Treaty United are coming off a defeat, having lost 0-2 to Cobh Ramblers, but they've shown resilience in recent matches. Longford Town, on the other hand, are also reeling from a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Athlone Town. The model predicts a Home win, with a 48% chance of Treaty United securing three points. The match is expected to be an open affair, with an average of 3.2 goals expected.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.4%. Treaty United have been scoring an average of 1.85 goals per match at home, while conceding 1.23. Longford Town have averaged 1.31 goals scored away from home, but have been conceding 1.92. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 83.4% probability, and a notable edge of 11%. This selection is a strong pick, as it suggests the model is confident in the match producing more than one goal. The probabilities for the home win, draw, and away win are 48%, 25%, and 27%, respectively.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Longford Town edged past Treaty United 0-1, with the home side's recent form storyline coming to an abrupt end. The win extends their run of consecutive losses to four. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was wrong. The model had picked a home win, with a pre-match probability of 48%.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 missed, with a probability of 83.4%. The model's other selection, a home win, was also incorrect. Longford Town's recent form had been marked by a similar narrative, coming off a defeat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Treaty United win✗ Miss
47.5%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.37
Edge
+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.48
Dafabet
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Bet365
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.17
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Longford Town win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.70
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.85
Dafabet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.75
William Hil
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Treaty United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.23
1.67
1.20
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (10)
1.50
1.40
1.83
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.44
1.75
0.75
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.91
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.83
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Longford Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.47
1.40
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.82
1.14
1.86
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
1.53
1.75
1.00
1.18
1.91
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.4%
@ 1.27+11.5%
Under 1.5
16.6%
@ 3.24-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.89+12.3%
Under 2.5
38.9%
@ 1.81-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.95
SBO
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.8%
@ 3.15+9.9%
Under 3.5
61.2%
@ 1.28-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.14
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.9%
@ 1.69+8.9%
No
37.1%
@ 1.98-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
10Bet
1.70
No
Unibet
2.05
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 5.71+3.9%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.42+4.3%
2-0
7.0%@ 10.79+3.0%
1-2
7.0%@ 9.33+2.4%
1-0
6.7%@ 7.48+1.0%
2-2
6.3%@ 12.38+2.9%
3-1
5.7%@ 17.59+3.3%
0-0
5.3%@ 8.57+0.3%
Treaty United goals ↓
Longford Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.7%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
1
6.7%
11%
7.0%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.4%
6.3%
2.8%
1.0%
3
4.2%
5.7%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.9%
2.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Treaty United goals (down), columns = Longford Town goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.80
Longford Town
1.80
Treaty United
1.80
Bray Wanderers
1.80
UCD
1.40
Athlone Town
1.40
Wexford
1.40
Cobh Ramblers
1.20
Finn Harps
0.00
Treaty United and Longford Town are level in average points per game (both 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.80
Bray Wanderers
2.80
Longford Town
2.40
Kerry
2.40
UCD
2.00
Athlone Town
1.40
Wexford
1.40
Treaty United
1.00
Cobh Ramblers
0.80
Finn Harps
0.20
Treaty United is 1.40 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Treaty United
1.00
Athlone Town
1.20
Kerry
1.20
Longford Town
1.40
Cobh Ramblers
1.40
Bray Wanderers
1.40
Wexford
1.80
UCD
2.20
Cork City
2.40
Finn Harps
3.20
Treaty United is 0.40 goals better than Longford Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Treaty United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.47
0.33
0.40
0.20
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.83
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.33
0.25
0.00
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.36
0.45
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Longford Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.55
0.43
0.29
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.58
0.75
0.50
0.45
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.4%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+11.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Bray Wanderers
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Wexford
Cobh Ramblers
Finn Harps