Trans Narva’s recent home form has been shaky, with a last-five record of LLDLW and a 0-2 loss to Tammeka, while Paide arrives on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Flora Tallinn 2-1. The model therefore rates the away side as the clear favourite, giving Paide a 63% chance of victory, Trans Narva only 15% and a draw 23%. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 0-2, with a 11.2% probability. Paide’s away form shows they average 2.44 goals scored and only 0.89 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Trans Narva at home against stronger teams average 1.29 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s only other selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.5% probability. The predicted outcome is an away win, and the match is expected to finish 0-2.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Trans Narva snatching a 1-0 victory that left the pre-match favourite, Paide, in the dust. The model had tipped an away win with a 63% probability, but the result proved wrong, as the home side emerged victorious. The model’s sole selection, Over 1.5 goals, missed, despite a 79.5% chance. The match finished 1-0, a home win that extended Trans Narva’s recent form narrative of a win after two straight defeats. Paide’s run of two consecutive victories ended, and the expected total of 2.9 goals proved too high, with the most likely scoreline of 0-2 never materialising.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trans Narva win✓ Hit
14.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✗ Miss
62.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.37
0.93
1.60
1.87
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
1.46
1.92
1.29
2.00
1.67
1.83
vs Similar (17)
1.35
0.94
0.62
1.25
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.23
2.25
1.06
2.29
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
2.46
1.38
2.75
0.75
2.00
2.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.12
1.12
1.75
1.38
2.44
0.89
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.2%
1-1
10.8%
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.6%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
4.3%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Paide goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
10%
11%
7.6%
3.8%
1
3.9%
11%
9.9%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.1%
4.3%
4.3%
2.9%
1.5%
3
0.6%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Trans Narva is 0.53 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Trans Narva is 0.28 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Trans Narva is 0.56 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.40
0.60
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.69
0.57
0.86
0.83
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.29
0.25
0.38
0.89
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.12
0.69
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.62
1.50
0.25
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.82
0.75
1.12
0.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.53
1.00
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.23
0.71
1.14
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
0.38
0.88
1.11
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.12
0.38
1.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.15
0.77
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.29
1.00
0.25
1.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva's squad is €1m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Paide have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
Laagri
Kuressaare
Tammeka
Tallinna Kalev
Viimsi