Trans Narva vs Paide Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win for Paide, with a 51% chance compared to 23% for Trans Narva and 26% for a draw. The expected total is 2.8 goals, but the most likely total is 2, a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, at 12.4%. Trans Narva, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Paide, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.78 goals scored and 0.56 conceded. The only selection the model offers is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.3% chance. The final score of the last match was 1-1, a draw, after Trans Narva’s recent form of LLDLW and Paide’s WWDLL. The match is likely to see Paide edge out a narrow win, with both sides expected to find the net.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, failed to materialise, leaving the match to finish 1-1. The final score produced a draw, a result the model had not anticipated. The model’s selection of an away victory carried a 51% probability, yet the outcome was a draw, so the favourite was wrong. The only other model selection, Over 1.5, hit with a 78.3% chance, confirming that the game did produce more than one goal. Trans Narva’s recent form shows two straight defeats, while Paide entered on a two-game winning run, setting the stage for a tightly contested draw that defied the model’s expectation.