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Trans Narva vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Date: 11/05/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 4-2
Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Vs
30%
33%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Trans Narva win✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W30W01L10W21W12L21W12L40WH·KUR08/03H·PAI15/03A·LAA29/03H·FC 05/04H·TAL08/04A·TAM13/04H·KAL19/04A·VAP23/04A·KUR27/04H·TAM03/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.271.001.331.801.20
vs Stronger (13)1.151.690.711.571.671.83
vs Similar (17)1.590.941.251.121.890.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W12L50W11D01L22D01L12L10W03LA·FLO08/03H·FC 15/03A·TAM29/03H·LAA05/04A·PAI09/04H·TAL13/04A·KUR18/04H·TRA23/04A·LAA26/04H·FLO02/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.471.001.731.071.20
vs Stronger (14)0.502.290.292.570.712.00
vs Similar (16)1.500.751.621.001.380.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.2%
Under 1.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.8%
Under 2.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.0%
Under 3.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.2%
No
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.7%
0-1
12.6%
1-0
10.6%
0-2
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.7%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
014%13%7.8%3.0%0.8%
111%15%7.6%2.8%0.8%
25.7%6.5%3.7%1.4%0.4%
31.8%2.1%1.2%0.4%0.1%
40.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Trans Narva is 0.06 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Trans Narva is 0.03 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.50).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Trans Narva is 0.03 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W20W00D00D11D01L20W01L10WH·KUR08/03H·PAI15/03A·LAA29/03H·FC 05/04H·TAL08/04A·TAM13/04H·KAL19/04A·VAP23/04A·KUR27/04H·TAM03/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.400.470.930.47
vs Stronger (13)0.620.540.430.570.830.50
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.380.381.000.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W30W10W01L11D01L02L00D02LA·FLO08/03H·FC 15/03A·TAM29/03H·LAA05/04A·PAI09/04H·TAL13/04A·KUR18/04H·TRA23/04A·LAA26/04H·FLO02/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.600.930.470.60
vs Stronger (14)0.291.210.141.290.431.14
vs Similar (16)0.750.381.000.620.500.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W01L10W10W11D01L11D30WH·KUR08/03H·PAI15/03A·LAA29/03H·FC 05/04H·TAL08/04A·TAM13/04H·KAL19/04A·VAP23/04A·KUR27/04H·TAM03/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.600.870.870.73
vs Stronger (13)0.541.150.291.000.831.33
vs Similar (17)0.880.530.880.750.890.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L20W01L00D11D00D10W10W01LA·FLO08/03H·FC 15/03A·TAM29/03H·LAA05/04A·PAI09/04H·TAL13/04A·KUR18/04H·TRA23/04A·LAA26/04H·FLO02/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.400.800.600.60
vs Stronger (14)0.211.070.141.290.290.86
vs Similar (16)0.750.380.620.380.880.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Trans Narva and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
TN wins
3
Draws
3
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Trans Narva vs Vaprus · H/A from TN
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/25AVaprus Vs TN1-2
27/10/24HTN Vs Vaprus1-1
20/07/24AVaprus Vs TN0-0
15/06/24AVaprus Vs TN1-4
04/05/24HTN Vs Vaprus0-0
27/09/23AVaprus Vs TN3-2
08/07/23HTN Vs Vaprus0-4
07/05/23HTN Vs Vaprus0-2

Trans NarvaTrans Narva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25HTN Vs Tammeka4-0
27/04/25AKuressaare Vs TN2-1
23/04/25AVaprus Vs TN1-2
19/04/25HTN Vs Kalju Nomme1-2
13/04/25ATammeka Vs TN1-2
08/04/25HTN Vs Tallinna Kalev1-0
05/04/25HTN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
29/03/25ALaagri Vs TN0-3
15/03/25HTN Vs Paide1-0
08/03/25HTN Vs Kuressaare0-2

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/25HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn0-3
26/04/25ALaagri Vs VAP0-1
23/04/25HVAP Vs Trans Narva1-2
18/04/25AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0
13/04/25HVAP Vs Tallinna Kalev2-2
09/04/25APaide Vs VAP1-0
05/04/25HVAP Vs Laagri1-1
29/03/25ATammeka Vs VAP0-5
15/03/25HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-2
08/03/25AFlora Tallinn Vs VAP0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.22
HomeWLWLW0.96
AwayDWWWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%23%42%
AVG goals3.042.653.46
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %62%50%75%
Over 3.5 %44%35%54%
Scored1.341.081.62
Conceded1.701.581.83
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet24%19%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWL1.00
HomeLDDLL0.92
AwayWWLLW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.442.842.04
Over 1.5 %66%84%48%
Over 2.5 %46%60%32%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored0.981.040.92
Conceded1.461.801.12
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet26%16%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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