Treowen Stars are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of a home victory, 22% for a draw and 25% for Llantwit Major. The model projects a lively encounter, averaging 3.7 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Treowen, a 9.1% probability. The Stars have been scoring 1.7 goals per game at home against similar opposition while conceding 1.5, whereas Llantwit have managed 1.45 goals and allowed 1.73 on the road. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with the top picks reflecting that: Under 7.5 goals (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Under 6.5 (92.0%), Over 1.5 (89.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.0%), Home +2 handicap (88.7%), Under 5.5 (83.3%) and Home under 3.5 goals (81.8%). Treowen’s recent three-game winning streak and a 4-2 win over Carmarthen Town contrast with Llantwit’s five-match losing run and a 1-5 defeat to Aberystwyth Town, underscoring the home side’s advantage.
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 2.10 | 1.88 | 1.56 | 2.21 | 2.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 2.18 | 1.91 | 1.92 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 2.70 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.62 | 2.62 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 2.38 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Llantwit Major goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.91 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 1.38 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.27 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.59 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 0.95 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 93.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 92.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 90.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 89.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 89.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 89.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 87.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 83.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 83.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 78.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | H | 1-1 |
Treowen Stars| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 23/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-3 |
Llantwit Major| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |