Kalju Nomme is expected to take the win in this Estonia: Meistriliiga match against Trans Narva, with a 47% chance of success. The overall shape of the match is likely to be narrow, with a total of 2.9 goals expected on average. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 12.4% of the time.
Trans Narva, when playing at home, has averaged 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Kalju Nomme, when playing away against weaker opponents, has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
The model suggests Kalju Nomme to win, with a 47% chance, and Over 1.5 goals, occurring 79.8% of the time. There's a 3% edge in favour of this selection. The other model selections are a draw, occurring 26% of the time, and Trans Narva to win, occurring 27% of the time.
Results analysis
The win extends Trans Narva's recent run of losses, having come off a defeat. The actual result, a 0-2 score in favour of Kalju Nomme, was an away win, as predicted by the Pythia model. Its call was correct, as it had identified the away win as its selection, with a pre-match probability of 47%. The model's selection of Kalju Nomme to win away was the favourite. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hitting, having been given a 79.8% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trans Narva winâś— Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.20
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
4.40
1xBet
4.36
Dafabet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Drawâś— Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.70
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.91
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Unibet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Kalju Nomme winâś“ Hit
47.1%
Avg Implied 54.2% · @ 1.66
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.71
Superbet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Dafabet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.63
2.07
1.67
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.08
0.83
2.17
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (17)
2.12
1.29
2.89
1.33
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.90
2.07
0.93
1.33
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.08
1.67
1.00
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
2.00
0.78
2.33
0.89
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
@ 1.18+2.6%
Under 1.5
20.2%
@ 4.00-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Unibet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.6%
@ 1.63-0.4%
Under 2.5
44.4%
@ 2.08+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
888Sport
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
888Sport
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.2%
@ 2.54-2.8%
Under 3.5
66.8%
@ 1.43+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
888Sport
2.63
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.6%
@ 1.62+2.4%
No
41.4%
@ 2.08-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
No
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.80+6.2%
1-2
9.5%@ 7.04+3.5%
0-1
8.1%@ 7.32+2.3%
0-2 âś“
7.7%@ 7.85+2.4%
2-1
6.9%@ 12.30+3.5%
0-0
6.6%@ 12.22+3.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.08+2.3%
1-0
5.6%@ 12.70+2.2%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
8.1%
7.7%
4.4%
1.8%
1
5.6%
12%
9.5%
5.3%
2.2%
2
4.1%
6.9%
5.8%
3.3%
1.4%
3
1.7%
2.8%
2.4%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Tammeka
2.14
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Trans Narva is 0.88 points worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Vaprus
1.62
Flora Tallinn
1.62
Tammeka
1.57
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Trans Narva is 1.12 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.50
Kuressaare
1.67
Tammeka
1.71
Vaprus
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Trans Narva is 1.12 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.93
1.00
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.00
0.17
1.50
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (17)
1.24
0.71
1.44
0.67
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.27
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.33
0.89
0.22
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
1.13
0.67
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.08
0.67
0.67
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.59
1.44
0.67
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.33
0.67
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
1.17
0.67
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.44
1.44
0.67
0.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.8%
1.18
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+2.6%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Trans Narva's squad is €2m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Trans Narva and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Trans Narva's defence is €1m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€1m vs €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Tammeka
Paide
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Nõmme United