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Trans Narva vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
64%
21%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win✓ Hit
64.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D53W11D21W25L01L11D21W13LA·TAM29/06H·PAI02/07A·VAP09/07A·KAL16/07H·KAL23/07A·TAL30/07H·FC 07/08A·FLO13/08H·LEG20/08A·KUR27/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.241.801.251.251.232.31
vs Stronger (12)0.672.080.671.500.672.67
vs Similar (13)1.771.541.831.001.712.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %8% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-614L16L11D35L03L01L03L24L13L23LA·FC 16/06A·FLO29/06H·TAM02/07H·TRA09/07H·KAL29/07H·KUR06/08A·FC 12/08A·PAI17/08A·FLO20/08H·TAL26/08
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.042.921.152.460.923.42
vs Stronger (12)0.673.750.203.401.004.00
vs Similar (13)1.382.151.751.880.802.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
2-0
9.4%
1-0 ✓
7.4%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
7.2%
2-2
5.1%
0-0
4.5%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
04.5%2.9%2.0%0.7%0.2%
17.4%9.5%4.5%1.5%0.4%
29.4%9.8%5.1%1.8%0.5%
37.2%7.4%3.8%1.3%0.3%
44.1%4.2%2.2%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Trans Narva is 0.75 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 0.31).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Trans Narva is 0.31 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.89).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Trans Narva is 1.06 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 2.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D12L10W00D22D00D11D21W12LA·TAM29/06H·PAI02/07A·VAP09/07A·KAL16/07H·KAL23/07A·TAL30/07H·FC 07/08A·FLO13/08H·LEG20/08A·KUR27/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.760.500.420.621.08
vs Stronger (12)0.250.830.000.330.501.33
vs Similar (13)0.850.691.000.500.710.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L12L01L21W03L00D02L12L11D10WA·FC 16/06A·FLO29/06H·TAM02/07H·TRA09/07H·KAL29/07H·KUR06/08A·FC 12/08A·PAI17/08A·FLO20/08H·TAL26/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.441.320.461.080.421.58
vs Stronger (12)0.501.830.201.800.711.86
vs Similar (13)0.380.850.620.620.001.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D41W01L21W03L01L00D00D01LA·TAM29/06H·PAI02/07A·VAP09/07A·KAL16/07H·KAL23/07A·TAL30/07H·FC 07/08A·FLO13/08H·LEG20/08A·KUR27/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.681.040.750.830.621.23
vs Stronger (12)0.421.250.671.170.171.33
vs Similar (13)0.920.850.830.501.001.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %24% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L04L10W14L00D01L01L12L02L13LA·FC 16/06A·FLO29/06H·TAM02/07H·TRA09/07H·KAL29/07H·KUR06/08A·FC 12/08A·PAI17/08A·FLO20/08H·TAL26/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.600.691.380.501.83
vs Stronger (12)0.171.920.001.600.292.14
vs Similar (13)1.001.311.121.250.801.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %24% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
TN wins
0
Draws
0
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs Vaprus · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
09/07/22AVaprus Vs TN3-5
09/04/22HTN Vs Vaprus3-1

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22AKuressaare Vs TN3-1
20/08/22HTN Vs Legion2-1
13/08/22AFlora Tallinn Vs TN1-1
07/08/22HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
30/07/22ATallinna Kalev Vs TN5-2
23/07/22HTN Vs Kalju Nomme2-1
16/07/22AKalju Nomme Vs TN1-1
09/07/22AVaprus Vs TN3-5
02/07/22HTN Vs Paide1-1
29/06/22ATammeka Vs TN1-0

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/22HVAP Vs Tallinna Kalev2-3
20/08/22AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP3-1
17/08/22APaide Vs VAP4-2
12/08/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP3-0
06/08/22HVAP Vs Kuressaare0-1
29/07/22HVAP Vs Kalju Nomme0-3
09/07/22HVAP Vs Trans Narva3-5
02/07/22HVAP Vs Tammeka1-1
29/06/22AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP6-1
16/06/22AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs VAP4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.00
HomeDDWLW1.17
AwayWDLDL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%23%
AVG goals3.042.503.54
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %28%17%38%
Scored1.241.251.23
Conceded1.801.252.31
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.32
HomeDLLLL0.62
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%15%0%
AVG goals3.963.624.33
Over 1.5 %88%85%92%
Over 2.5 %72%62%83%
Over 3.5 %56%46%67%
Scored1.041.150.92
Conceded2.922.463.42
BTTS64%62%67%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3697
86%
2.7
9421+73
3.2
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.60.6
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
67%
2.2
7425+49
2.8
69%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.10.7
-
3PaidePaide3665
53%
1.8
8437+47
3.4
78%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.31.0
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3665
53%
1.8
5930+29
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.60.8
-
5KuressaareKuressaare3650
36%
1.4
4951-2
2.8
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.41.4
-
6TammekaTammeka3639
28%
1.1
3857-19
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
28%
1.1
4358-15
2.8
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.6
-
8Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3635
28%
1.0
4292-50
3.7
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
9LegionLegion3829
18%
0.8
3783-46
3.2
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
10VaprusVaprus3611
8%
0.3
3296-64
3.6
75%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.92.7
-
11ElvaElva23
50%
1.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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