Trepça'89 vs Ferizaj Result & Analysis

Trepça'89’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 1-0 win over Ferizaj, sets the tone for a high-scoring encounter, as the model projects an average of 3.2 goals. The predicted outcome is a home win, with the model assigning 44% to a Trepça’89 victory, 25% to a draw and 30% to a Ferizaj win. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% probability, while the expected total of 3 goals has a 22% chance. Trepça’89, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded; Ferizaj, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s sole suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.6% probability. This selection stands alone, separate from the match-result probabilities, and reflects the offensive potential of both sides.

The upset came early as Trepça'89, the pre-match favourite, failed to secure the win, ending the match in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 44% probability, but that call proved incorrect. The only other selection made by the model was Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.6% probability, and this hit as the match produced two goals. Trepça'89 had been unbeaten in their last five games, while Ferizaj were coming off a defeat, yet neither side could break the deadlock. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely total of three goals, but the outcome was a draw.