The model favours an away win, with a 58% probability for Flora Tallinn, a 23% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Trans Narva victory. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the single most likely total is two goals, with a 23% probability. The most probable exact scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 10.8% chance. Trans Narva, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded, while Flora Tallinn, on the road to a weaker side, averages 2.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 96.0%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 93.0%, Away +2 handicap at 92.6%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 91.4%. Trans Narva’s recent form shows a defeat in their last match, while Flora Tallinn returns from a win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trans Narva win
19.1%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.81
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.98
Unibet
3.65
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.85
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.90
Unibet
3.80
Flora Tallinn win
57.7%
Avg Implied 52.3% · @ 1.75
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.78
1xBet
1.72
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.50
2.50
1.33
1.00
1.75
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
2.07
1.11
1.78
0.60
2.60
vs Similar (15)
2.27
1.07
3.12
1.00
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
10.00
0.00
10.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.17
2.88
1.18
2.23
1.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.73
1.73
3.60
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.53
0.84
2.58
0.83
2.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
@ 1.10+0.2%
Under 1.5
17.3%
@ 5.20-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.10
Under
Unibet
5.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.43-3.4%
Under 2.5
39.8%
@ 2.50+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.43
Under
Unibet
2.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
@ 2.15-4.8%
Under 3.5
62.1%
@ 1.60+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.15
Under
Unibet
1.60
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
@ 1.43-4.9%
No
41.2%
@ 2.50+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.43
No
Unibet
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 6.25+3.3%
1-2
9.9%@ 6.40+2.6%
0-2
9.0%@ 8.00+3.2%
0-1
8.0%@ 8.00+2.1%
1-3
6.7%@ 8.50+1.1%
0-3
6.1%@ 10.00+1.4%
2-2
5.4%@ 8.00-0.4%
0-0
5.4%@ 12.00+1.5%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Flora Tallinn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
8.0%
9.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1
3.9%
11%
9.9%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.7%
5.4%
5.4%
3.7%
1.8%
3
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Flora Tallinn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Trans Narva is 0.79 points worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Trans Narva is 0.90 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Trans Narva is 0.57 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trans Narva or Draw
42.3%
Avg Implied 49.2% · @ 1.86
Edge
-6.9%
19%
23%
58%
covers Trans Narva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.86
Trans Narva or Flora Tallinn
76.8%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.1%
19%
23%
58%
covers Trans Narva + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.21
Draw or Flora Tallinn
80.9%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.22
Edge
+5.8%
19%
23%
58%
covers Draw + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.22
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
@ 1.24-5.8%
Under
33.4%
@ 3.25+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.24
Under
Unibet
3.25
Trans Narva over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
@ 2.30-9.2%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.48+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.30
Under
Unibet
1.48
Trans Narva over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
59.9%
@ 1.54+1.4%
Under
40.1%
@ 2.17-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.54
Under
Unibet
2.17
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
32.8%
@ 2.75+0.1%
Under
67.2%
@ 1.34-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Under
Unibet
1.34
Flora Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Trans Narva, so a minus line means Trans Narva give that many goals of a start and Flora Tallinn receive them. At -1, Trans Narva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trans Narva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva -2
2.2%
Draw -2
5.3%
Flora Tallinn +2
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva -1
7.4%
@ 7.00-5.1%
Draw -1
11.7%
@ 5.25-5.0%
Flora Tallinn +1
80.9%
@ 1.24+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Unibet
5.25
Away
Unibet
1.24
Handicap +1 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva +1
42.3%
@ 1.91-3.5%
Draw +1
22.3%
@ 3.65-1.7%
Flora Tallinn -1
35.4%
@ 2.90+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.91
Draw
Unibet
3.65
Away
Unibet
2.90
Handicap +2 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva +2
64.6%
@ 1.33-1.3%
Draw +2
17.8%
@ 4.90-0.0%
Flora Tallinn -2
17.5%
@ 5.40+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.33
Draw
Unibet
4.90
Away
Unibet
5.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.22
0.72
0.33
0.75
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.56
1.00
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.67
1.62
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.24
0.53
1.08
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.64
1.60
0.40
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.47
1.08
0.58
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
@ 2.08-7.1%
Under 1.5
63.2%
@ 1.63+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Under
Unibet
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.8%
Under 2.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.4%
@ 2.02-13.0%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.68+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
Under
Unibet
1.68
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.6%
@ 1.58+2.6%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.18-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Under
Unibet
2.18
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.28
0.61
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.21
0.56
0.78
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.40
1.50
0.50
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.63
1.65
0.65
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.09
2.00
1.60
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.37
1.50
0.25
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.3%
Under 0.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.9%
@ 1.67-6.1%
Under 1.5
51.1%
@ 2.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.04
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
Under 2.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
1.05
Unibet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
1.10
Unibet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.9%
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Away +1 handicap
80.9%
1.24
Unibet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+10.1%
Under 4.5
79.5%
1.21
Unibet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.8%
1.21
Unibet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+1.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
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