Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Town Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026

Time: 13:30

Final 2-3

Treowen Stars

41%

25%

34%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Pontypridd Town

Wales: FAW Championship

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Treowen Stars face Pontypridd Town at home in the Wales: FAW Championship, with a high-scoring match expected as the model predicts 3.3 goals on average. The Treowen Stars have been in good form, coming off a win against Aberystwyth Town, while Pontypridd Town are on a 2-game winning run. The Treowen Stars have scored an average of 1.55 goals at home, conceding 1.82, while Pontypridd Town have averaged 0.83 goals away, conceding 1.67.

The model favours a Treowen Stars home win, with a 41% chance of success, and a 25% chance of a draw. Pontypridd Town have a 34% chance of winning. The most likely score is 2-1, but the model also predicts a 1-1 draw. The Treowen Stars have scored 1.55 goals at home against similar opponents, and conceded 1.82, while Pontypridd Town have scored 0.83 goals away against similar opponents, and conceded 1.67.

The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 85.5%. The Treowen Stars have a 41% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 34% chance of losing. The model's selection, Over 1.5 goals, has a 85.5% chance of success.

Results analysis

The Treowen Stars' recent resurgence came to an abrupt end as they lost 2-3 at home to Pontypridd Town, handing the visitors a surprise win. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through. The model's call was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, hit, with a 85.5% probability. Pontypridd Town's away form, on a 2-game winning run, proved decisive, while Treowen Stars' recent win was not enough to sustain them.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Treowen Stars win✗ Miss

41.2%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

24.8%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Pontypridd Town win✓ Hit

34.1%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Treowen Stars

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

4.4

Avg scored

1.8

Avg conceded

2.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.70	2.10	1.80	1.73	1.60	2.47
vs Stronger (2)	2.50	1.00	4.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
vs Similar (16)	1.75	2.19	1.50	1.50	2.00	2.88
vs Weaker (12)	1.50	2.17	1.83	2.17	1.17	2.17
Clean sheet %	17% (-5pp vs league)

This opponent (Pontypridd Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pontypridd Town

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.6

Avg scored

1.8

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.53	1.70	1.87	1.80	1.20	1.60
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (18)	1.44	1.78	1.89	1.56	1.00	2.00
vs Weaker (12)	1.67	1.58	1.83	2.17	1.50	1.00
Clean sheet %	23% (+1pp vs league)

This opponent (Treowen Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

85.5%

Under 1.5

14.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

64.7%

Under 2.5

35.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

42.7%

Under 3.5

57.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

66.7%

33.3%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

10.9%

2-1

8.7%

1-2

7.8%

2-2

6.8%

2-0

5.5%

1-0

5.3%

3-1

5.1%

0-1

4.7%

Treowen Stars goals ↓

	Pontypridd Town goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	4.7%	4.5%	2.4%	0.9%
1	5.3%	11%	7.8%	4.1%	1.6%
2	5.5%	8.7%	6.8%	3.6%	1.4%
3	3.2%	5.1%	4.0%	2.1%	0.8%
4	1.4%	2.2%	1.8%	0.9%	0.4%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Treowen Stars goals (down), columns = Pontypridd Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Bala Town

2.59

llanelli AFC

2.42

Caerau (Ely)

1.94

Newtown AFC

1.60

Rhyl

1.53

Carmarthen Town

1.50

Aberystwyth Town

1.47

Guilsfield

1.43

Llanuwchllyn

1.41

Bangor City 1876 FC

1.41

Caerphilly Athletic

1.41

Pontardawe Town

1.41

Porthmadog

1.41

Swansea University

1.41

Mold Alexandra

1.37

Cardiff Draconians

1.33

Denbigh Town

1.33

Newport City

1.23

Llantwit Major

1.23

Brickfield Rangers

1.23

Caersws

1.23

Treowen Stars

1.23

Holyhead Hotspur

1.20

Penrhyncoch

1.17

Pontypridd Town

1.13

Afan Lido

1.00

Buckley Town

1.00

Trethomas Bluebirds

0.97

Gresford Athletic

0.93

Baglan Dragons

0.81

Ruthin Town

0.77

Ynyshir Albions

0.77

Treowen Stars is 0.10 points better than Pontypridd Town in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.13).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Bala Town

3.00

llanelli AFC

2.80

Caerau (Ely)

