Treaty United are tipped to win at home, with a 59% chance, while a draw sits at 23% and Finn Harps 18%. The model expects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the matchup. Treaty’s home form shows they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Finn Harps, on the road, average 0.88 scored and 2.12 conceded. Coming off a 2-2 draw with Cork City, Treaty are looking to regain momentum, while Finn Harps, after five straight defeats and a 1-3 loss to Cobh Ramblers, are desperate for a turnaround.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Home +2 handicap (93.2%), Under 5.5 (91.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.4%), and Home under 3.5 goals (85.8%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Treaty United win
57.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps win
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Treaty United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.21
1.43
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.55
0.67
2.00
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.38
1.71
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.03
1.07
1.67
0.93
2.40
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
2.29
1.00
1.86
1.00
2.71
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.81
1.12
1.50
0.88
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.3%
Under 2.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7.0%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
Treaty United goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.2%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1
6.3%
9.7%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.8%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.7%
7.0%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
4
3.1%
3.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Treaty United goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Treaty United is 1.43 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Treaty United is 0.29 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Treaty United is 2.00 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 3.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Treaty United or Draw
79.9%
Avg Implied -
58%
22%
20%
covers Treaty United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Treaty United or Finn Harps
78.0%
Avg Implied -
58%
22%
20%
covers Treaty United + Finn Harps
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Finn Harps
42.1%
Avg Implied -
58%
22%
20%
covers Draw + Finn Harps
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Treaty United over/under 0.5
Over
88.7%
Under
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 3.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Treaty United, so a minus line means Treaty United give that many goals of a start and Finn Harps receive them. At -1, Treaty United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Treaty United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Treaty United)
Treaty United -2
18.9%
Draw -2
17.6%
Finn Harps +2
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Treaty United)
Treaty United -1
36.5%
Draw -1
21.4%
Finn Harps +1
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Treaty United)
Treaty United +1
79.9%
Draw +1
11.8%
Finn Harps -1
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Treaty United)
Treaty United +2
91.7%
Draw +2
5.7%
Finn Harps -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Treaty United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.50
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.64
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.20
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.43
0.14
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.64
0.14
0.71
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (16)
0.56
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Treaty United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.93
0.93
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
0.50
1.00
1.20
0.80
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.94
1.29
0.86
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.13
0.73
0.80
0.33
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.64
0.86
1.14
0.43
2.14
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Treaty United and Finn Harps have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Treaty United and Finn Harps have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Treaty United and Finn Harps have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Longford Town
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Bray Wanderers
Wexford