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Treaty United vs Kerry Result & Analysis

Date: 04/08/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Treaty United
Treaty United
Vs
63%
22%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Treaty United win✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kerry win✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W12L21W11D00D01L11D21W22D23LH·LON23/05A·COB30/05H·BRA13/06A·DUN20/06H·WEX23/06H·FIN27/06A·UCD04/07H·COB11/07A·ATH25/07A·BRA01/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.102.000.931.441.25
vs Stronger (14)1.431.072.140.860.711.29
vs Similar (14)2.001.211.671.172.251.25
vs Weaker (2)1.500.503.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KerryKerry

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L20W22D21W01L34L04L13L03L40WA·DUN23/05H·LON30/05A·ATH13/06H·BRA20/06A·COB23/06A·WEX27/06H·DUN04/07A·LON12/07H·UCD25/07H·ATH01/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.671.201.001.072.33
vs Stronger (23)0.781.870.601.400.922.23
vs Similar (7)2.291.002.400.202.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.7%
Under 2.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%
1-1 ✓
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.1%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
4.7%
Treaty United goals ↓
Kerry goals →
01234
05.7%3.5%2.1%0.7%0.2%
19.1%10%4.4%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.7%1.5%0.3%
37.4%7.0%3.3%1.0%0.2%
43.9%3.7%1.7%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Treaty United goals (down), columns = Kerry goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dundalk
2.19
Cobh Ramblers
1.89
Bray Wanderers
1.82
UCD
1.51
Treaty United
1.31
Wexford
1.26
Longford Town
1.25
Finn Harps
1.00
Kerry
1.00
Athlone Town
0.56
Treaty United is 0.31 points better than Kerry in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dundalk
2.06
Cobh Ramblers
1.87
Bray Wanderers
1.74
Treaty United
1.33
UCD
1.32
Wexford
1.20
Longford Town
1.19
Finn Harps
1.17
Kerry
1.11
Athlone Town
0.81
Treaty United is 0.22 goals better than Kerry in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dundalk
0.86
Cobh Ramblers
1.03
UCD
1.19
Treaty United
1.28
Wexford
1.37
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.58
Kerry
1.61
Longford Town
1.64
Athlone Town
1.92
Treaty United is 0.33 goals better than Kerry in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.61).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W00D00D00D00D00D02L10WH·LON23/05A·COB30/05H·BRA13/06A·DUN20/06H·WEX23/06H·FIN27/06A·UCD04/07H·COB11/07A·ATH25/07A·BRA01/08
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.330.570.070.440.56
vs Stronger (14)0.360.290.570.140.140.43
vs Similar (14)0.640.360.500.000.750.62
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KerryKerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D10W00D31W01L02L02L30WA·DUN23/05H·LON30/05A·ATH13/06H·BRA20/06A·COB23/06A·WEX27/06H·DUN04/07A·LON12/07H·UCD25/07H·ATH01/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.600.730.470.670.73
vs Stronger (23)0.520.740.400.700.620.77
vs Similar (7)1.290.141.400.001.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W11D11D11D00D01L11D21W20W13LH·LON23/05A·COB30/05H·BRA13/06A·DUN20/06H·WEX23/06H·FIN27/06A·UCD04/07H·COB11/07A·ATH25/07A·BRA01/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.771.430.861.000.69
vs Stronger (14)1.070.791.570.710.570.86
vs Similar (14)1.360.861.171.171.500.62
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KerryKerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W22D11D01L03L03L11D01L10WA·DUN23/05H·LON30/05A·ATH13/06H·BRA20/06A·COB23/06A·WEX27/06H·DUN04/07A·LON12/07H·UCD25/07H·ATH01/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.070.470.530.401.60
vs Stronger (23)0.261.130.200.700.311.46
vs Similar (7)1.000.861.000.201.002.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (20)
€3m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Treaty United and Kerry have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (3)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Treaty United and Kerry have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (6)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Treaty United and Kerry have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (11)
€2m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
TU wins
2
Draws
2
KER wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Treaty United vs Kerry · H/A from TU
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/25AKerry Vs TU1-0
04/04/25HTU Vs Kerry3-0
06/09/24HTU Vs Kerry1-1
03/06/24AKerry Vs TU2-1
12/04/24HTU Vs Kerry0-0
01/03/24AKerry Vs TU0-1
25/08/23HTU Vs Kerry3-1
07/07/23AKerry Vs TU2-3

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/25ABray Wanderers Vs TU3-2
25/07/25AAthlone Town Vs TU2-2
11/07/25HTU Vs Cobh Ramblers2-1
04/07/25AUCD Vs TU1-1
27/06/25HTU Vs Finn Harps0-1
23/06/25HTU Vs Wexford0-0
20/06/25ADundalk Vs TU1-1
13/06/25HTU Vs Bray Wanderers2-1
30/05/25ACobh Ramblers Vs TU2-1
23/05/25HTU Vs Longford Town5-1

KerryKerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/25HKER Vs Athlone Town4-0
25/07/25HKER Vs UCD0-3
12/07/25ALongford Town Vs KER3-1
04/07/25HKER Vs Dundalk0-4
27/06/25AWexford Vs KER4-3
23/06/25ACobh Ramblers Vs KER1-0
20/06/25HKER Vs Bray Wanderers2-1
13/06/25AAthlone Town Vs KER2-2
30/05/25HKER Vs Longford Town2-0
23/05/25ADundalk Vs KER2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Treaty United
Treaty United
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWDL1.32
HomeWWDLW1.62
AwayLDDDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%46%23%
AVG goals2.602.582.62
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %28%33%23%
Scored1.421.581.27
Conceded1.181.001.35
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.90
HomeWWLLW1.36
AwayLDLLL0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%40%8%
AVG goals2.762.443.08
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %48%40%56%
Over 3.5 %26%16%36%
Scored1.081.200.96
Conceded1.681.242.12
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet18%28%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DundalkDundalk3679
64%
2.2
7431+43
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0122.10.9
-
2Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3872
58%
1.9
7139+32
2.9
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3971
59%
1.8
6855+13
3.2
79%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
-
4UCDUCD3756
43%
1.5
4944+5
2.5
68%
46%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
5Treaty UnitedTreaty United3951
36%
1.3
5250+2
2.6
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6Longford TownLongford Town3645
33%
1.2
4359-16
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
7WexfordWexford3544
34%
1.3
4248-6
2.6
71%
49%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Finn HarpsFinn Harps3636
22%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
75%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
9KerryKerry3636
25%
1.0
4058-18
2.7
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Athlone TownAthlone Town3620
8%
0.6
2969-40
2.7
75%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Ireland: First Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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