2.16

Denbigh Town

1.73

Newtown AFC

1.70

Treowen Stars

1.70

Cardiff Draconians

1.67

Guilsfield

1.67

Buckley Town

1.67

Llanuwchllyn

1.63

Bangor City 1876 FC

1.63

Caerphilly Athletic

1.63

Pontardawe Town

1.63

Porthmadog

1.63

Swansea University

1.63

Gresford Athletic

1.57

Caersws

1.53

Rhyl

1.53

Pontypridd Town

1.53

Carmarthen Town

1.50

Penrhyncoch

1.50

Trethomas Bluebirds

1.50

Llantwit Major

1.47

Holyhead Hotspur

1.47

Brickfield Rangers

1.30

Mold Alexandra

1.27

Newport City

1.20

Ruthin Town

1.20

Aberystwyth Town

1.17

Afan Lido

1.07

Ynyshir Albions

0.90

Baglan Dragons

0.84

Treowen Stars is 0.17 goals better than Pontypridd Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Bala Town

0.89

llanelli AFC

0.95

Caerau (Ely)

1.10

Carmarthen Town

1.27

Aberystwyth Town

1.27

Mold Alexandra

1.50

Llantwit Major

1.57

Cardiff Draconians

1.60

Newport City

1.60

Guilsfield

1.60

Llanuwchllyn

1.63

Bangor City 1876 FC

1.63

Caerphilly Athletic

1.63

Pontardawe Town

1.63

Porthmadog

1.63

Swansea University

1.63

Holyhead Hotspur

1.63

Brickfield Rangers

1.63

Newtown AFC

1.63

Caersws

1.70

Pontypridd Town

1.70

Baglan Dragons

1.71

Penrhyncoch

1.77

Rhyl

1.83

Ynyshir Albions

1.87

Afan Lido

1.90

Denbigh Town

1.97

Trethomas Bluebirds

2.07

Treowen Stars

2.10

Ruthin Town

2.13

Buckley Town

2.57

Gresford Athletic

2.90

Treowen Stars is 0.40 goals worse than Pontypridd Town in terms of goals conceded per game (2.10 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	85.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BT (36)

€1m

LA (37)

€1m

AT (39)

€0m

NC (44)

€0m

RHY (39)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AT (0)

€0m

BT (0)

€0m

LA (0)

€0m

NC (0)

€0m

RHY (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AT (0)

€0m

BT (0)

€0m

LA (0)

€0m

NC (0)

€0m

RHY (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AT (0)

€0m

BT (0)

€0m

LA (0)

€0m

NC (0)

€0m

RHY (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Town · H/A from TS

Date	H/A	Game	Score
14/03/26	H	TS Vs Pontypridd Town	2-2
03/10/25	A	Pontypridd Town Vs TS	5-2

Treowen Stars

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
18/04/26	H	TS Vs Carmarthen Town	4-1
03/04/26	A	Trefelin Vs TS	6-0
28/03/26	H	TS Vs Ammanford AFC	1-5
23/03/26	H	TS Vs Afan Lido	0-1
20/03/26	A	Newport City Vs TS	2-3
17/03/26	H	TS Vs Baglan Dragons	4-1
14/03/26	H	TS Vs Pontypridd Town	2-2
10/03/26	A	Caerau (Ely) Vs TS	3-0
07/03/26	H	TS Vs Cambrian & Clydach	2-2
03/03/26	A	Llantwit Major Vs TS	3-2

Pontypridd Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
18/04/26	H	PT Vs Caerau (Ely)	0-0
11/04/26	A	Cardiff Draconians Vs PT	2-2
04/04/26	A	Carmarthen Town Vs PT	0-1
27/03/26	H	PT Vs Trefelin	1-3
20/03/26	A	Trethomas Bluebirds Vs PT	4-2
17/03/26	A	Cwmbran Celtic Vs PT	2-5
14/03/26	A	Treowen Stars Vs PT	2-2
06/03/26	H	PT Vs Llantwit Major	0-4
21/02/26	H	PT Vs Baglan Dragons	2-0
14/02/26	A	Ynyshir Albions Vs PT	1-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Treowen Stars

Wales: FAW Championship

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLLLW	1.23
Home	DWLLW	1.47
Away	DLLWL	1.00

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	33%	40%	27%
AVG goals	3.80	3.53	4.07
Over 1.5 %	90%	87%	93%
Over 2.5 %	70%	67%	73%
Over 3.5 %	57%	60%	53%
Scored	1.70	1.80	1.60
Conceded	2.10	1.73	2.47
BTTS	63%	60%	67%
Clean Sheet	17%	27%	7%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Pontypridd Town

Wales: FAW Championship

Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWDD	1.40
Home	WWLLD	1.60
Away	DWLWD	1.20

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	52%	28%
AVG goals	3.22	3.48	2.96
Over 1.5 %	82%	88%	76%
Over 2.5 %	62%	72%	52%
Over 3.5 %	44%	44%	44%
Scored	1.66	2.00	1.32
Conceded	1.56	1.48	1.64
BTTS	50%	48%	52%
Clean Sheet	28%	36%	20%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Brickfield Rangers	3	9	100%	3.0	12	2	+10	4.7	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	4.0	0.7	-
2	Swansea University	3	9	100%	3.0	9	0	+9	3.0	100%	100%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.0	0.0	-
3	Pontypridd Town	3	9	100%	3.0	10	5	+5	5.0	100%	100%	100%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.3	1.7	-
4	Carmarthen Town	3	9	100%	3.0	9	5	+4	4.7	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.0	1.7	-
5	Newtown AFC	3	7	67%	2.3	9	1	+8	3.3	100%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.0	0.3	-
6	Porthmadog	3	7	67%	2.3	5	2	+3	2.3	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	0.7	-
7	Newport City	3	6	67%	2.0	9	3	+6	4.0	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.0	1.0	-
8	Bangor City 1876 FC	3	6	67%	2.0	8	3	+5	3.7	100%	100%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.7	1.0	-
9	Treowen Stars	3	6	67%	2.0	7	4	+3	3.7	100%	100%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.3	1.3	-
10	Bala Town	2	6	100%	3.0	4	2	+2	3.0	100%	100%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	-
11	Guilsfield	3	5	33%	1.7	5	4	+1	3.0	100%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	1.3	-
12	Caerau (Ely)	3	4	33%	1.3	8	7	+1	5.0	100%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.7	2.3	-
13	Rhyl	3	4	33%	1.3	5	4	+1	3.0	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	1.3	-
14	Ynyshir Albions	2	4	50%	2.0	2	1	+1	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	0.5	-
15	Mold Alexandra	3	4	33%	1.3	5	5	+0	3.3	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	1.7	-
16	Caersws	3	4	33%	1.3	5	6	-1	3.7	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	2.0	-
17	Baglan Dragons	3	4	33%	1.3	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	33%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.3	1.0	-
18	Aberystwyth Town	2	3	50%	1.5	6	4	+2	5.0	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.0	2.0	-
19	Afan Lido	3	3	33%	1.0	8	8	+0	5.3	100%	100%	100%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.7	2.7	-
20	Denbigh Town	3	3	33%	1.0	6	6	+0	4.0	100%	100%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	2.0	-
21	Ruthin Town	3	3	33%	1.0	4	5	-1	3.0	100%	100%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.7	-
22	Holyhead Hotspur	3	3	33%	1.0	3	4	-1	2.3	67%	67%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.3	-
23	Pontardawe Town	3	3	33%	1.0	5	7	-2	4.0	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	2.3	-
24	Llanuwchllyn	3	3	33%	1.0	3	11	-8	4.7	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	3.7	-
25	Trethomas Bluebirds	3	2	0%	0.7	3	5	-2	2.7	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.7	-
26	Buckley Town	3	1	0%	0.3	4	7	-3	3.7	100%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	2.3	-
27	Cardiff Draconians	3	1	0%	0.3	1	5	-4	2.0	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.3	1.7	-
28	llanelli AFC	3	1	0%	0.3	2	8	-6	3.3	100%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.7	2.7	-
29	Caerphilly Athletic	3	1	0%	0.3	0	6	-6	2.0	67%	67%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	2.0	-
30	Penrhyncoch	2	0	0%	0.0	1	8	-7	4.5	100%	100%	100%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	4.0	-
31	Llantwit Major	3	0	0%	0.0	0	9	-9	3.0	67%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	3.0	-
32	Gresford Athletic	3	0	0%	0.0	0	9	-9	3.0	67%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	3.0	-

Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

← all matches

Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Town Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Treowen Stars

Pontypridd Town

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Treowen Stars

Pontypridd Town

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature