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Treaty United vs Finn Harps Result & Analysis

Date: 28/02/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 3-1
Treaty United
Treaty United
Vs
44%
28%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Treaty United win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L11D12L30W31W11D22D21W23L50WA·BRA30/08H·KER06/09H·ATH20/09A·COB23/09H·LON27/09A·COR04/10H·UCD11/10A·FIN18/10H·COB14/02A·ATH21/02
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.271.131.271.471.27
vs Stronger (13)1.461.311.431.571.501.00
vs Similar (14)1.291.291.001.171.501.38
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.500.501.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W41W10W22D11D22D13L12L02L01LH·COB30/08A·ATH06/09H·LON13/09A·COR20/09A·KER27/09A·BRA11/10H·WEX14/10H·TRE18/10A·KER14/02H·DUN21/02
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.371.071.070.811.62
vs Stronger (14)1.001.501.001.251.001.83
vs Similar (16)0.881.251.170.830.701.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
Treaty United goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
01234
07.7%6.6%4.6%1.8%0.5%
18.9%13%7.1%2.8%0.8%
27.8%9.2%5.5%2.2%0.6%
34.0%4.7%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.5%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Treaty United goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dundalk
2.19
Cobh Ramblers
1.89
Bray Wanderers
1.82
UCD
1.51
Treaty United
1.31
Wexford
1.26
Longford Town
1.25
Finn Harps
1.00
Kerry
1.00
Athlone Town
0.56
Treaty United is 0.31 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dundalk
2.06
Cobh Ramblers
1.87
Bray Wanderers
1.74
Treaty United
1.33
UCD
1.32
Wexford
1.20
Longford Town
1.19
Finn Harps
1.17
Kerry
1.11
Athlone Town
0.81
Treaty United is 0.17 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.17).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dundalk
0.86
Cobh Ramblers
1.03
UCD
1.19
Treaty United
1.28
Wexford
1.37
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.58
Kerry
1.61
Longford Town
1.64
Athlone Town
1.92
Treaty United is 0.30 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L00D10W10W11D10W10W01L10W30WA·BRA30/08H·KER06/09H·ATH20/09A·COB23/09H·LON27/09A·COR04/10H·UCD11/10A·FIN18/10H·COB14/02A·ATH21/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.400.200.800.87
vs Stronger (13)0.850.380.430.431.330.33
vs Similar (14)0.500.710.500.000.501.25
vs Weaker (3)0.000.330.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D20W00D10W12L10W01L01LH·COB30/08A·ATH06/09H·LON13/09A·COR20/09A·KER27/09A·BRA11/10H·WEX14/10H·TRE18/10A·KER14/02H·DUN21/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.570.500.500.56
vs Stronger (14)0.710.640.620.750.830.50
vs Similar (16)0.380.440.500.170.300.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D02L20W20W01L12L20W13L20WA·BRA30/08H·KER06/09H·ATH20/09A·COB23/09H·LON27/09A·COR04/10H·UCD11/10A·FIN18/10H·COB14/02A·ATH21/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.731.070.670.40
vs Stronger (13)0.620.921.001.140.170.67
vs Similar (14)0.790.570.501.171.000.12
vs Weaker (3)0.670.670.500.501.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W10W02L11D12L01L02L01L00DH·COB30/08A·ATH06/09H·LON13/09A·COR20/09A·KER27/09A·BRA11/10H·WEX14/10H·TRE18/10A·KER14/02H·DUN21/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.830.500.570.311.06
vs Stronger (14)0.290.860.380.500.171.33
vs Similar (16)0.500.810.670.670.400.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (20)
€3m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Treaty United and Finn Harps have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (3)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Treaty United and Finn Harps have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (6)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Treaty United and Finn Harps have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (11)
€2m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
TU wins
0
Draws
4
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Treaty United vs Finn Harps · H/A from TU
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/24AFinn Harps Vs TU1-2
26/07/24HTU Vs Finn Harps1-0
03/05/24AFinn Harps Vs TU1-0
29/03/24HTU Vs Finn Harps0-1
06/10/23HTU Vs Finn Harps2-0
11/08/23AFinn Harps Vs TU0-1
26/05/23HTU Vs Finn Harps0-3
14/04/23AFinn Harps Vs TU2-0

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/25AAthlone Town Vs TU0-5
14/02/25HTU Vs Cobh Ramblers2-3
18/10/24AFinn Harps Vs TU1-2
11/10/24HTU Vs UCD2-2
04/10/24ACork City Vs TU1-1
27/09/24HTU Vs Longford Town3-1
23/09/24ACobh Ramblers Vs TU0-3
20/09/24HTU Vs Athlone Town1-2
06/09/24HTU Vs Kerry1-1
30/08/24ABray Wanderers Vs TU5-0

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/25HFH Vs Dundalk0-1
14/02/25AKerry Vs FH2-0
18/10/24HFH Vs Treaty United1-2
14/10/24HFH Vs Wexford1-3
11/10/24ABray Wanderers Vs FH2-2
27/09/24AKerry Vs FH1-1
20/09/24ACork City Vs FH2-2
13/09/24HFH Vs Longford Town1-0
06/09/24AAthlone Town Vs FH1-4
30/08/24HFH Vs Cobh Ramblers2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Treaty United
Treaty United
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLW1.28
HomeDLWDL1.28
AwayLWDWW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%32%36%
AVG goals2.662.722.60
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %34%44%24%
Scored1.341.401.28
Conceded1.321.321.32
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.10
HomeWWLLL1.44
AwayWDDDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%40%16%
AVG goals2.422.202.64
Over 1.5 %70%64%76%
Over 2.5 %32%32%32%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored1.021.120.92
Conceded1.401.081.72
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet18%32%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DundalkDundalk3679
64%
2.2
7431+43
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0122.10.9
-
2Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3872
58%
1.9
7139+32
2.9
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3971
59%
1.8
6855+13
3.2
79%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
-
4UCDUCD3756
43%
1.5
4944+5
2.5
68%
46%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
5Treaty UnitedTreaty United3951
36%
1.3
5250+2
2.6
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6Longford TownLongford Town3645
33%
1.2
4359-16
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
7WexfordWexford3544
34%
1.3
4248-6
2.6
71%
49%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Finn HarpsFinn Harps3636
22%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
75%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
9KerryKerry3636
25%
1.0
4058-18
2.7
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Athlone TownAthlone Town3620
8%
0.6
2969-40
2.7
75%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Ireland: First Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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