The match between Trans Narva and Vaprus is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win at 39 %. Home and away win chances sit at 35 % and 39 % respectively, while a draw is 26 %. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total is two with a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2 % chance. Trans Narva, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages three goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Vaprus, on the road, averages 1.83 scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.6 % probability. The team’s recent form shows Trans Narva coming off a 0-4 loss to FC Levadia Tallinn, while Vaprus has endured two straight defeats, losing 1-2 to Flora Tallinn. The match remains undecided, but the model’s pick points to Vaprus as the slight favourite.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Trans Narva, fresh from a 0-4 loss, seized the game and ran away with a 3-1 victory, extending their recent win streak. The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an Away win at 39 %, proved wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.6 % probability, hit, as the match produced four goals. No other suggested pick was listed. The final score of 3-1 gave the home side the win, contradicting the model’s expectation of an away triumph. The outcome shows the model’s favourite was incorrect, while its over-goals call was accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Trans Narva win✓ Hit
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.67
2.00
1.71
1.00
1.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.08
0.83
2.17
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.43
3.00
1.57
0.43
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.43
1.73
1.33
1.60
1.53
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.08
0.83
2.17
1.14
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.21
1.14
2.50
0.88
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.2%
Under 2.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 3.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
0-0
6.0%
0-2
5.9%
Trans Narva goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.5%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.0%
12%
8.7%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.1%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.5%
4.0%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trans Narva goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.17
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Paide
1.83
Tammeka
1.80
Laagri
1.29
Vaprus
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Kuressaare
0.88
Nõmme United
0.86
Trans Narva and Vaprus are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.67
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.86
Flora Tallinn
1.83
Vaprus
1.57
Tammeka
1.20
Nõmme United
1.14
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
1.00
Trans Narva is 0.57 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.71
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Flora Tallinn
1.17
Laagri
1.43
Paide
1.50
Kuressaare
1.62
Vaprus
1.86
Trans Narva
2.14
Tammeka
2.20
Nõmme United
2.57
Trans Narva is 0.29 goals worse than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.86
1.07
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.00
0.17
1.50
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.86
1.43
0.86
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.00
0.93
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.15
0.50
1.83
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.50
1.38
0.38
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
1.14
0.64
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.08
0.67
0.67
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.57
1.57
0.71
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.73
0.40
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.92
0.33
0.33
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.64
1.12
0.50
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Laagri
Tammeka
Kuressaare
Nõmme United