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Trefelin vs Cardiff Draconians Result & Analysis

Date: 29/11/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 3-3
Trefelin
Trefelin
Vs
70%
20%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cardiff Draconians
Cardiff Draconians
Wales: Welsh Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trefelin win✗ Miss
69.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TrefelinTrefelin

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-633D11D20W50W00D20W61W20W20W20WH·LLA25/08A·BAG06/09H·AMM12/09A·YNY27/09H·AFA04/10A·CAM10/10A·SWA18/10H·PON01/11A·ABE08/11H·CAR14/11← FAW ChampionshipWelsh Cup →
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.071.801.072.271.07
vs Stronger (22)2.091.091.910.912.271.27
vs Similar (8)1.881.001.501.502.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff Draconians) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D31W42W20W21W00D31W30W25L43WA·BAG13/09A·AFA16/09H·CWM20/09A·LLA27/09H·CWM04/10A·YNY11/10A·DIN18/10H·TRE25/10A·CAM01/11H·TRE08/11← FAW ChampionshipWelsh Cup →
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.881.182.291.291.601.10
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (12)2.001.002.601.401.570.71
vs Weaker (4)2.001.751.501.002.502.50
Clean sheet %29% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.4%
1-0
11.8%
1-1
9.7%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
5.0%
Trefelin goals ↓
Cardiff Draconians goals →
01234
06.8%3.3%1.4%0.3%0.1%
112%9.7%3.1%0.7%0.1%
213%9.4%3.3%0.8%0.1%
39.5%6.6%2.3%0.5%0.1%
45.0%3.5%1.2%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Trefelin goals (down), columns = Cardiff Draconians goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
3.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
llanelli AFC
2.40
Trearddur Bay
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.25
Caersws
2.25
Airbus UK
2.25
Llandudno
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Trefelin
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Flint Town United
2.00
Llantwit Major
2.00
Swansea University
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.75
Morriston Town
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Kinmel Bay
1.50
Llanefydd
1.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Briton Ferry
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Holyhead Hotspur
1.50
Gresford Athletic
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.25
Barry Town
1.00
Caernarfon Town
1.00
Evans & Williams
1.00
Cefn Cribwr
1.00
Saltney Town
1.00
Afan United
1.00
Nefyn United
1.00
Tredegar Town
1.00
Lliswerry
1.00
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.00
Goytre United
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
CPD Sychdyn United
1.00
Berriew
1.00
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.00
Llanfair United
1.00
Glynneath Town
1.00
Dinas Powys
1.00
Llanrug United
1.00
Blaenavon Blues
1.00
Port Talbot Town
1.00
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.00
Pwllheli
1.00
Abercarn United
1.00
Rhostyllen
1.00
Forden United
1.00
Broughton United FC
1.00
Dolgellau Athletic
1.00
Hawarden Rangers
1.00
Penygraig United FC
1.00
Bow Street
1.00
Welshpool Town
1.00
Tata Steel
1.00
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.00
Ynyshir Albions
1.00
Treowen Stars
1.00
Caerphilly Athletic
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Newtown AFC
1.00
Afan Lido
1.00
Pontyclun
1.00
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.00
Garden Village
1.00
Canton Liberal
1.00
Rhayader Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.67
Ruthin Town
0.50
Rhyl
0.50
Baglan Dragons
0.00
Queens Park
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Cwmbran Town
0.00
NFA
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Caldicot Town
0.00
Cwmbran Celtic
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Brickfield Rangers
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Trefelin is 0.50 points better than Cardiff Draconians in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
5.83
Gresford Athletic
5.00
Buckley Town
4.50
Denbigh Town
3.50
Caersws
3.50
Flint Town United
3.50
Llandudno
3.33
Trefelin
3.33
Barry Town
3.00
Kinmel Bay
3.00
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Celtic
3.00
Caerau (Ely)
3.00
Porthmadog
3.00
Airbus UK
2.75
Rhyl
2.50
Penydarren BGC
2.33
Swansea University
2.33
llanelli AFC
2.20
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.17
Briton Ferry
2.00
Carmarthen Town
1.75
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Bala Town
1.67
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Evans & Williams
1.46
Cefn Cribwr
1.46
Saltney Town
1.46
Afan United
1.46
Nefyn United
1.46
Tredegar Town
1.46
Lliswerry
1.46
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.46
CPD Sychdyn United
1.46
Berriew
1.46
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.46
Llanfair United
1.46
Glynneath Town
1.46
Dinas Powys
1.46
Llanrug United
1.46
Blaenavon Blues
1.46
Port Talbot Town
1.46
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.46
Pwllheli
1.46
Abercarn United
1.46
Rhostyllen
1.46
Forden United
1.46
Broughton United FC
1.46
Dolgellau Athletic
1.46
Hawarden Rangers
1.46
Penygraig United FC
1.46
Bow Street
1.46
Welshpool Town
1.46
Tata Steel
1.46
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.46
Ynyshir Albions
1.46
Treowen Stars
1.46
Caerphilly Athletic
1.46
Pontyclun
1.46
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.46
Garden Village
1.46
Canton Liberal
1.46
Rhayader Town
1.46
Pill AFC
1.33
Trearddur Bay
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Ammanford AFC
1.00
Baglan Dragons
1.00
Queens Park
1.00
Morriston Town
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Cwmbran Town
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
NFA
1.00
Caldicot Town
1.00
Brickfield Rangers
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Cardiff MET
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Caernarfon Town
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Trefelin is 1.83 goals better than Cardiff Draconians in terms of goals scored per game (3.33 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.00
llanelli AFC
0.40
Ammanford AFC
0.50
Cardiff Draconians
0.50
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Morriston Town
0.67
Trearddur Bay
0.67
Taffs Well
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
Llwydcoed
1.00
Penybont
1.00
Denbigh Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.00
Briton Ferry
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Llantwit Major
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Swansea University
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Ruthin Town
1.50
Flint Town United
1.50
Airbus UK
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Trefelin
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Caersws
1.75
Llandudno
2.00
St Asaph City
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
NFA
2.00
Caldicot Town
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Newport City
2.00
Penrhyncoch
2.00
Carmarthen Town
2.00
Evans & Williams
2.17
Cefn Cribwr
2.17
Saltney Town
2.17
Afan United
2.17
Nefyn United
2.17
Tredegar Town
2.17
Lliswerry
2.17
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
2.17
CPD Sychdyn United
2.17
Berriew
2.17
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
2.17
Llanfair United
2.17
Glynneath Town
2.17
Dinas Powys
2.17
Llanrug United
2.17
Blaenavon Blues
2.17
Port Talbot Town
2.17
Pentwynmawr Athletic
2.17
Pwllheli
2.17
Abercarn United
2.17
Rhostyllen
2.17
Forden United
2.17
Broughton United FC
2.17
Dolgellau Athletic
2.17
Hawarden Rangers
2.17
Penygraig United FC
2.17
Bow Street
2.17
Welshpool Town
2.17
Tata Steel
2.17
Cwmbach Royal Stars
2.17
Ynyshir Albions
2.17
Treowen Stars
2.17
Caerphilly Athletic
2.17
Pontyclun
2.17
Cwm Welfare AFC
2.17
Garden Village
2.17
Canton Liberal
2.17
Rhayader Town
2.17
Colwyn Bay
2.33
Kinmel Bay
2.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
2.50
Gresford Athletic
2.50
Barry Town
3.00
Cwmbran Town
3.00
Brickfield Rangers
3.00
Llanberis
4.00
Cwmbran Celtic
4.00
Rhyl
4.00
Baglan Dragons
5.00
Cefn Albion
5.00
Guilsfield
5.00
Queens Park
6.00
Trefelin is 1.17 goals worse than Cardiff Draconians in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Trefelin or Draw✓ Hit
89.9%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
10%
covers Trefelin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trefelin or Cardiff Draconians✗ Miss
79.6%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
10%
covers Trefelin + Cardiff Draconians
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cardiff Draconians✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
70%
20%
10%
covers Draw + Cardiff Draconians
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Trefelin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.0%
Under
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Trefelin, so a minus line means Trefelin give that many goals of a start and Cardiff Draconians receive them. At -1, Trefelin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Trefelin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Trefelin)Actual: Cardiff Draconians
Trefelin -2
24.4%
Draw -2
21.4%
Cardiff Draconians +2
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Trefelin)Actual: Cardiff Draconians
Trefelin -1
45.8%
Draw -1
23.7%
Cardiff Draconians +1
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Trefelin)Actual: Trefelin
Trefelin +1
89.9%
Draw +1
7.2%
Cardiff Draconians -1
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Trefelin)Actual: Trefelin
Trefelin +2
97.1%
Draw +2
2.3%
Cardiff Draconians -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TrefelinTrefelin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L10W30W00D00D11D00D00D10WH·LLA25/08A·BAG06/09H·AMM12/09A·YNY27/09H·AFA04/10A·CAM10/10A·SWA18/10H·PON01/11A·ABE08/11H·CAR14/11← FAW ChampionshipWelsh Cup →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.400.470.730.67
vs Stronger (22)0.590.640.360.450.820.82
vs Similar (8)0.500.380.500.500.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff Draconians) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W20W01L00D20W10W24L12LA·BAG13/09A·AFA16/09H·CWM20/09A·LLA27/09H·CWM04/10A·YNY11/10A·DIN18/10H·TRE25/10A·CAM01/11H·TRE08/11← FAW ChampionshipWelsh Cup →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.620.570.570.780.67
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.500.600.800.710.29
vs Weaker (3)1.001.330.500.002.004.00
Clean sheet %62% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TrefelinTrefelin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W10W10W20W00D20W50W20W20W10WH·LLA25/08A·BAG06/09H·AMM12/09A·YNY27/09H·AFA04/10A·CAM10/10A·SWA18/10H·PON01/11A·ABE08/11H·CAR14/11← FAW ChampionshipWelsh Cup →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.501.400.601.530.40
vs Stronger (22)1.500.451.550.451.450.45
vs Similar (8)1.380.621.001.001.750.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff Draconians) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W32W00D20W00D11D20W01L31WA·BAG13/09A·AFA16/09H·CWM20/09A·LLA27/09H·CWM04/10A·YNY11/10A·DIN18/10H·TRE25/10A·CAM01/11H·TRE08/11← FAW ChampionshipWelsh Cup →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.120.621.710.710.670.56
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (12)1.330.502.000.600.860.43
vs Weaker (3)0.671.001.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff Draconians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Away under 3.5 goals99.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 7.599.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.5%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap97.1%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals96.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.593.3%-------✗ Miss
Home or Draw89.9%-------✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap89.9%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals88.0%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals84.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.584.4%-------✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals83.4%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away79.6%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.578.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
NC (4)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
TRE wins
0
Draws
0
CD wins

