Treaty United and UCD face a tightly contested fixture, with the model favouring a home win at 41%. The expected total is 2.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% probability. Treaty United, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while UCD, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The home win probability is 41%, the draw 27%, and the away win 31%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 5.5 (93.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Home +2 handicap (86.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.0%) and Under 4.5 (84.7%). The match is balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Treaty United win
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCD win
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Treaty United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.21
1.43
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.55
0.67
2.00
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.38
1.71
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UCD
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.50
2.07
1.47
1.80
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.22
1.00
2.40
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.81
1.71
1.90
1.70
1.73
1.73
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
2-0
7.1%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
Treaty United goals ↓
UCD goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.5%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.1%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.7%
4.6%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Treaty United goals (down), columns = UCD goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Treaty United is 0.14 points worse than UCD in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Treaty United is 1.14 goals worse than UCD in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Treaty United is 0.86 goals better than UCD in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Treaty United or Draw
69.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
30%
covers Treaty United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Treaty United or UCD
72.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
30%
covers Treaty United + UCD
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or UCD
57.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
30%
covers Draw + UCD
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Treaty United over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5
Over
71.9%
Under
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Treaty United, so a minus line means Treaty United give that many goals of a start and UCD receive them. At -1, Treaty United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Treaty United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Treaty United)
Treaty United -2
8.7%
Draw -2
13.1%
UCD +2
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Treaty United)
Treaty United -1
21.7%
Draw -1
20.6%
UCD +1
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Treaty United)
Treaty United +1
69.7%
Draw +1
16.8%
UCD -1
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Treaty United)
Treaty United +2
86.6%
Draw +2
8.9%
UCD -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Treaty United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.50
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.64
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.20
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.43
0.14
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UCD
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.73
0.87
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.56
1.00
0.60
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.76
0.60
1.00
1.09
0.55
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Treaty United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.93
0.93
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
0.50
1.00
1.20
0.80
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.94
1.29
0.86
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (UCD) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UCD
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.33
0.60
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
1.40
0.40
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.95
1.30
0.70
0.64
1.18
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCD over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
UCD · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eanna Clancy57%
Adam Verdon43%
Harvey O'Brien29%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Jack Keaney23%
Sean Brennan23%
Adam Wells23%
Dara Keane18%
Kian Moore17%
Harry Curtis17%
Donal Higgins12%
Mikey Raggett10%
Brendan Barr9%
Danu Kinsella Bishop7%
Evan Osam0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Daniel Norris0%
Daniel Babb0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Gallagher17%
Mikey Raggett10%
Ciaran Behan9%
Daniel Norris9%
Sean Brennan8%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Danu Kinsella Bishop0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danu Kinsella Bishop21%
Brendan Barr0%
Jack Keaney0%
Evan Osam0%
Dara Keane0%
Michael Gallagher0%
Donal Higgins0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ciaran Behan0%
Sean Brennan0%
Adam Wells0%
Adam Verdon0%
Harvey O'Brien0%
Daniel Norris0%
Kian Moore0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mikey Raggett0%
Daniel Babb0%
Harry Curtis0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Jake Doyle0%
Luke O'Regan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Longford Town
Cork City
Athlone Town
Cobh Ramblers
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps