Trans Narva vs Paide Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with Paide’s 44% chance of triumph against Trans Narva’s 28% home advantage and 29% draw probability. The expected total is 2.5 goals, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% probability. Trans Narva, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.33 goals scored and concedes 2.0, while Paide, on the road against a weaker side, scores 2.33 and concedes 1.0. The suggested picks include Under 3.5 with 75.1% and Over 1.5 with 73.2%. The model’s selection for the match result is an away win, but the overall shape points to a tightly contested game. The home win percentage is 28%, the draw 29%, and the away win 44%. The picks are: Under 3.5 (75.1%), Over 1.5 (73.2%).

The pre-match favourite, Paide, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised everyone. The model had picked an away win with a 44% probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, which had a 13.8% chance. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 75.1% probability, and its pick of Over 1.5 goals also hit, at 73.2%. The game was a tight contest, with Trans Narva’s home form described as “after 2 straight defeats” and Paide’s away form noted as “on a 2-game winning run.” The outcome was a clear upset, confirming the model’s prediction of an away win was incorrect.