In this match between Trethomas Bluebirds and Baglan Dragons, the story so far is one of recent form. Trethomas Bluebirds are unbeaten in their last 5, having drawn with Llanelli AFC in their last outing, while Baglan Dragons are coming off a defeat at the hands of Swansea University.
The model predicts a home win for Trethomas Bluebirds, with a 51% probability of victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 24% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.9%.
At home, Trethomas Bluebirds have scored an average of 2.18 goals and conceded 2.27, while Baglan Dragons have scored 0.75 goals and conceded 1.75 when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.9% probability, and an edge of 3%. Trethomas Bluebirds have a 51% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of losing. The model's selections are Home win (51%), Over 1.5 (80.9%), and the actual result was a draw.
Trethomas Bluebirds' unbeaten run in their last 5 matches came to an end with a 0-0 draw against Baglan Dragons. The result was a major upset, as the home side were expected to win. However, the model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's call was not correct.
The model's selection, a Home win, was not the only one to miss the mark. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also missed, despite a high probability of 80.9%. The actual result was a Draw, which was the third most likely outcome, but not the most likely. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but it only had a 11.9% probability.
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 2.17 | 2.21 | 2.29 | 0.88 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.63 | 2.21 | 2.56 | 2.44 | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.27 | 2.09 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.77 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 1.76 | 1.11 | 2.22 | 0.50 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 1.78 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Baglan Dragons goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 0.93 | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.82 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.31 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.05 | 1.53 | 1.67 | 1.44 | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.73 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.20 | 1.10 | 0.21 | 1.36 | 0.19 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.19 | 1.14 | 0.22 | 1.44 | 0.17 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | +3.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/03/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/24 | H | 0-1 |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 4-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/02/26 | A | 0-0 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-7 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/02/26 | A | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |