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Trans Narva vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Date: 16/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
40%
28%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win✗ Miss
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win✓ Hit
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D02L11D22D12L05L02L02L21WA·VAP15/10H·KAL23/10A·TAM30/10A·FC 05/11H·KUR12/11A·PAI05/03A·FLO14/03H·FC 18/03A·KAL01/04A·LAA08/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.731.151.311.062.06
vs Stronger (15)0.602.000.431.710.752.25
vs Similar (15)1.601.472.000.831.331.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L11D10W22D11D10W12L14L14LA·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10H·VAP06/11A·TRA12/11H·LAA07/03A·PAI15/03H·VAP19/03A·FC 02/04H·FLO08/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.601.501.381.211.86
vs Stronger (15)1.202.071.432.141.002.00
vs Similar (15)1.531.131.560.781.501.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.7%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
0-1 ✓
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
5.4%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
01234
08.2%7.5%5.4%2.2%0.7%
18.7%14%7.7%3.2%1.0%
27.0%8.7%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.3%4.1%2.6%1.1%0.3%
41.2%1.5%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.14 points worse than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.19).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.11 goals worse than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Trans Narva is 0.11 goals worse than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D02L00D10W11D02L01L02L11DA·VAP15/10H·KAL23/10A·TAM30/10A·FC 05/11H·KUR12/11A·PAI05/03A·FLO14/03H·FC 18/03A·KAL01/04A·LAA08/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.460.380.651.06
vs Stronger (15)0.270.730.000.430.501.00
vs Similar (15)0.870.801.000.330.781.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L10W00D01L00D00D00D13L13LA·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10H·VAP06/11A·TRA12/11H·LAA07/03A·PAI15/03H·VAP19/03A·FC 02/04H·FLO08/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.750.500.571.07
vs Stronger (15)0.801.001.000.860.621.12
vs Similar (15)0.530.530.560.220.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D11D12L01L03L01L00D10WA·VAP15/10H·KAL23/10A·TAM30/10A·FC 05/11H·KUR12/11A·PAI05/03A·FLO14/03H·FC 18/03A·KAL01/04A·LAA08/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.970.690.920.411.00
vs Stronger (15)0.331.270.431.290.251.25
vs Similar (15)0.730.671.000.500.560.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D10W01L10W21W11D10W12L01L01LA·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10H·VAP06/11A·TRA12/11H·LAA07/03A·PAI15/03H·VAP19/03A·FC 02/04H·FLO08/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.750.880.640.79
vs Stronger (15)0.401.070.431.290.380.88
vs Similar (15)1.000.601.000.561.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
TN wins
1
Draws
2
KUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs Kuressaare · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22HTN Vs Kuressaare2-2
27/08/22AKuressaare Vs TN3-1
26/04/22HTN Vs Kuressaare0-1
05/03/22AKuressaare Vs TN1-2

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23ALaagri Vs TN1-2
01/04/23AKalju Nomme Vs TN2-0
18/03/23HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-2
14/03/23AFlora Tallinn Vs TN5-0
05/03/23APaide Vs TN2-1
12/11/22HTN Vs Kuressaare2-2
05/11/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN1-1
30/10/22ATammeka Vs TN2-0
23/10/22HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
15/10/22AVaprus Vs TN1-0

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn1-4
02/04/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KUR4-1
19/03/23HKUR Vs Vaprus1-2
15/03/23APaide Vs KUR0-1
07/03/23HKUR Vs Laagri1-1
12/11/22ATrans Narva Vs KUR2-2
06/11/22HKUR Vs Vaprus1-0
29/10/22HKUR Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
22/10/22AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-1
14/10/22ALegion Vs KUR3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.00
HomeWLDDL1.21
AwayDLLLW0.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%32%23%
AVG goals2.832.533.09
Over 1.5 %76%68%82%
Over 2.5 %46%47%45%
Over 3.5 %27%26%27%
Scored1.121.261.00
Conceded1.711.262.09
BTTS44%42%45%
Clean Sheet15%21%9%
Corners---
Cards---
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.32
HomeDWDLL1.48
AwayLLDWL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%30%
AVG goals2.832.902.75
Over 1.5 %73%76%70%
Over 2.5 %56%57%55%
Over 3.5 %37%33%40%
Scored1.321.481.15
Conceded1.511.431.60
BTTS61%67%55%
Clean Sheet27%29%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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