Head-to-head

Trefelin vs Cardiff Draconians · H/A from TRE
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

TrefelinTrefelin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/11/25HTRE Vs Carmarthen Town2-0
08/11/25AAberystwyth Town Vs TRE0-2
01/11/25HTRE Vs Pontypridd Town2-0
18/10/25ASwansea University Vs TRE1-6
10/10/25ACambrian & Clydach Vs TRE0-2
04/10/25HTRE Vs Afan Lido0-0
27/09/25AYnyshir Albions Vs TRE0-5
12/09/25HTRE Vs Ammanford AFC2-0
06/09/25ABaglan Dragons Vs TRE1-1
25/08/25HTRE Vs Llantwit Major3-3

Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25HCD Vs Treowen Stars4-3
01/11/25ACambrian & Clydach Vs CD5-2
25/10/25HCD Vs Trethomas Bluebirds3-0
18/10/25ADinas Powys Vs CD1-3
11/10/25AYnyshir Albions Vs CD0-0
04/10/25HCD Vs Cwmbran Celtic2-1
27/09/25ALlantwit Major Vs CD0-2
20/09/25HCD Vs Cwmbran Celtic4-2
16/09/25AAfan Lido Vs CD1-3
13/09/25ABaglan Dragons Vs CD0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Trefelin
Trefelin
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.86
HomeDWDWW1.88
AwayDWWWW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.203.083.32
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %42%36%48%
Scored1.981.962.00
Conceded1.221.121.32
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet32%40%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Cardiff Draconians
Cardiff Draconians
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.88
HomeWWWWW2.14
AwayWWDWL1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %59%71%50%
AVG goals3.063.572.70
Over 1.5 %71%71%70%
Over 2.5 %65%71%60%
Over 3.5 %35%43%30%
Scored1.882.291.60
Conceded1.181.291.10
BTTS53%57%50%
Clean Sheet29%14%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LlandudnoLlandudno3080
87%
2.7
7722+55
3.3
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.7
-
2TrefelinTrefelin3078
83%
2.6
8317+66
3.3
93%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.6
-
3Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach3076
80%
2.5
7520+55
3.2
87%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.7
-
4Airbus UKAirbus UK3075
80%
2.5
9322+71
3.8
93%
83%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.10.7
-
5HolywellHolywell3060
60%
2.0
7840+38
3.9
87%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.3
-
6Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)3160
58%
1.9
6734+33
3.3
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.1
-
7Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC3060
57%
2.0
4926+23
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.9
-
8Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3048
50%
1.6
5149+2
3.3
87%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
9RhylRhyl3046
47%
1.5
4655-9
3.4
80%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
10Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town3045
37%
1.5
4538+7
2.8
67%
37%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3044
43%
1.5
3538-3
2.4
63%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
12GuilsfieldGuilsfield3043
43%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
77%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
13Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra3041
40%
1.4
3845-7
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
14Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians3040
40%
1.3
5048+2
3.3
77%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
15Denbigh TownDenbigh Town3040
40%
1.3
5259-7
3.7
87%
77%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
16Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major3037
30%
1.2
4447-3
3.0
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
17CaerswsCaersws3037
37%
1.2
4651-5
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
18Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers3037
37%
1.2
3949-10
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
19Treowen StarsTreowen Stars3037
33%
1.2
5163-12
3.8
90%
70%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
20Newport CityNewport City3037
30%
1.2
3648-12
2.8
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
21Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur3036
33%
1.2
4449-5
3.1
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
22PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch3035
33%
1.2
4553-8
3.3
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
23Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3034
30%
1.1
4651-5
3.2
80%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
24Afan LidoAfan Lido3030
30%
1.0
3257-25
3.0
67%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
25Buckley TownBuckley Town3030
30%
1.0
5077-27
4.2
90%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.6
-
26Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds3029
20%
1.0
4562-17
3.6
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
27Flint MountainFlint Mountain3029
30%
1.0
3961-22
3.3
83%
73%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
28Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic3028
27%
0.9
4787-40
4.5
90%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.9
-
29Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons3125
16%
0.8
2653-27
2.5
68%
48%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.7
-
30Ruthin TownRuthin Town3023
20%
0.8
3664-28
3.3
77%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
31Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions3023
17%
0.8
2756-29
2.8
80%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
32Cwmbran CelticCwmbran Celtic3010
3%
0.3
2578-53
3.4
83%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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