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Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 11:30
Final 2-1
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
33%
33%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win✓ Hit
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L20W20W00D21W03L13L23L03L20WA·KAL05/08H·KUR13/08A·LAA18/08H·PAI27/08H·TAL01/09A·TAM15/09H·LAA23/09A·VAP27/09A·FC 01/10H·TAM07/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.570.871.270.931.87
vs Stronger (12)0.501.920.001.400.862.29
vs Similar (18)1.171.331.301.201.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D33D41W02L00D41W20W01L11DH·TRA05/08A·TAM13/08A·VAP19/08H·KUR27/08A·PAI03/09H·FLO17/09H·TAM23/09A·KUR26/09A·LAA30/09H·VAP07/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.101.620.881.071.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.561.560.751.000.402.00
vs Weaker (21)1.710.901.920.831.441.00
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.6%
Under 1.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.3%
Under 2.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.5%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
11.2%
1-2
7.2%
2-1 ✓
7.0%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.5%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
01234
013%12%7.0%2.5%0.7%
111%15%7.2%2.6%0.7%
26.5%7.0%3.8%1.3%0.4%
32.3%2.4%1.3%0.5%0.1%
40.6%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.31 points worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.50 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.39).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Trans Narva is 0.61 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.17).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D10W00D10W00D01L01L02L20WA·KAL05/08H·KUR13/08A·LAA18/08H·PAI27/08H·TAL01/09A·TAM15/09H·LAA23/09A·VAP27/09A·FC 01/10H·TAM07/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.270.730.530.80
vs Stronger (12)0.331.080.001.000.571.14
vs Similar (18)0.440.560.400.600.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L20W21W01L00D11D10W01L01LH·TRA05/08A·TAM13/08A·VAP19/08H·KUR27/08A·PAI03/09H·FLO17/09H·TAM23/09A·KUR26/09A·LAA30/09H·VAP07/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.430.880.190.500.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.330.780.500.000.201.40
vs Weaker (21)0.860.291.000.250.670.33
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W10W00D11D03L12L22D01L00DA·KAL05/08H·KUR13/08A·LAA18/08H·PAI27/08H·TAL01/09A·TAM15/09H·LAA23/09A·VAP27/09A·FC 01/10H·TAM07/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.600.530.401.07
vs Stronger (12)0.170.830.000.400.291.14
vs Similar (18)0.720.780.900.600.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W13L20W01L00D30W10W00D10WH·TRA05/08A·TAM13/08A·VAP19/08H·KUR27/08A·PAI03/09H·FLO17/09H·TAM23/09A·KUR26/09A·LAA30/09H·VAP07/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.750.690.570.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.220.780.251.000.200.60
vs Weaker (21)0.860.620.920.580.780.67
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva's squad is €2m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva's defence is €1m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
TN wins
2
Draws
4
KN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/23AKalju Nomme Vs TN4-0
20/05/23HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-2
01/04/23AKalju Nomme Vs TN2-0
23/10/22HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
23/07/22HTN Vs Kalju Nomme2-1
16/07/22AKalju Nomme Vs TN1-1
23/04/22AKalju Nomme Vs TN3-0

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HTN Vs Tammeka2-0
01/10/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN3-0
27/09/23AVaprus Vs TN3-2
23/09/23HTN Vs Laagri1-3
15/09/23ATammeka Vs TN3-0
01/09/23HTN Vs Tallinna Kalev2-1
27/08/23HTN Vs Paide0-0
18/08/23ALaagri Vs TN0-2
13/08/23HTN Vs Kuressaare2-0
05/08/23AKalju Nomme Vs TN4-0

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HKN Vs Vaprus1-1
30/09/23ALaagri Vs KN1-0
26/09/23AKuressaare Vs KN0-2
23/09/23HKN Vs Tammeka4-1
17/09/23HKN Vs Flora Tallinn0-0
03/09/23APaide Vs KN2-0
27/08/23HKN Vs Kuressaare4-1
19/08/23AVaprus Vs KN3-3
13/08/23ATammeka Vs KN1-1
05/08/23HKN Vs Trans Narva4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.10
HomeWDWLW1.36
AwayLWLLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.582.282.88
Over 1.5 %78%68%88%
Over 2.5 %46%40%52%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored0.961.040.88
Conceded1.621.242.00
BTTS34%28%40%
Clean Sheet22%32%12%
Corners8.007.009.00
Cards2.002.00-
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLD1.44
HomeWWDWD1.72
AwayDDLWL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%28%
AVG goals2.362.562.16
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %18%28%8%
Scored1.381.761.00
Conceded0.980.801.16
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet38%40%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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