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Trans Narva vs Kuressaare Prediction & Stats

Date: 14/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
44%
28%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The match between Trans Narva and Kuressaare is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away victory. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Trans Narva, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, while Kuressaare on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.44 conceded. The probabilities of each result are 40% for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 32% for an away win.

The model’s selections include: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.5%), Under 4.5 (86.2%), and Home +2 handicap (85.8%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given win percentages.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-803L31W00D21W02L80W11D04L20W02LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NÕM31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.502.501.331.001.75
vs Stronger (14)0.932.071.111.780.602.60
vs Similar (15)2.271.073.121.001.291.14
vs Weaker (1)10.000.0010.000.00--
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-803L23L00D51W01L32W80W32W01L22DH·FLO02/07A·NÕM11/07H·KAL19/07H·WEL23/07A·PAI02/08H·LAA07/08A·KRI11/08A·FLO16/08A·TAM22/08H·VAP29/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.471.291.501.621.44
vs Stronger (15)0.671.730.621.500.712.00
vs Similar (14)2.071.211.601.602.331.00
vs Weaker (1)5.001.005.001.00--
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
7.9%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.4%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
01234
07.9%6.7%4.7%1.9%0.6%
18.9%13%7.2%2.8%0.8%
27.7%9.1%5.4%2.2%0.6%
33.9%4.6%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.5%1.8%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Trans Narva is 0.01 points worse than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Trans Narva is 0.24 goals worse than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Trans Narva is 0.46 goals worse than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trans Narva or Draw
71.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
28%
29%
covers Trans Narva + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva or Kuressaare
72.2%
Avg Implied -
44%
28%
29%
covers Trans Narva + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kuressaare
56.3%
Avg Implied -
44%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
Under
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Trans Narva, so a minus line means Trans Narva give that many goals of a start and Kuressaare receive them. At -1, Trans Narva must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trans Narva win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva -2
8.9%
Draw -2
13.5%
Kuressaare +2
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva -1
22.4%
Draw -1
21.3%
Kuressaare +1
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva +1
71.5%
Draw +1
16.4%
Kuressaare -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Trans Narva)
Trans Narva +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.3%
Kuressaare -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L20W00D20W01L40W10W01L20W01LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NÕM31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.731.220.720.330.75
vs Stronger (14)0.360.860.561.000.000.60
vs Similar (15)1.130.671.620.500.570.86
vs Weaker (1)4.000.004.000.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W00D31W00D10W40W31W01L11DH·FLO02/07A·NÕM11/07H·KAL19/07H·WEL23/07A·PAI02/08H·LAA07/08A·KRI11/08A·FLO16/08A·TAM22/08H·VAP29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.500.930.880.56
vs Stronger (15)0.330.870.120.880.570.86
vs Similar (14)0.930.570.601.001.110.33
vs Weaker (1)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D00D01L01L40W01L03L00D01LA·LAA10/07H·VAP18/07H·FLO22/07A·NÕM31/07H·KAL08/08H·KOM11/08H·PAI16/08A·FC 21/08H·KAL26/08H·TAM30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.771.280.610.671.00
vs Stronger (14)0.571.210.560.780.602.00
vs Similar (15)1.130.401.500.500.710.29
vs Weaker (1)6.000.006.000.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L13L00D20W01L22D40W01L00D11DH·FLO02/07A·NÕM11/07H·KAL19/07H·WEL23/07A·PAI02/08H·LAA07/08A·KRI11/08A·FLO16/08A·TAM22/08H·VAP29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.790.570.750.88
vs Stronger (15)0.330.870.500.620.141.14
vs Similar (14)1.140.641.000.601.220.67
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.3%-------
Under 6.597.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.7%-------
Under 5.594.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.2%-------
Home +2 handicap87.8%-------
Under 4.586.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals80.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals78.1%-------
Away +2 handicap77.6%-------
Over 1.576.5%-------
Home or Away72.2%-------
Home or Draw71.5%-------
Home +1 handicap71.5%-------
Under 3.571.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Trans Narva and Kuressaare have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
TN wins
1
Draws
5
KUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs Kuressaare · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25AKuressaare Vs TN0-0
05/07/25HTN Vs Kuressaare3-2
27/04/25AKuressaare Vs TN2-1
08/03/25HTN Vs Kuressaare0-2
09/11/24HTN Vs Kuressaare0-2
24/08/24AKuressaare Vs TN0-1
19/06/24HTN Vs Kuressaare0-1
21/04/24AKuressaare Vs TN5-0

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HTN Vs Tammeka0-2
26/08/26HTN Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
21/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TN4-0
16/08/26HTN Vs Paide1-1
11/08/26HTN Vs Kompanii Marjamaa8-0
08/08/26HTN Vs Kalju Nomme0-2
31/07/26ANõmme United Vs TN1-2
22/07/26HTN Vs Flora II0-0
18/07/26HTN Vs Vaprus3-1
10/07/26ALaagri Vs TN3-0

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HKUR Vs Vaprus2-2
22/08/26ATammeka Vs KUR1-0
16/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-3
11/08/26AKristiine JK Vs KUR0-8
07/08/26HKUR Vs Laagri3-2
02/08/26APaide Vs KUR1-0
23/07/26HKUR Vs Welco X5-1
19/07/26HKUR Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
11/07/26ANõmme United Vs KUR3-2
02/07/26HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.46
HomeLWDWL1.63
AwayLLLWL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%39%
AVG goals3.323.702.87
Over 1.5 %80%85%74%
Over 2.5 %60%59%61%
Over 3.5 %42%52%30%
Scored1.922.371.39
Conceded1.401.331.48
BTTS46%52%39%
Clean Sheet28%33%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.02
HomeLDWWD1.17
AwayLLWWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.962.793.12
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.301.251.35
Conceded1.661.541.77
BTTS50%58%42%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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