG goals3.323.702.87
Over 1.5 %80%85%74%
Over 2.5 %60%59%61%
Over 3.5 %42%52%30%
Scored1.922.371.39
Conceded1.401.331.48
BTTS46%52%39%
Clean Sheet28%33%22%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.00
HomeLLWWW2.12
AwayDWDWW1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%68%56%
AVG goals3.303.083.52
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %74%76%72%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored2.282.242.32
Conceded1.020.841.20
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet34%44%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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