Trepça'89 vs Ferizaj Result & Analysis

Trepça'89’s defensive record is a key factor, conceding 1.36 goals on average at home against similarly matched opponents, while Ferizaj’s away defence has yielded 1.6 goals per game. The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 25% away win. The expected total goals is 2.1, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with an 83.9% chance. Trepça’89 have been unbeaten in their last five, yet Ferizaj are coming off a defeat, which adds intrigue. The home side’s average scoring of 1.27 goals per match is matched by Ferizaj’s 0.9 away goals. The model’s selections remain the same: Under 3.5 goals at 83.9%.

The upset came early as Ferizaj snatched a 0-1 away win, ending Trepça'89’s unbeaten run of five games that had seen them keep a clean sheet in their last outing. The pre-match favourite was the home win, given a 43% probability, but the model was wrong. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit with an 83.9% chance. The match finished 0-1, an away victory that contradicted the model’s expectation. The final score was 0-1, and the actual result was an away win, confirming the model’s pick was incorrect while the Under 3.5 selection proved accurate.