Trethomas Bluebirds host Caerau (Ely) in the Wales FAW Championship, with a storyline emerging from Caerau's recent form, having drawn their last two matches. Caerau's impressive form away from home, scoring an average of 2.55 goals and conceding 1.55, against similar opponents, suggests they will be a threat. Trethomas Bluebirds, however, have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing 5 times, and have a similar home form to Caerau's away form, scoring and conceding an average of 2.09 goals. The model predicts a 47% chance of an away win, making it the favourite match result. The expected total goals is 3.9, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 8.5%. The model's selection is an away win, with Trethomas Bluebirds' home win percentage at 31%, draw percentage at 22%, and away win percentage at 47%. The model's selections are: Over 1.5 (90.6%), Over 2.5 (74.1%), and BTTS Yes (73.2%).
The win extends Trethomas Bluebirds' recent woes, their fifth consecutive draw or defeat. The final score was 2-4 in favour of Caerau (Ely), confirming the actual result was an away win. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, with the pre-match probability of 47% proving accurate. The model's call was vindicated, as Caerau (Ely) took the three points. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 90.6%, while Over 2.5 goals also came in, at 74.1%. BTTS Yes was another correct selection, with a probability of 73.2%.
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.21 | 1.93 | 0.88 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.58 | 2.16 | 2.30 | 2.20 | 0.78 | 2.11 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.36 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.37 | 1.23 | 2.21 | 1.21 | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 3.00 | 1.19 | 3.00 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.64 | 1.29 | 1.78 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Caerau (Ely) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.12 | 0.31 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.09 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.33 | 1.43 | 1.21 | 0.50 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.30 | 0.44 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.82 | 1.09 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 0.73 | 1.36 | 0.93 | 1.69 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.88 | 0.88 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.91 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.14 | 0.57 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90.6% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.13 | - | - | - | +14.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 74.1% | 1.57 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.56 | +16.6% | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 73.2% | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.44 | - | +14.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 08/08/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/02/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/08/24 | A | 2-2 |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 4-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 4-2 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 0-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |