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Trans Narva vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 29/09/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-3
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
22%
25%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva winâś— Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide winâś“ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D00D21W13L22D10W01L11D40W32WH·KAL13/07A·VAP20/07H·NĂ•M26/07A·FLO03/08H·TAL17/08A·KUR24/08H·TAM31/08H·FLO17/09A·NĂ•M21/09A·PAI25/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.931.271.671.532.20
vs Stronger (13)1.542.541.571.861.503.33
vs Similar (17)1.291.471.001.501.561.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W16L11D10W31W42W72W23L43W23LA·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NĂ•M14/09A·TAL17/09H·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.431.861.291.881.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.771.692.401.201.382.00
vs Weaker (17)1.941.241.561.332.381.12
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.3%
1-3
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
06.1%8.3%8.8%5.5%2.5%
14.6%12%9.8%6.1%2.9%
23.2%5.9%5.5%3.4%1.6%
31.2%2.2%2.1%1.3%0.6%
40.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Trans Narva is 0.83 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.72 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Trans Narva is 0.67 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D11D00D10W00D01L00D20W21WH·KAL13/07A·VAP20/07H·NĂ•M26/07A·FLO03/08H·TAL17/08A·KUR24/08H·TAM31/08H·FLO17/09A·NĂ•M21/09A·PAI25/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.530.670.671.00
vs Stronger (13)0.691.080.710.860.671.33
vs Similar (17)0.530.650.380.500.670.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W13L11D10W10W30W50W13L23L12LA·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NĂ•M14/09A·TAL17/09H·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.870.930.711.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.150.771.400.201.001.12
vs Weaker (17)0.820.940.671.001.000.88
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W13L12L10W00D11D20W11DH·KAL13/07A·VAP20/07H·NĂ•M26/07A·FLO03/08H·TAL17/08A·KUR24/08H·TAM31/08H·FLO17/09A·NĂ•M21/09A·PAI25/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.100.731.000.871.20
vs Stronger (13)0.851.460.861.000.832.00
vs Similar (17)0.760.820.621.000.890.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L00D00D21W12L22D10W20W11DA·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NĂ•M14/09A·TAL17/09H·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.570.930.570.880.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.921.001.000.380.88
vs Weaker (17)1.120.290.890.331.380.25
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.0%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva's squad is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Paide have a similar attack value (both €1m).

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
TN wins
3
Draws
3
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs Paide · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/24APaide Vs TN2-3
04/07/24APaide Vs TN2-2
28/04/24HTN Vs Paide1-1
04/11/23HTN Vs Paide1-3
27/08/23HTN Vs Paide0-0
28/05/23APaide Vs TN1-2
05/03/23APaide Vs TN2-1
02/10/22APaide Vs TN2-0

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/24APaide Vs TN2-3
21/09/24ANõmme United Vs TN0-4
17/09/24HTN Vs Flora Tallinn1-1
31/08/24HTN Vs Tammeka0-1
24/08/24AKuressaare Vs TN0-1
17/08/24HTN Vs Tallinna Kalev2-2
03/08/24AFlora Tallinn Vs TN3-1
26/07/24HTN Vs Nõmme United2-1
20/07/24AVaprus Vs TN0-0
13/07/24HTN Vs Kalju Nomme2-2

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/24HPAI Vs Trans Narva2-3
21/09/24HPAI Vs Kuressaare4-3
17/09/24ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI3-2
14/09/24HPAI Vs Nõmme United7-2
01/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-4
24/08/24ATammeka Vs PAI1-3
18/08/24HPAI Vs Vaprus1-0
13/08/24HPAI Vs BK Hacken1-1
07/08/24ABK Hacken Vs PAI6-1
04/08/24AKuressaare Vs PAI0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWW1.14
HomeDWDLD1.24
AwayDLWWW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%32%32%
AVG goals3.162.843.48
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %66%60%72%
Over 3.5 %46%40%52%
Scored1.241.241.24
Conceded1.921.602.24
BTTS44%56%32%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners8.007.009.00
Cards2.002.00-
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.76
HomeDWWWL1.92
AwayWLWWL1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%58%50%
AVG goals3.223.333.12
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %38%46%31%
Scored1.942.211.69
Conceded1.281.121.42
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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